I spent far too many years (the top 30 years of my life, probably) taking the LIRR to and from work, and those scheduled trains had an ETA, an estimated time of arrival. Rarely achieved ETAs, that much I can tell you. Anyway:
The Met.com Top 30 Prospect List also has an ETA for each of those 30, which presumably is a key glimpse into their opaque prospect assessments.
Two of the 30 (Franklyn Kilome (11) and Yennsy Diaz (30)) have already made their MLB debut.
What do you think about the ETA timing they list for the other 28 of them (see name and the rank of each in the top 30)?
ETA 2021 - nine guys, 6 of whom are in the 20-30 range:
7. Khalil Lee OF
9. Tom Szapucki LHP
18. Carlos Cortes 2B
21. Ryley Gilliam RHP
22. Sam McWilliams RHP
23. Oscar de la Cruz RHP
24. Pat Mazeika C/1B
27. Tony Dibrell RHP
28. Tylor Megill RHP
ETA 2022: nine guys, with 4 of them in the top 10.
1. Ronny Mauricio SS
3. Brett Baty 3B
8 Mark Vientos 3B
10. Junior Santos RHP
13. Shervyen Newton INF
17. Jaylen Palmer 3B/SS
19. Michel Otanez RHP
25. Jose Butto RHP
29. Daison Acosta RHP
ETA 2023: eight guys, with 4 of them in the top 6.
2. Francisco Alvarez C
4. Matthew Allan RHP
5. Pete Crow-Armstrong OF
6. J.T. Ginn RHP
15. Freddie Valdez OF
16. Joshua Cornielly RHP
20. Jordany Ventura RHP
26. Joander Suarez RHP
ETA 2024: two high talent youngsters.
12. Robert Dominguez RHP
14. Alexander Ramirez RF
What do you think of those rankings?
Which do you disagree with, and why?
Which do you think will have big impacts on future Mets' teams?
I will say this:
a) I doubt all 30 make the majors - some will fall short, no doubt. Some always do.
b) 2021's guys are collectively low ranked, compared to those of 2022-24.
c) 2022 and 2023, on the other hand, look like bumper crop years for Mets' prospects, especially 2023, when 4 of the Mets' current top 6 prospects are expected to be ready.
Of course, the 2022-24 guys by next year will probably make up nearly all of the top 15 by this time next year, except for whomever the Mets draft in this year's first round.
The 2022-23 bumper crop will drive future Mets' roster decisions and even be likely fodder for more strategic trades.
Like that old pizza slogan, tweaked:
KEEP THE BEST, TRADE THE REST?
d) There are SIX right hand pitchers whose first name starts with the letter J. I'm sure Jake likes that.
e) In total in the Top 30, just ONE lefty, but FIFTEEN righties! Say what? Talk about imbalance!
That imbalance alone could spur a Mets' bias in the 2021 draft towards lefties. It also makes you wonder a bit if they really should have gotten rid of struggling lefty Steve Matz or instead tried him in the bullpen.
So, again, what do you think about those ETAs? About right? Any thoughts, Mr. GM, on how you might plan key future roster moves with so many of these likely arrivals over the next few years?
6 comments:
I'm not too worried about the LHSP situation,with Peterson here and Szapucki on the way. And there are always others available later as FAs.
I hope you are right about Baty/Vientos, so we can give Davis all of this year to make/break it.
Good list.
I am a little more conservative here.
Many of the chips you list in 2022 I have in 2023.
The same with your 2023 list... I push guys like Alvarez to 2024.
Still... I hope you are right here.
Bill, Davis will get increasingly expensive, and Baty/Vientos will be cheap. As soon as one is REALLY READY to play for a playoff caliber team, one (probably Vientos, at first) could well result in JDD being traded, perhaps by next off season.
Szapucki to me is not money in the bank until we see more of him - Matz seemed like $$ in the bank. So did Anthony Kay, who has still to prove he can be a solid major leaguer for Mets North up in Toronto.
Mets West, of course, is Seattle.
Mack, thanks.
I don't disagree with you on delayed ETAs. Season gets delayed, how do they develop? They will, for some (especially the top bananas), have the alternate site, which may work out well.
I think the young pitchers, Allen and Ginn, could be moved along on a faster timetable.
I don't see any regulars knocking down the door.
Jimmy
I caution rushing these kids especially after not playing last season.
Cohen can keep us in players until they are ready.
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