5/15/13

Drew Smyly, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Valdespi, and more....


- Drew Smyly is currently pitching out of the bullpen in Detroit and he is thriving, boasting a K per inning and a 4:1 BB:K ratio.  He also has a sub-1.00 WHIP.  These peripherals are right in-line with his performance in the minors.  The difference is that he was a starter in the minors and he's forced to relieve right now due to the depth of the Tigers' pitching staff.  Smyly isn't a flame-thrower, but he has great control of his pitches and works in the high-80's, low=90's.  If I were Sandy, I'd see what the Tigers might be looking for to deal Smyly and acquire him for the rotation.  I see no reason to think he'll suffer if moved back to the rotation; he should be able to transition back to starting will relative ease.  Having a pitcher like Smyly will give opposing teams a different look, shaking up their perspective from game to game.  Given the number of left-handed hitters in the NL East and Smyly's domination of LH (.114 BAA), he would be very valuable for the Mets.

Adding Smyly would give the Mets flexibility and two options.  First, if the Mets traded for Smyly they could sit back and assume their Next Mets rotation is set - Harvey, Niese, Wheeler, Smyly, and another power RH (Thor) from the system.  The Mets would also have the flexibility to trade Jon Niese for OF help.  They really can't move him right now as there is not a LH in the system even close to contributing.  Steven Matz might one day, but he's a few years off.  Smyly's presence could make Niese expendable.


- It seems that the Dodgers are a natural trading partner for the Mets.  The Mets need to improve all 3 OF spots and have no help coming up from the minors anytime soon, while the Dodgers have 3 All-Star caliber OFers as well as top OF prospects.  I'm not going to speculate as to whom the Mets should trade to the Dodgers, rather Im just going to discuss the 2 players I feel they should target.  It would be great and easy to sit back and say the team can trade over John Buck when TDA is ready, however I'm not going to pretend to know what Buck's value will be once the summer starts rolling.

In the minors, the Mets should target Joc Pederson.  He's a LH-hitting CF who has a great power/speed combination and has been tuning up AA Southern League pitching to a line of .351/.421/.627/1.048 through 35 games (134ABs) as the second-youngest player in the league.  He currently has 8 HR and 10 SB with only 24 K's.  Over a full season, that would be 37 HR, 46 SB, and 111 K's.  Although he didn't come to professional baseball with much fanfare or a top pedigree (drafted 11th round), Joc has done nothing but hit since joining the Dodgers' organization.  He clearly has 20/20 potential and could be ready to contribute next year.  Luckily for the Mets, he's currently blocked by 4 players on the organizational depth chart.  Matt Kemp is going nowhere and I don't think Carl Crawford's contract is movable.  Andre Ethier might be moved (more on this below), but it's uncertain whether LA will trade him.  There's a very good chance that these 3 will be playing in the OF in Chavez Ravine for the foreseeable future.  Even if the Dodgers decide to move Ethier, it's likely that super prospect Yasiel Puig will be the man to replace him.  Puig came over from Cuba and is known as the most exciting positional prospect in LA's system.  The chance that Pederson has a full-time job waiting for him with the Dodgers is almost zero.  He would cheaply fill a hole for the Mets, playing great OF defense and hitting 1-2-3 in the lineup.

As mentioned above, the Dodgers could decide to move Andre Ethier and his contract in order to sign Clayton Kershaw to an extension.  Of their 3 OFers, Ethier is the most logical choice to move.  He doesn't have the talent of Kemp and although he has an expensive contract like Carl Crawford, he isn't a one-dimensional player like Crawford and teams would likely see him as worth the money.  The Mets have interest in Ethier as they attempted to work out an Ethier-Dickey swap over the winter.  Also, Ethier is one of the Mets' FO's "guys".  Every executive in baseball has his guys, players that he has scouted, liked, in some cases drafted, and in others chase for years until they finally get him.  Ethier was drafted by Oakland when Paul DePodesta and acquired by the Dodgers because of DePodesta.  Although Ethier was acquired by Paul's replacement Ned Colletti, the groundwork for the trade had been laid by DePodesta before his dismissal and completed by Colletti less than a month after taking the helm in LA.  If the Mets are serious about adding Ethier, I hope they trade B-C level prospects for him as they will be taking on almost $72M over the next 4 years.  Adding Ethier would go a long way towards improving the Mets' OF and lineup, I just hope they don't overpay for him.

- I know Jordany Valdespin is disliked immensely and has become persona non grata with the Mets.  Honestly, I don't care.  It's time to start him in CF and let him leadoff.  Not only is he the best option, the Mets can build up his trade value and showcase him.  Keeping him on the roster and not playing him is just a waste of time and talent.  If they play him and let him hit HR and steal bases, other teams with OF needs might be willing to look past the character issues.  He has too much talent relative to the rest of the team to sit around and pinch hit every now and then.

- If the last few weeks have shown the FO anything, it's that this roster is flawed beyond belief and needs to be blown up.  I expect there to be a major roster shakeup beginning in June/July and not ending until ST next year.  I don't see how Sandy and his braintrust can look at this roster and think that anyone besides Wright, Harvey, Niese, and Parnell can really be built on.  I'd go a step further and consider only Wright and Harvey as untouchable.  Everyone else should be available and dealt for multiple pieces whenever possible.  The foundation for a winning ballclub is barely visible.

- Shin-Soo Choo has recently been speculated about as a possible Mets FA target next offseason.  He could be a great fit for the team.  Signing a player like Choo is the kind of move the Mets can and should make.  While he'll be looking to get paid, I don't know that he'll get David Wright money, I'd expect him to get around $15M per season.  If they can sign Choo, use their minor league pitching depth to make a splash trade for another marquee outfielder, and sign a veteran 1B, this team goes from having 1 dependable bat (Wright) to potentially 5 - Choo, OF #2, 1B, d'Arnaud, and Wright.  The Mets would also then have Duda and Davis as trade chips for other moves and the pitching rotation would still be intact.  I know there's a lot of pessimism in Metland, but things can turn very quickly given the flexibility the team will have in a few months.

- I don't understand the fans/bloggers/pundits out there who are actually calling for the trade of Travis d'Arnaud due to the hot starts of John Buck and Kevin Plawecki.  That's not to say that I would never deal TDA, it's just that calling for it now is a short-sighted knee-jerk reaction.  First, John Buck is what he is.  He's a defensive catcher who manages pitching staffs well and has always shown tremendous power when given the chance to play.  He's also on the wrong side of 30 and will likely decline from here.  If the Mets can trade him and get a quality prospect or two back, that's exactly what they should do.  Signing him to an extension of a couple of years 'until Plawecki is ready' has disaster written all over it.  Buck will deteriorate and there is no guarantee that Plawecki will do anything in the majors.  Sure, he's crushing the Sally League, but so what?  He's too old for the league and should be overmatching opposing pitchers.  I remember a 1B at Cap City named Ian Bladergroen who smacked Sally League pitchers around in 2004 and was going to be the 1B of the future in Flushing.  He never made it above A+ ball.  Travis d'Arnaud is a Top 10 overall prospect in all of baseball and the Texas Rangers (hardly an incompetent organization) valued him more than a reigning Cy Young winner...and we want to trade him to make room for Plawecki?  Madness....

7 comments:

Unknown said...

really good article. Don't agree with everything you wrote, for instance I am very against trading for Either. The guys highest OPS the past 3 years is .812. For the money he's owed you can find far better far cheaper on the FA market. Also not sure about Pederson, read somewhere he might not have the range for CF. Still worth a look though. But, the reason I like this article so much is what you wrote about Smyly. Never read anything about trading for him before. He started last year and pitched to a 3.9 something ERA, in the AL. He could easily come over here and as a 24 year old pitch to a 3.5 ERA. Plus as he is in the bullpen he should be relatively cheap to get. Great idea.

Michael S. said...

Unknown - thanks for the kudos.

I agree, I think a move to the NL would work out well for Smyly. This is the type of under the radar move I was hoping our genius FO would look to make.

As far as Ethier, he isn't really my first choice, but he'd be an improvement. With Pederson, if the Mets could also acquire a power hitter for RF, I could see him sliding over to LF if he doesn't have the range for CF.

Michael S. said...

One more thing about Perderon - if the Mets were to poach him from the Dodgers, there's nothing stopping them from flipping him to another team in the offseason for an established OF.

Mack Ade said...

Michael, you and I keep spending all this time coming up with trade and FA possibilities... for what? Who's listening out there?

I can't comment on turd-head.

I can't wait for the draft.

Michael S. said...

I'm going to keep throwing ideas out there. The FO understands there is pressure to put a winner out there.

Mack Ade said...

FWIW... there are 27 members of the front office staff following us on Google+

Michael S. said...

Interesting....