Herb G - To 3 or not to 3, that is the question. - Stephen Drew

Last Sunday morning, as most of us Mack's Mets readers were mulling over what we would comment in The War Zone, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweeted "Scott Boras trying to engage Mets ownership in talks over 2 big remaining free agents, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales.” setting off a flurry of speculation in articles and blog postings about both free agents, but mostly focusing on Drew. It had previously been reported that Boras said he had met with Jeff Wilpon at the Winter Meetings, and sources indicated that those discussions were centered on Drew. Going directly to the owners, is it possible that Scott Boras will convince Jeff Wilpon to loosen the Mets purse strings enough to snag Stephen Drew?

Before answering that question, perhaps we should look into the question of whether the Mets should pursue a deal for Drew at all. Sandy Alderson recently said that if the Mets upgrade the shortstop position, it will more likely be via a trade. So, who is a possibility and how do they compare to Drew. Lets look at some career stats (some of which have been factored to reflect a 580 AB season) for Drew and some of the alternative shortstops mentioned as trade candidates:

Player	Age	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	HR	AB/HR	BB%	SO%
Drew	31	0.264	0.329	0.435	0.764	7	15	39.0	8.9%	20.7%
Lowrie	30	0.264	0.332	0.427	0.759	2	17	35.0	9.2%	18.8%
Andrus	25	0.274	0.339	0.348	0.688	35	4	161.3	8.2%	15.2%
Aybar	30	0.277	0.317	0.386	0.703	20	7	85.3	4.7%	12.6%
Cabrera	28	0.273	0.335	0.413	0.748	12	14	42.2	7.6%	19.0%
Escobar	31	0.278	0.350	0.386	0.737	5	10	55.4	9.1%	12.7%

Additionally, there are some young, major league ready players, who could be trade targets. Below are their career minor league numbers.

Owings	22	0.291	0.320	0.441	0.761	15	14	41.9	3.5%	22.2%
Grerorius	24	0.273	0.324	0.381	0.705	5	7	80.3	6.2%	13.9%
Franklin	23	0.287	0.360	0.459	0.819	25	17	33.6	9.6%	21.9%
Miller	24	0.334	0.409	0.516	0.925	16	18	32.1	11.3%	18.7%

And then, of course, there is the incumbent, Ruben Tejada. His stats are for 2012, his only full major league season, at a level to which we all hope he could return.

Tejada

24

0.289

..333

0.351

0.685

4

1

464.0

5.4%

15.7%

I leave you to draw your own conclusions. My own take is that Drew is at least as good or better than the veteran trade possibilities. And while the young players (still prospects, if you will) have significant potential, Drew is a much surer bet to provide superior production over the next few years. Similarly, Drew would give us more than Tejada, even at his best. The drawback to Drew is that he has been subject to some minor injuries and DL stints during the past 3 years, so we might not get a full season of production from him every year of his contract. With Tejada as his backup, however, we could at least get serviceable production in Drew’s absence.

It appears that, as of now, the market for Drew appears to be bone dry. Since the Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta, virtually all talk about Drew has involved the Red Sox and the Mets. In the last day or so, talk has arisen that the Yankees could be in the mix. While you can never count the Yankees out of any situation involving a quality player, pursuing Drew doesn’t seem to make much sense. Jeter is not moving from shortstop, and Brendan Ryan is a capable backup, while Brian Roberts was just signed to man second base, and the Alex Rodriguez situation is still up in the air. It should be noted that Drew has never played a major league inning at any position other than shortstop, so it makes absolutely no sense that he would sign to play a brand new position. So again, it should come down to the Red Sox and the Mets. But neither team appears to be enthused about signing Drew.

Like the Yankees, the Red Sox have capable players at shortstop, with Xander Bogaerts and his capable backup, Jonathan Herrera, who the BoSox recently received in a trade. There has been some talk about moving Bogaerts to third base and having Will Middlebrooks start the season in the minors after having a down 2013. With both Bogearts and Middlebrooks projecting as above average major league players, signing Drew for $10 million or more per year for depth does not seem likely, although it is said that the Sox might do just that if Drew would sign for one, or even two, years.

As for the Mets, after spending more than expected on Chris Young, Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon, the Mets budget seems to be exhausted. But during the winter meetings, members of the media were told the Mets were not making any more big acquisitions, and then they signed Colon. Also, Alderson has made it clear that he abhors long contracts, and his reluctance to give Curtis Granderson more than 3 years was well known. Yet we all know how that ended. So, even though the Mets have been counted out of the Drew sweeps by many, they could indeed be in. If the Red Sox stand firm at 1 or 2 years, the Mets could certainly get Drew by offering an extra year.

My question is, would Stephen Drew at 33 be much different than Stephen Drew at 32? It isn’t as if he will be old in a 3^rd year. If the Red Sox won’t budge from 2 years, should the Mets offer 3, probably at a lower average annual value? I know what I would do if I were Sandy.