5/25/14

Morning Report – May 25th – Backdoor Logic, Vic Black, HS Fastballs, Expos




        Coming Later Today –

                10 am – Mrs. Mack's Shortbread

                11 am - BA Prospect Hot Sheet - #4 - 2B/SS - Dilson Herrera

                12 noon - The Bronx Empire – Mock

                1 pm - BA Hotsheet - #11 - CF - Brandon Nimmo

                2 pm - Top 12 3B in 2014 MLB Draft - - Updated 5-23-14 

                3 pm - Top 13 1B in 2014 MLB Draft - revised 5-23-14

                4 pm - Top 15 C in 2014 MLB Draft - Updated 5-23-14

                5 pm - Top 10 LHP In 2014 MLB Draft  - Updated 5-23-14

                6 pm - Jakson Reetz, Alex Jackson, Jeremy Vasquez, Spencer Turnbull, Bradley Zimmer, Mac Marshall





We at Mack’s Mets have added another writer, Brian Mangan, who is the founder and Publisher of a great web site, www.thereadzone.com. Brian will be a guest writer here and we’ll cross reference each other’s Mets related stories, like http://thereadzone.com/2014/05/21/the-mets-chris-young-is-turning-it-around/.  Please welcome him aboard.



Sunday Thoughts - 

   
    SP Zack Wheeler may be right. He really isn't surprising anyone up at the plate. It's not like there's another option right now, still I think the Mets should consider returning Daisuke Matsuzaka to the rotation. It doesn't look we're going to see Dillon Gee for a while and, like I've said in other posts, a 'demotion' for Wheeler for 3-4 weeks could be the best thing to happen to him right now. Every interview he's had tells me he has his head of straight regarding anything that would develop in this area.

Regardless of whether anyone ever listens to me regarding moving Rafael Montero to the pen, I really want Wheeler to be part of the future Mets rotation. That being said, he needs to take care of these problems now. Too much is going to start happening around him... Montero and Jacob deGrom earlier this month... Noah Syndergaard in June...  Matt Harvey in April (Sept 2014?)... if Wheeler wants to prove he should be part of this rotation, he needs to step up this year. 



Harvard-Westlake (CA) 3B Jack Flaherty started this ‘mock season’ as one of the top 10 favorites for the 2014 draft; however, for various reasons. Faded to a second round projection. However, Flaherty is bouncing back as a starting pitcher which culminated with a no-hitter Friday night against JW North.


A lot of us writers here ride horses. Reese Kaplan is firmly in the ‘fire TC’ saddle… Thomas Brennan gallops through the minor levels and keeps us abreast to what’s going on there… and I’m strapped in on two issues:

-      Build your pitching staff first through the back end of the bullpen

-      Find a lethal rotation that can give up three or less runs in the first six innings each of them pitch each night.

Thursday night was close to textbook for me. Jon Niese actually pitched seven innings, giving up the max three runs and then Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jenrry Mejia threw two scoreless innings.

My theory is simple… give up three or less runs per game and you win enough games to get to the playoff. Oh, there will be games you lose 2-1, but that’s a victory you didn’t lose. No, your opponent went out and beat the best you could give him.

Thursday went by the book… a 4-3 Mets victory.

Friday went even better, Bartolo Colon gave up only two runs and the pen was perfect again. Oh sure, the stats were throw away after the game was rained out with 3.5 gone (0-2 Arizona over the Mets), but tough titty on them. Now Mejia will get to pitch in three games in a row!

And Saturday?  Well, holding the team to 3 runs worked, but the Mets offense once again came up short. Shit happens and a lot of it has happened this May.



It will be interesting to see what the Mets do with Vic Black after today’s doubleheader. First of all, let’s pray he doesn’t walk anyone, but, is this the chance for the Mets to move even a little younger at the back end of the pen? I’m all for a Black-for-Valverde move simply based on the karma. I want everything coming out of that clubhouse dripping of the future.



Through The Fence posted the top 30 High School fastballs coming up for the 2014 draft Here’s the top 10:

                1. Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (TX)
2. Grant Holmes, RHP, Conway HS (SC)
3. Jacob Bukauskas, RHP, Stone Bridge HS (VA)
4. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Coral Springs HS (FL)
5. Dylan Cease, RHP, Milton HS (GA)
6. Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Waiakea HS (HI)
7. Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (CA)
8. Michael Kopech, RHP, Mount Pleasant HS (TX)
9. Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP, Lawrence HS (KS)
10. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Sanger HS (CA)


‘Zozo’ passes on a great interview with OF Bradley Zimmer - http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/05/draft-prospect-qa-bradley-zimmer.html#more-38147



The Montreal Expos were a model franchise from 1979-1994.  They only finished under .500 in 3 seasons out of 15 in this stretch of time.  The club simply drafted better than any other Major League team.  Long before the Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane came up with MoneyBall, or the Minnesota Twins, Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays showed us that you can have good runs with your baseball teams on a shoe string budget, the Expos wrote the book on it.

Just a great read on one the best baseball teams… ever. http://mlbreports.com/2012/06/29/expos-demise/


14 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Morning everyone

Michael S. said...

Morning Mack.

With regard to Wheeler, he still has ace stuff and needs to work things out for himself. Having said that, when the dust settles in a few years I think he's going to be the SP4 on this team and one of the best in MLB.

SP1 Harvey
SP2 Niese
SP3 Syndergaard
SP4 Wheeler
SP5 Matz

I'm not that concerned about Zack...and I think Montero and de Grom are going to be dealt. Sandy has finally openly talked about having young pitching to deal and I think these two are at the top of the list. Not only are they a step below the other five when it comes to projection, the organization ignored one of their major no-no's with these 2 - they promoted them before Super 2. Leads me to believe they aren't concerned with their long term future with the team.

Tom Brennan said...

Hey folks,
Happy Memorial Day and a shout out to our troops, the ultimate clutch performers.

Today's "keep abreast of minor league play" starts with Lucas Duda...his cat is closing in on the end of its 9th life as he plays like a true AAA or AA hitter.

If I had my druthers, which I don't because I am not Sandy Alderson, I would make 3 moves, realizing it would be reckless and impulsive: cut C Young and demote Recker and Duda - and replace them with Brown (killing it in Vegas) and Dykstra in a 1B platoonan and call up Plawecki and let him and d'Arnaud split the catching duties.

I frankly have observed way too much offensive anemia: 6 and 15 in last 21, and if you put instead the Rockies offense with the Mets pitching in those 21 games, you have what, 14 and 7 instead?

I would say to take a long look at Brown's AAA stats since 2012 and not judge him on sporadic major league playing time (during which he's hit as well as Duda anyway); see that Dykstra really gets on base well vs. Righties; and Plawecki is a better hitter than Recker today. More offense. Period.

Mack Ade said...

Michael -

You make a good point about the Super 2 handcuffs being dropped from deGrom and Montero. Sandy is obsessed with this and you are probably right about these guys being the first two to be traded

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

The death of any clubhouse is to keep sending down players that are 'cold' and bringing up players that are 'hot'. Being hot in Vegas means nothing and this in and out policy is a cancer that would go through the clubhouse like a wildfire.

Thomas, I hate Duda being the Mets first baseman, but the only place he's going to work out his problems is here, not hitting home runs off of has-beens in thin air Vegas.

Tom Brennan said...

You talked me off the ledge, Mack! We'll see what the current boys of summer can do then, while it is still spring.

Duda has to fix himself - hopefully he can before a season goes down the tubes. We need clutch hitting from him - not deep pitch counts.

Tom Brennan said...

I will acknowledge I do some hit and run stat analyses, so what I am about to list for Duda I have done for no one else.

Baseball reference dot com has splits that are revealing for Lucas:

He is 9 for 30 when he hits 0-0, 1-0, or 2-0. Only 10-76 when he makes out when the count is 0-2, 1-2, or 2-2. 5 for 31 in "Late and close" situations, 3 for 30 in tie games. Last year, he was 10 for 65 in late and close, 19 for 102 in tie situations. He has a long record of not being clutch, as I read it, and of hitting very poorly in pitcher's counts. I'd say that if he does not solve that dilemma, it won't be if he is dropped from the line up, it will be when.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

Now, don't go too far from the ledge :)

No one is going to say this, but, the way this team is playing, we're back to rebuilding.

The Mets under the Wilpons will always have a limited amount of money. The problem this year is the guys Sandy signed aren't panning out that well.

He has bigger problems next year... far less comes off the books.

What the Mets have to do is figure out who on their CURRENT team has a future here and then go from there... and the way you do that is play the people who need the work, not sit them on the bench or send them down.

If we truly want to see if Wilmer Flores is the future Mets shortstop, then give him 400+ at bats and see what he can do. My guess, you will be thrilled with his bat vs. Tejada... making the error thing (and lack of being able to turn a double play) the key.

If you want to trade Chris Young, PLAY Chris Young.

Etc.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I REALLY have a long time problem with Duda on first.

Michael S. said...

I don't know that we're back to rebuilding, this season was and is transitional. The pitching staff isn't going to be settled until sometime next year, the Youngs we're never long term answers, and Sandy still needs to acquire a real middle of the order bat, preferably in the OF.

We knew Duda wasn't a long term 1B, Flores is no SS, and Murphy likely has the highest trade value and eventually will be moved.

We're just still treading water and inching towards a winning team.

I still say trade for Nick Franklin and try to pull Joc Pederson out of the LAD OF logjam and add two long term lineup pieces. Then go into the offseason loaded for bear.

Ca: d'Arnaud
1B: ?
2B: Franklin
3B: Wright
LF: ?
CF: Pederson
RF: Granderson

Harvey
Niese
Wheeler
Syndergaard
?

That's 3 holes to fill and we should still have a lot of wealth to deal from to fill the spots....not to mention a low payroll given the pitching staff and minimal money made by d'Arnaud, Franklin, and Pederson.

Michael S. said...

Edit: I left off SS

Mack Ade said...

Franklin and Peterson would be a nice transition into Cecchini/Herrera/Rosario and Nimmo

Michael S. said...

By the time the younger prospects are ready, Franklin, Pederson, and d'Arnaud should be established and experienced enough (along with Wright of course) to add younger talent to.

Michael S. said...

For instance:

SS Cecchini
OF Nimmo
3B Wright
CF Pederson
OF
2B Franklin
1B Smith
Ca d'Arnaud