Mack's Morning Report - Dillon Gee

The DL list just keeps growing.

Mack's Mets Savannah writer, Wally Murphy, fell at Grayson Stadium and fractured his hip. He is scheduled for surgery and lost for the season. Worse than this, this breaks his consecutive home games attended to every game ever played as a Mets affiliate (2007-2015).
All our prayers go out to Wally for a speedy recovery.

The picture I am using here of Dillon Gee was one I took during the (I believe) 2009 spring training press picture day that takes place the day before the spring training schedule starts. If I remember correctly, this is the day the Mets scrimmage against each other.

This was Gee sitting, waiting his turn to be called up to the camera line. His father used to be a consistent reader of Mack's Mets so I went out of my way to go over and introduce myself. I might have been the only person to say anything to him that day other than 'hey kid, come over here and smile'.

Gee was picked in the 21st round of the 2007 draft so don't ever say rewards don't sometimes come late.

Fangraphs had a interesting breakout on the pace of delivery that Gee uses throughout a game. It turns out that he is ranked first in baseball:

1Dillon GeeMets17.216.472.4%
2Max ScherzerNationals28.219.271.4%
3Chris SaleWhite Sox19.019.170.8%
4Kyle HendricksCubs15.218.668.2%
5Matt HarveyMets26.218.668.2%
6Eric StultsBraves16.017.466.1%
7Mark BuehrleBlue Jays23.216.564.3%
8Michael WachaCardinals20.118.767.5%
9Johnny CuetoReds29.019.869.2%
10Trevor MayTwins14.218.166.4%
What one finds is that Gee has produced both (a) the third-lowest pace mark and also (b) the absolute highest strike rate among the 145 pitchers included in this sample. The distanced between the average of his z-scores and second-place Max Scherzer‘s is the equal to the difference between second-place Max Scherzer’s and 20th-place Jacob deGrom‘s. Put succinctly, no one — including commissioner Rob Manfred — is doing more to hasten along baseball games than the Mets right-hander.

Highest Strike Rates in 2015 Dillon Gee 74.2% Phil Hughes 71.6% Max Scherzer 71.4% Chris Sale 70.8% Bartolo Colon 70.7%

As I wrote yesterday, my original suggestion would have been to replace Gee with Rafael Montero in the rotation, but now that Montero is on the DL with right rotator cuff inflammation, I obviously would leave things alone and keep Gee as the SP5.

At the same time, I would recognize that for all the positive press this guy gets for getting through the 5th inning, he sure seems to have a hard time getting through either the 6th or 7th. I would look to Gee as a 'long starter'... a guy I can count on for five quality innings and probably no more. I probably would let him start the 6th, but I'd have two relievers throwing in the pen and, at the first sign of weariness (hit, walk, drop in velocity), I would yank him. Especially if the team had a lead at the time.


Thomas Brennan said...

Gee has defied all odds. Ride the hot hand, and hope Montero is fine too.

GOOD morning, BTW.

Harvey is invaluable. May he remain indestructible. I loved him imitating Gee with the low pitch count last night.

Ernest Dove said...

I will forever be a Dillon Gee fan, even if at same time I believe that Montero is/was/still can be the better option this season for the playoff push.
I also believe its close to a certainty that he won't be in a Mets uniform next season. He will be a solid SP5 somewhere for years to come.

Thomas Brennan said...

Someone mentioned that Matt Reynolds supposedly has less range than Flores. Seems hard to believe, as Matt may not be a blazer, but he must have some speed, stealing 39 of 49 in the equivalent of 2 full big league seasons. He has just 2 errors in the first 22 games. .326. 21 RBIS. O nly real flaw this year is his Ks are high so far.

Charles said...

Well there's zero doubt that Dillon Gee is a draft success story as a very late round draftee who has become a legit major league starter. And not a high ceiling high school pick that should have gone in the top 5 rounds either. He came from the college ranks and was a true testament to the ability of some scouts that are able to see beyond the desired physical requirements of today's game.

He isn't ever going to have a nickname like "Thor" , but that doesn't matter because he still has the ability to get major leaguers out consistently. I like Dillon Gee a lot a believe he belongs as a starter in the major leagues.

All of that aside, he doesn't belong on this team in 2015. The Mets just have too much pitching despite the fact that you can never have enough. I think it's obvious that Steven Matz belongs in their rotation and that Dillon Gee is the odd man out.

Right now, Matz is turning a league that is known for offense upside down and is proving that he may have just as high a ceiling as Thor and deGrom. His number so far are the best of all the Mets recent top prospects when they pitched in AAA and that includes Harvey.

I say it's time for Sandy to find a trade partner and put the best 25 in this team.

Steve from Norfolk said...


I'm the somebody. I was going strictly by his RF/G, as shown in Baseball Reference. It's the only thing I have to go by, having never seen him play. His advantage lies in the fact that when he gets to the ball, he makes the play, something Flores hasn't been showing us this year. I still think Flores is pressing.

As far as judging his speed in the field by his steal success rate. I would say stealing a base is as much a measure of timing as it is speed. I believe Murph had a high rate of success stealing, but no one would call him a speedburner.

Don't take me wrong about my opinion of Reynolds. I think we would probably be better served by using him at SS than Flores right now. But, unless we get someone at SS that can field a lot better than what we've been seeing, we can write off any chances of the postseason this year. I personally think we should have brought up Reynolds and moved Flores to 2B, but who am I to judge?

Steve from Norfolk said...

Ernest, Montero is better than an SP5. He's an SP3, and could be more if he gets consistent control of all his pitches.

eraff said...

"....Montero is better than an SP5. He's an SP3....."

Based on WHAT? I hope he's an MLB Starter...and he has not yet proven that.

Put whatever "number" you want on GEE...he's an MLB Starting Pitcher.

Steve from Norfolk said...

I'm basing my judgment on what he did at the end of last year. He might be an SP5 here, but for80%-90% of MLB, hed would slot in as an SP# Yes, he hasn't lived up to his potential this year. He also got bounced from a reliever to a starter with 9 WHOLE DAYS to stretch out. And, he got injured because of it. As far as I'm concerned, that start doesn't count against him, it counts against whoever had the bright idea to start him without giving him proper time to prepare.He went from pitching in the bullpen to around 80 pitches in 2 AAA starts Even with that, he had 6K's in 5.2 innings, and a WHIP of 1.06 in his ML start. Last year, in his second trip up, he had 3 ER's in 5 starts.

I could go on, but those are my reasons for rating Montero as highly as I do. The only reason he would be placed lower here is because of the quality of our rotation.

Richard Jones said...

Montero's stock as a starter has dropped in my opinion. The 45 straight fastball outing has me wondering if he has the secondary stuff to get through an MLB lineup the third time around.
I seem to be going in the opposite direction as many of the writers here. There were suggestion to put him in the bullpen and I was against it. Now that I believe he should be there seems to be a shift to making him a starter.

eraff said...

Steve-- You HOPE that Monetero has a higher upside...Me Too!.....maybe you BELIEVE he has a higher upside...maybe. However, Dillon Gee is a Proven MLB back end Starter, and Montero has no proven that he is an MLB Pitcher...PERIOD.

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