6/25/13

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 6-25-13

4 comments


Andy Behrens -

Eric Young first came to our attention in 2006 when he swiped 87 bags at Single-A Asheville. The next season, he stole 73 bases for Modesto in just 91 attempts. In 2008, he delivered 46 steals at Double-A Tulsa, then in 2009 it was 58 for Triple-A Colorado Springs. So he's a fast dude.Over the past four-plus seasons, Young has served as a respectable part-timer for Colorado. He's been a perfectly ordinary hitter (career .261/.329/.342), but he's filled multiple spots defensively and he's been effective on the base paths (70 steals in 90 attempts). He was off to an unimpressive start for the Rockies this year, batting just .242/.290/.352, which led to EYJ being DFA'd last week.

We’ve talked off and on that none of the current Mets outfielders, be them assigned in Queens or Las Vegas, have the talent or potential to be an everyday major league outfielder. Platooning is always an option, but remember, there’s only 25 active players on a team and pitchers usually fill out 12-13 of them. Building a winning team is a lot easier if you have three guys out there that can hit all pitchers and field with the best of them.

Juan Lagares has offered up excellent defense, but he’s only hitting .250 against lefties (.213 against righties). Kirk Nieuwenhuis is pathetic (.125 against righties, .000 against lefties). Jordany Valdespin hasn’t worked on either end either (.133 vs. lefties, .217 vs. righties). There’s no reason to platoon with someone that can’t hit either pitchers that throw with their right or left hand.
Marlon Byrd offers up a true fully dimensional outfielder that can represent against all pitchers while hitting as a righty. He’s currently hitting .263, which breaks down to .288 against lefties and  .246 against righties. It’s not .300, but it’s a star.
And then, there is Eric Young Jr. He’s hitting .257 overall, .304 against righties (the majority of pitchers in the league) and .229 against lefties. He also offers top notched defense and excellent speed on the base paths. He’s also hit .391 in the last seven days as a Met.

                               
Toby Hyde  -

The 20-year-old Noah Syndergaard becomes the 3rd youngest player in the AA Eastern League in 2013 (he’s three days younger than Maikel Franco) and the youngest pitcher. He will not turn 21 until August 29. By age, he is ahead of Zack Wheeler (who did not debut in AA until the season in which he turned 22, when he was already 21) and Matt Harvey (who was still in college). Mets fans can dream about a big league future in which these three righties pump 95+ mph heat in 60% of the team’s starts. LINK

Mets fans are quickly learning how important it is for a pitcher to throw a ball in the high 90s rather than the low 90s. Harvey and Wheeler both stand in a complete different class than the rest of the rotation, primarily due to the ‘high cheddar’ they can consistently deliver, game to game. Well, as much I try to sell you Rafael Montero, you’re not going to see this kind of heat until Syndergaard gets to Queens. He regularly hit 98 on Sunday, even late into the game. This is huge when you already have two other flame throwers on your team. Throw in two controls freaks like Jon Niese and either Logan Verrett or Dillon Gee and you have a rotation that can dominate a league.

Remember, you just can’t dish up four straight guys in a series that throw the same heat. This is what made R.A. Dickey o successful last year (imagine Dickey between Harvey and Wheeler now?)

We’re going to have to let Syndergaard finish the rest of this year in Binghamton, but then, in my books, all bets are off. I really don’t care how young he is and I don’t see any value letting him build up a 5.00+ ERA in the moon-like atmosphere of Las Vegas.
What about Montero? Let him progress and come to camp next year as a 2014 rotation member, but he is now your main trade bait for a decent outfielder. He will be a major league ready starter next spring with a successful record at every minor league level. He can deliver one of the four pieces needed (three outfielders and a shortstop) on this team.


William ‘Darnell’ James -              

Hope all is well. Reading your Morning report, (which I love), I noticed you mentioned German Rosario wasn’t playing for a team currently. I think you may not realize that German Rosario, u stud SS from last year is actually going by the name of Ahmad Rosario. And he is currently playing for Kingsport. Do you ever get excited for any of these Latin America signings? The USA draft takes too long, it kills me to keep up with the international kids. I never pay much attention to them until they get stateside. I really only pay attention when they get to A ball.

                Yeah, I was back asswards with the whole Rosario thing. My bad.

Here’s my spin on the whole international guys. Go to www.milb.com and follow the links until you get to the DSL league stats page. You will notice on the top that you can click on the year, up to around 10 years ago. Go ahead, click on any of those years 5-10 years go for the best hitters and pitchers in the league. What you will notice is you have never heard of most of them.
Some of these kids approach this game like they are day laborers. Everybody in their country at the age of 16 plays baseball, and a handful can throw a ball over 90-mph. They get signed by the ‘busteros’ and you and I find them in our organization. The problem is most of them have no idea how the game is really played.

It’s like the ‘kid’ that pitched for Brooklyn on Sunday. He pitched for three years for the DSL Phillies, left baseball for the next two years, and now he’s back with the Mets. Where did he go? You probably don’t want to know. 

So I've been thinking about how The Mets can create a contender next year. I want to know your thoughts.

1-      Trade for a long term OF solution. Eitheir is not it.

Okay, first… right nowMarlon Byrd and Eric Young Jr. are a ‘good start’ to the goals of getting a real outfield in Queens. I would try and resign them both for the 2014 season.

Yes, I would trade for Eitheir, but only if the Dodgers paid for half of his salary for the length of the deal and only if they would also accept only one of our secondary pitcher prospects, like Logan Verrett, Cory Mazzoni, Darin Gorski, etc.

2. If Garza finishes the year healthy, sign him.
                                No. Garza is a RHP. The Mets need another LHSP.

3. Sign Choo
                In a heartbeat.

4. Sign hordes of bullpen arms and hope they pan out.

I never worry about the pen until the rest of the pieces are put together. Every effort needs to be done to get or keep Bobby Parnell, Jack Leathersich, Jeurys Famila, Jenry Mejia, Josh Edgin, Scott Atchison, and Tim Byrdak healthy. They all could be the lion share of the Mets pen next year.

We will have a small payroll, these signings and trades i proposed would only add about 35-45 million on the high end. I have faith that the Mets will not be slighted by producing a 90-95 Million Dollar team. Fans think The Mets will be cheap, but I think they will appropriately re-invest those funds.

Thoughts?  Thanks, Darnell

The Mets will run out of decent players to sign before they run out of money. Choo, the Eithier deal, and arbitration bumps will get the team salary to around $70mil. What you’re looking for here is a shortstop in the $10mil range that you can trade for (again,2 young pitchers or one and Wilmer Flores). That would bring you to $80mil and a pretty decent lineup.

Rotation – Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Montero
Pen – Parnell, Leathersich, Familiar, Mejia, Edgin, Atchison, Byrdak
Infield – Davis, Murphy, new shortstop, Wright, d’Arnaud, Pena, Turner, Tejada

Outfield – Choo, Eitheir, Byrd, Young, Lagares

4 comments:

TP said...

Mack,
Great post as usual. I know for quite some time you had targeted 2014 as the year the Mets return to competitiveness. I also know that you have backed off that prediction recently due to the dismal season many "core" players have had. Barring major injuries (Harvey, Wheeler, Wright) there is absolutely no reason why Alderson cannot improve this team by next April enough to compete for the NL East title. The Braves are OK but not great. The Nats have shown some warts. The Phillies are sliding. The Marlins need more time to rejoin the majors. Your suggested moves are fine, but others that are similar will do the same job. They need to find a leadoff hitter, a cleanup hitter, premium defense at SS and CF. They need another big arm in the pen to back up Parnell, and they need to balance the starters. They may already have some players in the system that can handle these roles, but I think they need to go get the leadoff and cleanup hitters. I also agree that I would not part with Syndy unless they get an all-star bat straight up. I can't wait for Harvey-Wheeler-Syndy with two complementary pitchers, hopefully one being Niese. I would pass on Garza and channel those resources into the leadoff and cleanup bats. Beltran in RF and Choo in LF around a Lagares/Den Dekker platoon could be perfect and not bankrupt the team.

Mack Ade said...

You're pretty much on target.

It will be interesting how they set up the rotation when Syndergard is ready. You'll have three 97+ pitchers that would set up best with a lefty (Niese) and a slower, control, multiple pitcher starter, like Gee or Verrett.

Throwing five RHSP in a row at 97-99 is nothing more than batting practice.

Regarding the future, Alderson has between today and opening day 2014 to improve on next year's product.

We're just going to have to keep the heat on.

(BTW - going to try and expand the morning report to 2 reports a day, one at 8am and the other around 2-4pm

jonah said...

Mack, how do you see the future for Puello? Is he the answer in RF?

Mack Ade said...

Jonah:

He's getting closer to being the answer.

Let mw say this.. he is FAR better than Juan Lagares in all aspects of the game.

He will go to Vegas after the AA all-star break and he can beat up on PCL pitching for the rest of the year. There's a good chance he can combine for a 30-100 season.

He will come to camp next year ready to take over right... and will probably then have to serve a 50-game suspension

Mack's Mets © 2012