Mack’s Morning Report – 12-19 – Early Look at Picks 1-10 in Draft, Wilfredo Tovar, Smokey Joe Williams, 糸井 嘉男, AAA Team

 

I’m starting to get some comments and emails regarding my thoughts on the upcoming draft and what the Mets might do with the top pick. First of all, it is far too early to project this out especially since the last season before these players become eligible for the draft hasn’t even started, but there are a couple of things we can say at this point.

-         Baring an asteroid falling on the pitching mound at NC State while he is pitching, LHP Carlos Rodon will be the first pick in the draft. Write this one down in ink. 

-         There does seem to be three more slam dunks in this draft and they are all high school kids… RHP Tyler Kolek, SS Jacob Gatewood, and C Alex Jackson. The Mets will not get a shot at these guys.  

-         Now things start to get complicated. Teams with no second round pick could easily change their ‘best player available’ strategy to a projected positional need down the road. Trust me, if that happens, you will see a run on college pitcher (Tyler Beede, Jeff Hoffman, Luke Weaver, Michael Cederoth, Brandon Finnegan, Sean Newcomb) who can move faster through the organization. 

-         What you won’t see is a first baseman, second baseman, or a third baseman picked in the top 10 picks. NC State Trea Turner could be the second shortstop picked along with his teammate Rodon. 

-         There’s a lot of high school pitching talent and it will be hard for the Mets to pass on Conway (SC) HS’s Grant Holmes if he’s still around at #10.  

-         Outfield wise, there could be up to three picks… Michael Gettys, Braxton Davidson, and my projected guess right now…  J Serra HS Marcus Wilson. He runs a 6.5 60, putting him at a 70 as a runner. Projects to remain in CF. Currently throwing 92 from outfield. Compares to Eric Davis.

 

Johan asked – What are the chances of Wilfredo Tovar making this club as either the starting or backup shortstop?

            Mack – Thanks for the question, Jonah.

The problem Tovar has is he’s not that multi-dimensional as some other candidates for a utility position. He is basically a shortstop that plays an excellent defensive game.

Now… if Ruben Tejada gets off to a bad start again or pissed off TC… and the other members of the team (especially Juan Lagares, Chris Young,  and Travis d’Arnaud) are hitting .275+, all of a sudden it’s not much of a liability to have a .225 hitting shortstop, with impeccable defensive tools, hitting either in the lineup.

The Mets’ problem in 2013 wasn’t the fact that their shortstop didn’t hit. Basically, close to no one did.

Only Stephen Drew looks like some form of decent return out there and, using the Mets budget as a model, you have to move both Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy first to create a figure even close to approaching his agent with a back-ended deal.

The Mets have dangled Murphy out and the offers in return have been meh. He’s probably worth more keeping him on the team.

No, for now, I’d start Tejada in Queens and let Tovar start in Vegas with a double play combo of himself and Wilmer Flores. Let them both build up their numbers in the PCL for future showcasing. 

Joe Blogs -

Smokey Joe Williams or Cyclone Joe Williams — he was called both — was born at some point between 1874 and 1885, the exactly year remains hopelessly lost. Most say he was born in 1885, though, which makes the most sense when looking at his remarkable career. He pitched effectively into the mid-1930s. It’s sort of hard to imagine him being born any earlier than 1885.

He grew up in a town called Seguin, Texas, not far from San Antonio. Freddie Patek, the little shortstop, was born in Seguin as was singer-songwriter Nanci Griffith. Williams pitched professionally for about 30 years long before either was born. Sadly — and this is a constant theme when it comes to Negro Leaguers, especially those who started in the early part of the 20th Century — not much more is known about him. http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/no-79-joe-williams/

Mack – This is a wonderful series of the author’s 100 top baseball players of all time. Check it out. 

Posting Projection –

            You might want to start to remember the name Yoshio Itoi, who easily could be the next Japanese player to step up to be posted.

            The 32-year old left hand hitting Itoi currently plays for the Orix Buffalos and is considered one of the top Japanese outfielders. He actually started as a pitcher with a mid-90s fastball, but he was converted to the outfield in 2006.

            He asked to be posted in 2013 but due to a past history of injuries, his request was turned down. Orix says they will not post him, but pressure may come from the international baseball community. His stat line last year: .297/.382/.465.

Troy asked –

            Mack, I assume we’re stuck with Las Vegas as our AAA affiliate now that Washington signed up for four more years with Syracuse.

                        Mack – Hey, Troy.

            Yeah, it doesn’t look rosey. There’s an outside chance that Rochester could come available after 2014, and they could try to get  the MLB to allow them to talk to investors in a Canadian city, but there still would be a created imbalance in the PCL.

                        No, this whole mess sure makes me wish we were back in Buffalo.

            Some fans have suggested that the Mets keep their pitching prospects in AA-Binghamton and sending them directly to the Bigs from there, but that simply doesn’t work. These guys need the experience of pitching against a league of AAA players who got to this level by developing plate patience.

            No, all they will need to do is come up with some internal sybr-stat equation that they can apply to the ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 and other pitching stats. There is obviously a percentage less than 100% can be applied to the end result of pitching in this rarified city, as well as any other PCL teams with the same kind of lack of humidity in the air.

            It really doesn’t matter if you won ten games with an average score of 10-8. Both teams suffer stat wise. Just clean it up with math. You’ll be able to determine if your pitcher is ready to go east. 

Jon Heyman continues to project LHH Ike Davis going to Pittsburgh and platoon with RHH Gaby Sanchez, who hit only .204 vs. righties. The Mets are not going to just hand over Davis and here are the four key ‘prospects’ that could be involved in a deal like this:

RHP Jameson Tailon – Tailon’s availability depends upon whether or not A.J. Burnett returns to the Pirates for the 2014 season. The other four rotation spots are locked in with Francisco Liriano, Gerrit Cole, Jeff Locke, and Wandy Rodriquez. Don’t shrug off the chances of the Mets getting the Pirates top prospect here. Davis did hit 32 home runs last year and the right field seats in Pittsburgh look mighty tempting.

OF Gregory Polanco – Polanco could be the potential leadoff outfielder the Mets would love to get their hands on. He hit .285 last year for the A+/AA teams and will most probably start 2014 at the AAA level. Led the organization in steals in 2012.

SS Alen Hanson – Like Polanco, Hanson split time at the A+ and AA level, finishing the year at .274/.329/.427//.755. Excellent speed, though some do project him for a move to second base. The Mets would love to test that theory at Vegas.

RHP Luis Heredia – only 19-years old, the 6-6 Mexican born righty impressed everyone last season in the Sally League (7-3, 3.05). He does need to work on his control (37BB/65IP), but Sandy loves young projects like this.