1/17/14

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Left Fielders)



     So far we have improvement at the C and SS positions, same lackluster production at 1B, and the same solid production at 2B and 3B. Lets get working on the positions where we've seen the most change, the OF. LF, your first.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013
Players: Eric Young Jr., Lucas Duda, Andrew Brown, Mike Baxter, Colin Cowgill, Kirk Nieuwenheis, Jordany Valdespin, Justin Turner, Matt Den Dekker
Stats: .243 AVG/.327 OBP/.374 SLG, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 38 SB, 32 2B, 5 3B, 75 BB, 137 K
(22nd in MLB OPS)

     That's a lot of names at one position. LF was a revolving door of mediocrity all season long with Duda manning the spot to start the year until the team procured Eric Young Jr from the Rockies. EYJ provided the team stability at the position both defensively (+3.9 UZR) and from a leadoff position standpoint hitting .306 when leading off an inning. However when Young Jr. WASN'T leading off, he posted a meager .212 AVG

2014
Starter: Chris Young
Steamer Projections: .225 AVG/.311 OBP/.402 SLG, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 16 SB, 77 BB, 170 K, 82 R

OR

Starter: Eric Young Jr.
Steamer Projections: .249 AVG/.317 OBP/.338 SLG, 5 HR, 51 RBI, 46 SB, 59 BB, 123 K, 77 R

     This is probably the one position we currently have zero idea on who will actually be starting. On one hand you have Eric Young who is currently the only guy with the tools to lead off but provides no additional value after that. On the other hand you have Chris Young who provides you power and superb defense but has never hit above .257 in his career and is a K machine. For now I am projecting Chris Young will be the starter based on the comments made that Sandy promised him a certain number of ABs this season. In addition you'll see I've included runs scored. If you combine runs scored and RBIs you get the number of runs each player is a part of. CY is a part of 36 more runs than EYJ which further makes me believe the offense will be better with CY.

Verdict: Extremely volatile Could be anywhere from moderate regression to moderate improvement.

Mack - You're not going to like this...

I don't expect the Mets to show the patience to allow either one of these guys enough time to prove their worth. Call it the Collin Cowgill Syndrome.

I also expect the winner of this battle to be the guy that doesn't land on the DL.

I wish I could believe more in Young. I don't think Sandy Alderson promised him 600 at bats... that was just something Young probably threw out to the press to put some pressure on Alderson. My guess is, if no injury develops, Young will be leading the league in strikeouts by the all-star break and could have little trade value at mid-season.

I hope I'm wrong here, but I see no volatility here... just two levels of meh.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have to disagree Mack... There truly is potential for improvement here.

Last time Chris Young was a full time starter all year long, his BB rate floated around 11.5% and his K rate around 22%.

With a normalized BABIP that's gonna get C. Young about a .235 AVG. If he can match his career avg HRs of 24 per season and play his normally excellent defense in LF, He's going to be worth close to 3 wins above replacement level.

For comparisons E. Young Jr.'s career BB rates are 8.3% and K rate is 16.7 % and he hit .249 last season.

A .250 Avg is indeed better than a .235 but C. Young's 25 HRs are significantly better than E. Young's 2-3 per season.

Factor in CY's excellent defense vs. EYJ's poor defense and I think Chris Young CAN be an improvement over last year.

Craig Brown said...

Do you think EYJ played poor defense? he was a gold glove nominee last year...

Not that the gold glove means much, but generally they don't nominate guys who play BAD defense.

I do agree with you that LF should be an upgrade though. Duda was one of the worst Out Fielders I have ever seen. He made Mackey Sasser look good.

Anonymous said...

@Craig

Despite his speed, Eric Young Jr. does not have great range in the OF. His first step reactions and in flight reading abilities are lackluster at best. His arm is also below average.

What helped EYJ was the fact that he didn't have to cover too much ground because of the fact that Lagares and his premium range coverage was in CF.

Hobie said...

Puello by July.

Anonymous said...

@Hobie

Puello's arm isn't half bad. While i agree with your statement of Puello in July, I think he comes up to play RF, Granderson moves to LF, and the Mets net a Top 15 prospect by trading Chris Young if he's slashing .240/.350/.430

Ricardo said...

Last year LF: Eric Young Jr. very good 4-5 OF, Pitch Runner, PH.
Lucas Duda not an OF.
Kirk Nieuwenheis: Next DFA.
Matt Den Dekker: Keep in eye here!!! sleeper.
Andrew Brown good PH, 5th OF
Not with the team (thank God): Mike Baxter, Colin Cowgill, Jordany Valdespin, Justin Turner.
Chris young: We have to be realistic here, this is no more the a BA 200, yeaahh also good glove, and that`s it.
Now, lets wait for Puello/Lawley/Den Dekker combo... one of the three must have a break out first half season and soon be flushing bound.

IBfromWhitePlains said...

I must have been watching a different EYJ last year. Good jump, bad jump, he caught up with everything and saved a few games out there. Bad arm? He had 7 outfield assists last year in 88 games. I think it would be tough to turn 2 at 2nd with a weak, inaccurate arm as well.