Good Morning, Mets' fans!
By the time you read this article, Spring Training 2020 should be underway in lovely (mostly) Port St. Lucie, FL. I am not sure what the weather is like where you are, but most folks have had enough of winter weather by this point and are ready for some baseball.
There has been a lot of negativity this offseason, thanks in large part to the "Astros Scandal" that has affected multiple teams and players to include our very own Mets and former player/manager Carlos Beltran.
Then you have the whole Steve Cohen saga where the Mets were on the verge of being sold only to have the deal hit a permanent snag.
I only mention these two topics because they overshadowed a rumored personnel move that the Mets were linked to during the offseason. Sure, there are rumors every offseason and they make for interesting conversation and news articles. But, this particular move would have been a BIG one.
Before I list any names, take a look at their stats and tell me which player you would rather have;
Player A
5-11 and 190 lbs
26 years old (2020 season)
Switch Hitter with Five Years Experience
.288/.347/.493 (.840 OPS)
28.6 WAR including +10.1 dWAR
Player B
6-2 and 190 lbs
24 years old (2020 season)
Right Handed Hitter with Two Years Experience
.270/.305/.406 (.711 OPS)
2.5 WAR including -1.6 dWAR
Not much of a choice, right?
Sort of like announcing water is wet, or that the sun will come up in the East tomorrow morning. IF that was all we had to go on then Player A is the way to go.
You have probably figured out that Player A is Indians superstar Francisco Lindor and Player B is budding Mets' short stop Amed Rosario. Oh and Lindor is the better baseball player, obviously.
The aforementioned personnel rumor had the Mets interested in obtaining Lindor, and Rosario was only part of the return for the Indians (since they both play short stop). The Mets' interest is obvious, but why would the Indians want to make this swap?
In addition to the performance metrics above, there are two additional factors to consider: MONEY and what else the Indians wanted in return.
Lindor will make 17.5 million dollars in 2020 with an additional year of control (arbitration) in 2021 that will likely command a higher salary than that. He becomes a full fledged free agent in 2022, where he will command a huge, long term contract and the Indians risk losing him for nothing.
Rosario will make less then a million dollars in 2020 and he has three more years of control (arbitration) which will likely be less combined then Lindor's 2020 price tag. Amed will not be a free agent until the 2024 season so his low cost availability is a huge draw when compared to Lindor's situation.
***Don't overlook the fact that Rosario really turned his season around in the last half of 2019. He was a highly regarded prospect in the minor leagues and he appears to be figuring things out as he enters his third season at the ripe old age of 24.
Lastly, the Indians wanted WAY more than just Amed Rosario in this rumored swap. If recent reports are accurate, they also wanted three of the Mets top five prospects!
I know Brodie gets a lot of crap for the infamous "Cano trade" which included two highly thought of Mets' prospects going to the Mariners (especially how the 2019 season unfolded). BUT, imagine how the rumored Lindor trade would have been received?
Yes, we would have obtained a "stud" short stop (for two more years, anyway), but the minor league system would have been gutted and we would have added salary in the process. That, in turn, would have kept the team from adding important depth pieces to the back of the rotation and the bullpen.
If this lunacy was Cleveland's proposal, then Brodie made the right call by turning it down. All things considered, you can see why the Indians were interested, and it should give you some hope for Amed's future (i.e. they are a playoff contender and they saw a future with Amed in their lineup).
In the end, the right choice is actually Player B in my opinion.
Oh, and I would not be surprised if Amed comes close to matching Francisco's value in the coming years, but at a much more manageable value.
6 comments:
Indians want too much. Go with Amed.
Mike - like your point about Amed figuring things out last year. His track record in the minors showed he was slow to get going when he was moved up a level. MLB could have just taken him a little bit longer. I go with Amed as well.
Don't delude yourself into thinking Amed Rosario will be cheaper when he hits arbitration. For now he saves the cash-poor team some money and prospects. In the long run he won't. I can understand the resistance to making the trade but I don't agree that Rosario will be equally good...just equally well paid.
I liked what I saw from Rosario over the second half last year. Hes super talented and I think his best is yet to come.
What's interesting is these big contracts. How do you pay out these 25 and 30 million dollar contracts when the production you get from a 10 million dollar guy is not that much different? There are very few players who make enough of a difference to actually make it a good investment. stay young and pay your pitchers. Thats the way forward.
Fair assessment, Reese. I think some folks are playing "fantasy baseball" when they propose these trades and they don't look at
all of the factors outside of the "big names".
I would happily take 85% of what Lindor produces on a regular basis and I think that is possible for Amed (not quite as much power, but perhaps more speed).
As far as costs go, eventually everyone gets paid if they stick around long enough and have some success. By the time he gets more expensive, we have a few more prospects that should be banging on the door to play in NY. And, if Amed gets really expensive, it means that he likely produced in the interim and he could be a valuable asset for a trade, etc.
I guess the gist of my piece is that Amed is two years behind Francisco and when you look at all the factors, he is a better choice for 2020 through 2023.
We can not compare trading for a superstar in his prime with trading for a declining player with a bloated contract that’s 36 years old, and we even give up our best prospect to throw in usable players like a year of Swarzak and two years of Bruce. The Mariners screwed BVW, and he had no problem with that. Even after the partially torn shoulder was discovered in Diaz, BVW didn’t care and made the deal. Conversely, Bloom sent the troublesome player back and got two better prospects.
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