Reese Kaplan -- Go for Gold or Plan for the Future?

The flip side to trading away your overpriced veterans for salary relief and minor league reinforcements has a contrasting type of transaction to consider as well.  What happens if you have that magical “years of control” characteristic to parlay to another team?  All of the sudden the proven player entering his twilight years is much less attractive.  The young guy with solid credentials and low costs for a few more seasons is infinitely more marketable.  Towards that end, the Mets have some of these types of players that other clubs would most certainly be interested in obtaining.  The question is which one could they afford to lose if the return in the deal was sufficient?

A few years back the hot name in the Mets draft and minor league system was Dominic Smith, the then chunky but slick-fielding first baseman who promised a John Olerud type of production.  He would be a vacuum in the field, hit for a high average and show enough power to make people forget about Keith Hernandez.  He had his ups and downs in the minors but he certainly looked promising, particularly when he put together a 2017 season in which he hit .330 with 16 HRs and 76 RBIs over 500 AAA at-bats.  The future indeed looked bright for Smith’s Mets career, but then came aborted attempts at the majors in 2017 when he hit just .198 and 2018 when he hit just .224.  Then, to complicate matters, there was the oversleeping incident in the spring of 2018 that forever set him back in the eyes of deposed manager Mickey Callaway, and then there was a progress of some Polar Bear roaring his way up the chain for his shot at the majors. 

Last season Dom Smith hit .282 with 11 HRs and 25 RBIs in just 177 big league at-bats.  Normally that would be enough to have people ordering the champagne, but it turns out that the Polar Bear would go on to win the All Star Game’s Home Run Derby and Rookie of the Year on a modest 53 HRs and 120 RBI breakthrough season.  Smith became an outfielder mostly out of necessity, and while he’s never going to make anyone forget Roberto Clemente out there, he’s certainly increased his desirability to other teams demonstrating more versatility than he’d shown prior to hitting left field out of necessity. 

If you assume 1^st base belongs to Pete Alonso as long as he remains healthy and productive, what then becomes of Mr. Smith?  He’s not yet shown the defensive acumen to be a reliable outfielder and his opportunities to play 1^st base are going to be pretty limited.  Consequently, is he the kind of player you would dangle in trade talks to other clubs who have a vacancy at 1^st base, DH or even the outfield?

The right-handed counterpart to Smith is last year’s minor league acquisition, JD Davis.  Coming off a AAA batting title, he wasn’t exactly chopped liver, but the price paid was relatively modest and when given the opportunity to play, did he ever deliver.  He finished the season hitting .307 with 22 HRs and 57 RBIs in just over 400 ABs.  He’s not a defensively gifted player and highlighted the stat lists the wrong way both at 3B and in LF. 

Going into 2020 the Mets have a bit of a quandary of what to do with Davis.  He is not really major league caliber in the infield or the outfield.  If Yoenis Cespedes (and his paycheck) come north with the club, then Davis’ opportunities shrink further. 

However, those gaudy offensive numbers (sans sign stealing) and his several years of minimum wage type of salary would make him highly attractive to just about any team.  He’s born to be a DH which would relegate your conversation to the 15 AL ballclubs, but you can imagine he would be a superior option to what most of them will be putting out there on the lineup card.  Could you afford to lose Davis in the right deal?  That all depends if you think he’s going to develop his defensive skills enough to warrant keeping him in the lineup for the bat.  Mike Piazza made a career out of swinging the stick, not for throwing out baserunners. 

Then you have some guys in the next tier financially who might still net you an interesting return.  The question is whether or not you can afford to lose them.  Brandon Nimmo has a reputation for being an on-base machine and he’s shown he probably has 20-HR power.  Seth Lugo was pitching at All-Star level last year and still isn’t earning the big bucks.  You do have some other very high quality players in Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto and Amed Rosario, but it’s unlikely the Mets are willing to entertain parting with any of them. 

So the question to consider is do you think ahead to the post-Cespedes Mets team who could certainly use someone to man left field?  Or do you deal away one of these nice-to-have spare parts to address other needs such as backup catcher or middle reliever?  It’s kind of criminal to think you would lose someone of the caliber of Smith or Davis for the next Kevin Plawecki or Sean Gilmartin.  Still, if you are looking to improve, these types of players are the most desirable to the other ballclubs and you’re not likely going to get equivalent talent in return unless you’re willing to absorb full salary.