12/30/13

What Would Steven Drew Cost the Mets? (in dollars and players)

9 comments

So, rumor has it that the Mets are still quietly in the hunt for the services of Stephen Drew. Of course, it is still December, and the wonderful world of a social media has also given us information and rumors about Mets management publicly putting their faith in Ruben Tejada again, and proclaiming him to still be a legit and viable starting shortstop who has learned his lesson. Well, since we still have plenty of time, and the Mets haven't signed another low cost option to a minor league deal yet, let's talk more about what Drew would bring, and take, from the Mets.

     The crazy market has brought out the big bucks this offseason. Everyone is getting overpaid. And Drew is no exception. He is said to come with good defense, and double digit homers. From 2007-2010, Stephen posted homerun totals of: 12,21,12 and 15. Then, after a couple of shortened seasons (playing less then 90 games for 2 straight seasons), Drew comes out in 2013 with 13 homeruns, 29 doubles, and 8 triples. However, while also still having about 100 less at bats in 2013 then he averaged from 2077-2010, Drew managed to accumulate the most strikeouts (124) in a season for his career. All this for a man who is ready to cash in on a multi-year deal averaging over $10 million annually.

Not for nothing, but technically, Ruben Tejada, in 2012, managed 26 doubles, an equal OBP of .333, and Tejada managed to strikeout almost half as often as Drew. (tejada struck out about 6-7 at bats, while Drew struck out about every 3-4 at bats. So, basically, we are talking about a guy projected to make about 10x more money, and would hope to produce more homers, hit homers, and have enough speed to manage a handful of triples. Then comes the Mets and their Almighty budget.

It's this budget that, in a sense, would not only cost them at least $10 mil annually, but will also come at the expense of Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy, who would most likely both have to be traded away for prospects to make money work. Now, don't get me wrong. If you told me the Mets can get a shortstop who will hit 10+ homers, play solid defense, and hit over .250, I would say absolutely (especially since the Mets play in the New York market, and should have the.....oh yeah, budget) Sports, like life, can sometimes be about projections. So, I get it. If possible, get the higher power production, defense and speed (8 triples is pretty darn good. But then, if you want to continue to use projections, then someone please project what Wilmer Flores will do playing second base. Because, in the budget, Murphy, and his 13 homers, 38 doubles, 78 rbi's and career .290 BA are gone. You then also immediately lose a guy who.....(beating a dead horse stat of the night)..... hit 32 homeruns in this league (Davis), and replace him with a guy who has never hit more then 15 in an actual MLB season.

     I guess what I am trying to say is this. 2 is not always better then 1. But in this case, maybe it is. I would rather take my chances with Murphy and Davis remaining on the 25 man roster. Although, when I think about it. Based on projections, every one of these guys is projected to be replaced within 3 years anyway, with players already in the Mets minor league system.........Whatever, Happy New Year in a couple days everybody......spring training is almost here.

9 comments:

Herb G said...

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Tejada will be the starting shortstop until the day the Mets introduce Stephen Drew at a press conference. Sandy is playing this just right. Drew's market will come to him. The barrier to signing him is not the budget. They are now at about $82 million and Sandy will not hesitate to go to $92 or $93, still leaving room for a starter on a minor league deal and a bench guy or reliever. No, the barrier is the Red Sox, who could still either outbid or match the Mets and thereby pull Drew in. I am hoping that Boras comes to the Mets around Jan. 15 and the Mets can offer him a one time deal, take it or leave it, without giving the Sox the opportunity to match. IMO, 2 years/$20 million would do it.

IBfromWhitePlains said...

Herb - I agree. I don't think Murphy's contract would be a huge factor, especially if you get rid of the 4 million or so on Davis.

What I wonder about, though, can you get Drew for 2 yrs/10 million when he turned down a qualifying offer. I can't imagine the market is that thin and no team is willing to up the ante. But maybe it is. Who knows.

Fred better get this done.


Mack Ade said...

IB:

Sadly, I still see 2014 as a transitional year.

Everything ha to go perfect for this team to win 85+ games.

I'm really not that concerned with having to solve the SS position on OD. I think the team will be in a much better position to do this at the all-star break. They also might be able to get a A+ rated prospect for Colon if things work to their advantage.

IBfromWhitePlains said...

Say it aint so Mack!

While I'm wondering about Met things, do you think Mets mgmt views this as a transitional year?

Would Granderson and Colon signed on to a team they felt was in transition. Yeah, I suppose. But maybe SA's all in and told those guys so before they dotted the i's and crossed the t's - they sign Drew and it's no longer a team in transition in my view.

Maybe I'm dreaming.

Mack Ade said...

IB:

I agree if the Mets signed Drew.

Ernest Dove said...

Signing another $10+ mil guy certainly adds more excitement to the fan base............who knows, maybe they sign him. Maybe wheeler, gee , Niese, colon, mejia, Syndergaard, familia, montero and deGrom all remain healthy and meet expectations. Maybe certain power guys produce power numbers. .....then all of a sudden, we are wondering which prospect the mets will be trading AWAY to get that one final piece for a magical playoff push......lol......I love thinking positively in December.

Mack Ade said...

E-Dove -

and maybe we flap our ears and fly to the moon... :)

Herb G said...

What's that little dark spot I see on the moon tonight? OMG, it's Mack.

Herb G said...

IB -

By mid January 2/$20 might look pretty good to Drew. The QO he recieved from Boston, unfortunately for him, is off the table, so he will have to accept the best he gets. Many players have signed deals late in the off season for less than the qualifying offers (or their prior years equivalents) that they received. The big question is whether Boston counters.

Mack's Mets © 2012