12/26/13

Herb G - To 3 or not to 3, that is the question. - Stephen Drew

8 comments




Last Sunday morning, as most of us Mack's Mets readers were mulling over what we would comment in The War Zone, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweeted "Scott Boras trying to engage Mets ownership in talks over 2 big remaining free agents, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales.” setting off a flurry of speculation in articles and blog postings about both free agents, but mostly focusing on Drew. It had previously been reported that Boras said he had met with Jeff Wilpon at the Winter Meetings, and sources indicated that those discussions were centered on Drew. Going directly to the owners, is it possible that Scott Boras will convince Jeff Wilpon to loosen the Mets purse strings enough to snag Stephen Drew?

Before answering that question, perhaps we should look into the question of whether the Mets should pursue a deal for Drew at all. Sandy Alderson recently said that if the Mets upgrade the shortstop position, it will more likely be via a trade. So, who is a possibility and how do they compare to Drew. Lets look at some career stats (some of which have been factored to reflect a 580 AB season) for Drew and some of the alternative shortstops mentioned as trade candidates:



Player





Age





AVG





OBP





SLG





OPS





SB





HR





AB/HR





BB%





SO%





Drew





31





0.264





0.329





0.435





0.764





7





15





39.0





8.9%





20.7%





Lowrie





30





0.264





0.332





0.427





0.759





2





17





35.0





9.2%





18.8%





Andrus





25





0.274





0.339





0.348





0.688





35





4





161.3





8.2%





15.2%





Aybar





30





0.277





0.317





0.386





0.703





20





7





85.3





4.7%





12.6%





Cabrera





28





0.273





0.335





0.413





0.748





12





14





42.2





7.6%





19.0%





Escobar





31





0.278





0.350





0.386





0.737





5





10





55.4





9.1%





12.7%





Additionally, there are some young, major league ready players, who could be trade targets. Below are their career minor league numbers.


Owings





22





0.291





0.320





0.441





0.761





15





14





41.9





3.5%





22.2%





Grerorius





24





0.273





0.324





0.381





0.705





5





7





80.3





6.2%





13.9%





Franklin





23





0.287





0.360





0.459





0.819





25





17





33.6





9.6%





21.9%





Miller





24





0.334





0.409





0.516





0.925





16





18





32.1





11.3%





18.7%





And then, of course, there is the incumbent, Ruben Tejada. His stats are for 2012, his only full major league season, at a level to which we all hope he could return.


Tejada





24





0.289





..333





0.351





0.685





4





1





464.0





5.4%





15.7%





I leave you to draw your own conclusions. My own take is that Drew is at least as good or better than the veteran trade possibilities. And while the young players (still prospects, if you will) have significant potential, Drew is a much surer bet to provide superior production over the next few years. Similarly, Drew would give us more than Tejada, even at his best. The drawback to Drew is that he has been subject to some minor injuries and DL stints during the past 3 years, so we might not get a full season of production from him every year of his contract. With Tejada as his backup, however, we could at least get serviceable production in Drew’s absence.

It appears that, as of now, the market for Drew appears to be bone dry. Since the Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta, virtually all talk about Drew has involved the Red Sox and the Mets. In the last day or so, talk has arisen that the Yankees could be in the mix. While you can never count the Yankees out of any situation involving a quality player, pursuing Drew doesn’t seem to make much sense. Jeter is not moving from shortstop, and Brendan Ryan is a capable backup, while Brian Roberts was just signed to man second base, and the Alex Rodriguez situation is still up in the air. It should be noted that Drew has never played a major league inning at any position other than shortstop, so it makes absolutely no sense that he would sign to play a brand new position. So again, it should come down to the Red Sox and the Mets. But neither team appears to be enthused about signing Drew.

Like the Yankees, the Red Sox have capable players at shortstop, with Xander Bogaerts and his capable backup, Jonathan Herrera, who the BoSox recently received in a trade. There has been some talk about moving Bogaerts to third base and having Will Middlebrooks start the season in the minors after having a down 2013. With both Bogearts and Middlebrooks projecting as above average major league players, signing Drew for $10 million or more per year for depth does not seem likely, although it is said that the Sox might do just that if Drew would sign for one, or even two, years.

As for the Mets, after spending more than expected on Chris Young, Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon, the Mets budget seems to be exhausted. But during the winter meetings, members of the media were told the Mets were not making any more big acquisitions, and then they signed Colon. Also, Alderson has made it clear that he abhors long contracts, and his reluctance to give Curtis Granderson more than 3 years was well known. Yet we all know how that ended. So, even though the Mets have been counted out of the Drew sweeps by many, they could indeed be in. If the Red Sox stand firm at 1 or 2 years, the Mets could certainly get Drew by offering an extra year.

My question is, would Stephen Drew at 33 be much different than Stephen Drew at 32? It isn’t as if he will be old in a 3rd year. If the Red Sox won’t budge from 2 years, should the Mets offer 3, probably at a lower average annual value? I know what I would do if I were Sandy.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

If Drew falls into mid to late January without a deal in place, I say go full throttle and pick him up on a Kyle Lohse like deal.

Reese Kaplan said...

Meh!! I would rather swing a deal for one of the younger and cheaper options.

greg b said...

Reese right on. Get someone young amd grow with the team who can be our ss for the next 5 to 10 yrs.

greg b said...

Reese right on. Get someone young amd grow with the team who can be our ss for the next 5 to 10 yrs.

bill metsiac said...

No one has mentioned the (to me, anyway) very interesting turn of events. Instead of Boras holding up his top FAs and GMs rushing around to win the right to overpay for them, the opposite is now taking place.

The owners (including our own) are standing pat, while Boras seems to be panicking to find homes for Drew and Morales.

I wouldn't give Drew a fat, 3-year deal, but Alderson's patience may pay off. If Boras' desperation grows enough, and the price drops to, say, 2 years at $10 mil per, IMO he's worth a shot.

Mack Ade said...

My guess is, when all this is over, Drew will sign back up with Boston for one year.

Anyone: If tis happens, and Drew goes back to his old team, does the team lose a draft pick?

Herb G said...

I have been on the fence with Drew for a while, although I felt we needed to upgrade the shortstop position from the start. As time marches on, however, and still no deal for Drew, it is becoming obvious that the Mets could indeed get him if they want him. If he is still available in January, I would definitely give him 2 years/$20 million. And if the Red Sox were offering 2 years, I see no reason not to go the 3rd year, since as I said in the article, Drew should still be aa better than average shortstop at 33 yrs old.

We would have to give up a couple of top prospects to get one of Seattle's young 'uns. Is it better to do that than to lose our 3rd round drafy pick? I think I'd give up the pick. That said, I'd still jump for joy if the Mets snagged Brad Miller.

IBfromWhitePlains said...

I wonder, from a fan’s point of view, what the problem is with a
3rd year for a solid SS who will instantly give this team a more than respectable infield, added to the new OF depth and, hopefully, D’A is the real deal. Drew gives you .250/15 HR/65 RBI’s every year. Hitting in the 6/7 hole makes this lineup pretty solid. The SS prospects in the system are 2/3 years away and who knows what you got there.

I’m a fan. I can’t put myself in mgmt’s shoes nor do I care to. SA is a negotiating businessman working with Wilpon’s money and Boras’ strategic maneuvering and cajoling. That’s their jobs. Not mine. I don’t give a damn about whether it takes 10 million and 3 years. Why should I? It’s Fred’s money and we deserve a winner. Just get it done.

1)I don’t have to watch Tejada next year and
2) I will be watching a contending club next year.

This is a solid gamble in my view. Do it Fred.

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