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Reese Kaplan, as his professorial Macks' Mets articles often do, gets me to do some thinking about these NY Mets.
His article this Monday on the pitching staff was encouraging, and it got me - to thinking - and then to writing - this afterwards on Monday.
Hopefully, nothing crazy happens on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday where the pitchers get destroyed and I have to scrap this article because its premise just went kerflooey.
If you're reading this, though, that didn't happen, so here goes:
I have written many times in recent years how gosh-AWFUL the Mets' replacement pitchers have been,
Last year, the combination of some of those pitchers, plus an awful season from ex-Met Steve Matz, resulted in a season-crushing 48% of the team's innings being thrown by a collection of many, many, many of their pitchers who each had ERAs over 5.00 and who collectively allowed a staggering 7.4 runs per 9 innings.
That's no way to run an airline - or a baseball team.
I imagine if Elias ever did a study, searching to see if a team ever in baseball history had 48% or more of its innings thrown by guys allowing 7.4 or more per 9, that made the playoffs, I'd be shocked if they found one.
It would be hard to reach .500 with such awful pitching.
This year looks so much different - through Monday, the team had a sterling spring training 3.57 ERA.
So I got to thinking, which pitchers are locks for the season, which are likely to go north, and who is left over.
LEVEL ONE - LOCKS:
deGrom, Carrasco (he said he will be healthy, I'm woke and I believe him), Stroman, Diaz, May, Loup, Familia and Walker.
- You can nitpick, but THAT is an excellent eight.
LEVEL TWO - ACTIVELY VYING FOR INCLUSION ON THE 26 MAN ROSTER:
Peterson, Lucchesi, Castro, Yamamoto, Tarpley, Vizcaino, Betances, Smith, Hildenberger, McWilliams, Gsellman
- That's 11 more guys - now, we're up to 19 at Levels One and Two. And, no doubt, the Mets are heading north with no more than 13. So, the first time they need to dip below the brought-north 13 guys, there will be real pitchers to tap and call up. Lucchesi was excellent yesterday, by the way, with his Churve.
LEVEL THREE - LIKELY HEADED TO AAA OR ELSEWHERE, BUT VIABLE DUDES:
Blevins, Foley, Nogosek, Montgomery, Oswalt, Zamora
- That's 6 more pretty talented guys - now we are up to 25 at Levels One Thru Three. All are accomplished, and/or have pitched well early in the spring. Reading an article on Tuesday, that writer speculates that Montgomery will go north, so I may have him too low.
LEVEL FOUR - OTHER NAMES BANDIED ABOUT THAT ARE WAY DOWN FROM A QUEENS APPEARANCE, TRYING TO SEE A WAY UP:
Szapucki, Gonzalez, Gilliam, Kilome and several others
- I hope these Level Four guys have two tanks of air, as they may not get to the surface for quite a while, what with 25 (count 'em) quality pitchers right now ahead of them.
As I see it, you may not want to get below LEVEL TWO, but there is a slew of quality in those top 19 guys in Levels One and Two.
And, lest I forget:
LEVEL FIVE:
Lugo and Syndergaard, two guys who are no-doubt LEVEL ONE LOCKS when healthy, both ought to be back, ready and raring, by the start of June.
Which leads me to conclude this...we may critique this guy or that guy...this pitcher walks a few too many, this guy's fastball is not 99...yada yada.
But after what turned out to be one of the least deep Mets' pitching staffs I have ever seen in 2020...
This staff might just be the deepest Mets' staff I have ever seen.
So...c'mon...LEVEL with me:
Do you agree with me on this?
And...are you smiling broadly yet?
15 comments:
I do agree with you on this. I suppose there is some room for minor movement between your levels, but you are spot on. I like the looks of the pitching depth they have built.
For my one switcheroo .. I think Castro is a lock and a level one guy.
Also, where do you you put Jacob Barnes? I think he is a level two guy?
My hopes: Zamora and Smith excel wherever they start and get a shot at the show this year. Also Tarpley has pitched well this spring. I root for the lefties.
I also hope Gonzalez is not lost in the shuffle.
Castro seems to be taking a step up - I would like to see him continue to show that - hopefully our pitching coach is helping him reach his potential.
Barnes is climbing too - another quality arm.
Zamora has that lefty advantage. Smith seems to be ready to strut his stuff.
Think about Peterson, Lucchesi, and Yamamoto - wouldn't they all be a lock for the starting rotation of a weaker team, say, Baltimore? I'd hate to see any of the three not make the team due to the high level of competition, especially Lucchesi, who had a good 2018 and 2019 before his injury-impacted 2020..
I don't expect Cookiebto be in the jar on opening day.
I have seen this too many times before.
While I very much wanted the Mets to sign one more proven late-inning reliever -- thought they could afford it -- Colome went for $6 million -- I am impressed with the quality and quantity of relievers.
The trick will be how quickly they discard and manage the options.
I strongly suspect that Betances is toast.
I think Familia should be on a short leash, but he is a horse, so might still be useful.
And I don't believe in Gsellman. Maybe he could be traded?
Castro, yes. Great arm who has never put it together before, enjoying a solid Spring. Let's ride that.
A minimum of two of those guys will be with the club on Opening Day. Hopefully we don't sit on our hands if they struggle early. But it is challenging balancing act.
If I had to make a decision today -- and we don't -- I'd release Betances.
Lucchesi, as a lefty, could start the year in the pen as long man, spot starter. Love his old-fashioned (weird, awkward) windup, especially as a reliever where guys can't get used to seeing him. He was an excellent pickup.
My take on Peterson is that he only has so many bullets this season. I just don't see him giving the Mets 180 innings given his past totals. If that's true, I'd rather not waste those bullets in AAA. If he can pitch up to his norms next two times out, I would give him the #5 spot. That said, there's really no "bad" decision between him and Lucchesi, so I won't get fired up about any of it. Should be a fluid situation through April-May.
Jimmy
Mack, depth allows you to not rush the Cookie out of the oven. Brooklyn Nets moving very slowly with Durant returning because, when you win 16 of 17 without him, why rush? Mets could easily skip Cookie for a start or two out of an abundance of caution.
Jimmy, Mets are in a nice-problem-to-have situation.
You can never have too much pitching...but the Mets are close to “too much”.
I want to see Peterson get his innings. He has ML stuff and big time poise... a polished pitcher with a clear idea of the zone. Gotta have more than one capable lefty reliever... Loup looks good to me. Give Lucchesi as many innings as possible from the pen and hope it will begin to sort out by the time Syndergaard is returning.
Unknown:
Yes, that's my feeling. The answer to the question of Peterson OR Lucchesi is . . . BOTH!
I suspect that Lucchesi might be very, very good out of the pen. The big lefty. Think Lugo. Whereas I see Peterson as a starter. Just the nature of their stuff and mound personality.
Also: Rules have changed. The old LOOGY types, Blevins, Zamora, don't fit the modern Major Leagues.
And also: It's an added bonus that Lucchesi can easily give up 2-3 innings per appearance, compared to other guys who would have us holding our breath after 2-3 batters.
Jimmy
Solid major league pitchers should not get stuck in the minors, especially considering Lugo and Thor are likely to be back within 30-60 days of season’s start.
Carlos Carrasco Headed For MRI Following Hamstring Strain
That leaves room for TWO of Peterson, Lucchesi and Yamamoto in the rotation, though both are likely to be replaced by June.
I like the idea of Lucchesi in the pen, which would keep all 3 on the ML OD roster.
His unique delivery would provide a real contrast to whoever precedes him and whoever follows him, keeping the opposition off-balance.
My concern for him in that role is his control. He's got to keep his walk rate low in order to be fully effective.
Our starter depth will be put to an immediate test.
Two key pitchers (Lugo, Carrasco) down already - any other team have two key pitchers down already? It feels like the Mets always lead baseball in this category.
I'm hoping the delays of Carrasco, Lugo, and Thor are a blessing rather than a curse. I feel both Peterson and Lucchesi can benefit from regular work. It will be far better to have some current data to determine what to do when those "must pitch" players return closer to mid-season. There's noting better than a body of regular work to determine a pitcher's value.
Having watched Peterson closely, and judging by what I see and read (stats) from Lucchesi, both can be valuable LH contributors to a staff that sorely lacks from that side of the pitching rubber.
I also feel good about Peterson and Lucchesi, and while often not the case, sometimes injuries can be a blessing in disguise.
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