1/17/14

Mack’s Morning Report – 2002 Draft, Sully-Chat, The Mets Outfield, Kevin Plawecki



- Coming up:

              11am :   Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Left Fielders) - Christopher Soto

                2pm:    Reese Kaplan - Channel Your Inner Alderson:  What Moves Would You Make?



Bobby Parnell
                 “In my head, I feel like I’m still the closer. ’ll go with that until told otherwise. I’m going to get back into baseball shape and not look back. I don’t think there’s any question that I will be ready [for Opening Day],”
                         Mack -   This is great news...  though I have never heard anyone say on an audio press conference that they don't feel 100%. I still expect to see at least one new face in the pen this spring... someone that probably will give Vic Black a run for the 8th inning role.


We're three down now on the arbitration signings. OF Eric Young Jr.,  SS Ruben Tejada and 1B Ike Davis have been signed for the 2014 season. The Mets have a solid record on avoiding arbitration so I expect the other four to go smoothly also (though Daniel Murphy is going to cost them).           


We continue to look at the draft years of 2000-2007 for the NL East teams. Specifically, we break out the players chosen in the top three rounds and an overall assessment of success (sic) in choosing players in the draft.

2002 –

Mets  -          
            #1       P Scott Kazmir        1,180-IP, 76-70, 4.16

            Two of the 48 players drafted made it to the major league level

            Both (Kazmir, Matt Lindstrom) had some success at that level


Florida -       

            #1       OF Jeremy Hermida          2,012-AB, .257, 250-RBI

            #2       SS Robert Andino              1,320-AB, .232, 96-RBI

            #3       P Trevor Hutchinson        career ended at the AA level

            Eight of the 50 players drafted made it to the major league level

Four (Hermida, Andino, Josh Johnson, Scott Olson) had some success at that level


Montreal -  

            #1       P Clint Everts          career ended at the AAA level

            #2       P Darrell Rasner    166-IP, 9-15, 5.00

            #3       IF Larry Broadway              career ended at the AAA level

            Three of the 50 players drafted made it to the major league level

            All three had some success at that level


Atlanta -      #1       OF Jeff Francoeur              4,603-AB, .263, 618-RBI

                        #1       P Dan Meyer                       114-IP, 3-9, 5.46

                        #2       C Brian McCann                 3,863-AB, .277, 661-RBI

                        #2       SS Tyler Greene                  288-AB, .224

                        #3       P Charlie Morton              589-IP, 30-49, 4.70

                        Six of the 52 players drafted made it to the major league level

                        All (5 listed above + Chuck James) had some success at that level


Philadelphia –

            #1       P Cole Hamels        1,597-IP, 99-74, 3.38

            #2       P Zack Segovia       15-IP, 1-1, 8.22

            #3       3B Kiel Fisher          career ended at the A level

            Four of the 48 players drafted made it to the major league level

            One (Hamels) had some success at this level


248 ballplayers were drafted in 2002 by the NL East teams

22 made it to the MLB level -  8.9%

Only 15 had success at that level   -  6%

(The 6% rate of success here might be the highest in this series… we’ll keep track of that as we continue. It’s also worth noting the tremendous amount of early round draft picks the Braves had in these years. No wonder they built decent teams)


Sully-Chat –

Comment From Josh - Signing John Buck is a decent signing for the Mariners right? Not really Miguel Olivo 2.0 for a backup on a one year deal.

Jeff Sullivan: Not bad, in that he’s better than Humberto Quintero and probably better than Jesus Sucre and he’s able to start in the event that Zunino isn’t good. Sort of an all-or-nothing hitter who doesn’t have his old power, and he’s not a good pitch-receiver, evidently, but Buck is an adequate veteran on a deal that’s never worth more than a few hundred words.

Comment From Steve - What are your thoughts on Zack Wheeler? Will he take a step forward next year and lower his WHIP?

Jeff Sullivan: I get nervous about guys who don’t throw enough strikes. I think he’ll be better than his debut-season 112 xFIP-, but not by a whole lot — he’s got real kinks to work through and I’m uncomfortable assuming big improvement

Comment From Grack Zeinke - who do you think Ike Davis eventually gets flipped for?

Jeff Sullivan: An interesting pitcher who never quite makes it


BP -
Travis d’Arnaud, Mets: The best fantasy catcher headed into 2014, d’Arnaud has all the tools needed to be a top-10 fantasy backstop some day but health is a serious concern at this point. “TdA” has played in just 130 games over the past two seasons combined, and while you could make the argument that his torn PCL, broken foot, and concussion were all freak injuries, such are the perils of playing behind the plate. He should be the Mets’ starter in 2014 and he has top-15 fantasy catcher upside, but he’s far from a safe pick and shouldn’t be viewed as a future stalwart. That’s the state of minor-league catcher talent right now. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22586#151871


Jason asked –

            Hey Mack, about the outfield… should we be happy now with the moves that have been made?

                        Mack – Hey Jason.

                        Happier, yes. Happy, we’ll see.

            Sandy Alderson addressed this problem from top to bottom. The additions of Chris Young and Curtis Granderson have actualy given the Mets depth in the outfield, which are two words that haven’t shared the same sentence in quite awhile.

            He also drafted Champ Stuart and Ivan Wilson, who are dripping with raw tools.

            Internationally, he signed bonus babies Ricardo Cespedes and Oswald Caraballo.

            And lastly, there was the acquisition of Wuilmer Becerra.

            You keep doing this, year after year, and, eventually you are going to wind up with a pretty decent outfield. Remember, we are only talking three positions here and one is now filled with Granderson.

Do I see another potential superstar outfielder in the Mets organization… no, but I do see 6-7 prime candidates to have a pretty decent pro career.


Kevin Plawecki –

Kevin Plawecki earned a promotion during his first full season in the Mets organization, showing a knack for hitting for average and getting on base at both stops. If he displays a little more power and continues to prove to people that he can stay behind the plate despite his big frame, he could be a big league regular someday. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mlbcoms-list-of-top-10-catching-prospects?ymd=20140116&content_id=66617222&vkey=news_mlb

14 comments:

greg b said...

Its amazin reading your article how difficult it is drafting players and project them down the line. And how you have to hit it right in the first few rounds.

TP said...

Mack,

Good stuff. The Braves draft of 2002 was pretty good.

I may be in the minority, but I don't have a problem with Ike still being in the mix. Sure, I would have traded him for a real good pitching prospect, but a $3.5 million bet for possible 30HR and plus D at 1B isn't bad.

Craig Brown said...

Morning Mack

In regards to young Of's...What do you think the Mets have in Patrick Biondi?

He didn't get off to a great start for a college guy playing rookie ball. But his draft profile sounds like a Bret Butler type.

Anonymous said...

@Craig

Biondi profiles as a prototypical lead-off hitter centerfielder. He has the speed and defensive value to definitely stick there long term.

The only thing in question for him that will determine if he becomes a major leaguer or not is whether or not his hit tool develops. He already has the pitch recognition skills as he sports a low K rate and really good BB rate.

He hit .388 in the summer league before his senior year and he was an immediate sign after the draft so he may have been worn out during the summer months.

He did finish really strong in August with a .321 batting average and 9 BB to 10 K.

He should get an assignment to Savannah which should test his defensive abilities in CF (a lot of ground to cover)If he can hit over .300 there and rack up a few triples as well as 25+ steals he'll jump up on my board.

Anonymous said...

BTW....He played in Brooklyn (Short Season A ball)against other college level players and the NY Penn League is not kind to hitters.

Mack Ade said...

Greg -

It's based on the old pyramid game... the 25-man roster

Mack Ade said...

TP -

I guess Atlanta had a lot of top draft picks not signed in those days (were the rules different for the draft then?)

Mack Ade said...

Craig -

I know very little about Biondi.

I will discuss him next week with one of my 'peeps'...

Don't judge what anyone puts up (or doesn't put up) in the year they sign. This is judge additional time when they are getting used to what the players call 'the grind'

The first full year is how they will be judged

Craig Brown said...

Mack and Chris

He won the Cape League batting title a few years ago, so he must have some hitting ability.

He seems like a great value to me as a ninth round senior sign...I just don't know why he doesn't get talked about more.

I like him alot more than King, who has solid enough tools across the board, but doesn't do anything exceptionally well.

Ernest Dove said...

Hey Mack, do u think Murphy and Gee will also only get one year deals, or might the Mets go multi year for either one?

Anonymous said...

@Craig

I personally did not like the King selection. While his hit tool is better than Biondi's, his patience is equal to his, his power potential is just as poor as Biondi's, and even worse his defensive tools are considered below average

At least Biondi has plus tools for speed and defensive capabilities. The reason he isn't talked about more is because of what Mack stated. Its tough to judge a player who immediately signs after the draft because they don't get that adjustment period before the Short Seasons begin.

Biondi looked like he finally adjusted come the August time frame so we'll see how he's progressed with a full off-season under his belt.

Anonymous said...

@Ernest

The team will not be offering multi-year deals for any of their arbitration eligible players this off-season.

Craig Brown said...

Chris

King wasn't my favorite pick either. When I read his profile I just didn't see much hope for a major leaguer.

But in general I thought they had one of the best drafts last year. As Mack has shown with his draft breakdown this week, most of these guys are not going to make it--but I thought they made the correct pick in Smith, and then added some interesting lottery tickets in Church, Meisner, mazzilli, Stuart, Biondi, and Guillorme.

The two picks that I like the least were King and Bashlor. Not neccesarily bad picks, but didn't seem like they had much room to develop--and both got overslot money.

Mack Ade said...

Draft experts, like PG/Matt Eddy, said the Mets had the best draft in baseball