Mack's Morning Report - Mets Playoff Starters, Minor League Top 5 Starters, Jonathan Papelbon

Good morning –

Injuries...Wilmer Flores goes out with a strained back... then Yoenes Cespedes gets hit on his wrist. ..  Now Steven Matz is put on the shelf for back stiffness after sleeping wrong on a couch.

Again,,, guys... get off your ass and wrap your wrist, put a band around your backs, use your beds, and get the f back out on the field!

Feel free to save all your ticky tacky bumps and dings for the end of October after the World Series is over.

Got no time for all this pussy stuff. If you don't break a bone or tear a tendon, pick up your glove and get back out in the field.

Fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mets-are-a-scary-playoff-team/ had a feature on the first time the Mets four main starters played back-to-back all season –

Christopher Soto talked about this earlier this week, but I thought you would like to see how this looks in an Excel sheet form:

Mets Starters vs CIN
Jacob deGrom6.050091.500.151.62
Noah Syndergaard7.2510112.351.971.24
Matt Harvey6.290062.701.353.12
Steven Matz5.2100084.760.321.37

Mack – Look, I know Cincinnati isn’t a very good team and it seems like the only teams the Mets win a series against are bad teams, but, if we turn this around and look at it differently, we might be watching this pitching staff peaking at the right time of the season.

You put these four guys up there, followed by a relief threesome like Addison Reed, Tyler Clippard, and Jeurys Familia and there just may be some longevity on this race to the World Series.

Frankie asked –

Mack, you outlined last week the sheet load of minor league pitching prospects that were dealt off in order to create the playoff team we have for 2015.

Who would you rank as the top five pitchers still in the system?

          Mack – Thanks for the question, Frankie.

          Let me answer this in four ways.

First, the ‘system’ still has Zack Wheeler and Rafael Montero in it. They aren’t really minor league prospects anymore and should be part of the Mets 25-man squad in 2015. Trust me, the Mets knew these guys would still be in the system when they traded all those secondary prospects. Both these guys easily rank ahead of all of them and, frankly, all of the ones that remain.

As for the top 5 pitching prospects that remain, if I ranked them by affiliate levels, they would be Chris Flexen, Rainy Lara, Corey Oswalt, Marcos Molina, and Robert Gsellman.

If I rank them as what I project as possible front end prospects, they would only be two… Flexen  and Nicholas Debora.

In addition, I project Ricky Knapp, Nabil Crismatt, Thomas McIlraith, and Merandy Gonzales as possible back-end starters.

Warning - This is not the best representation of Mets minor league starters over recent years...  but... the good news is if Wheeler and Montero return to form, we may not need anymore new starters until the turn of the decade.

Comment From Zen - bigger choke job: nationals season or papelbon?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Nats. We all expected the Nats to be good. We never really expected Papelbon to not be an asshole.

Comment From Phillies113 - If I were the Nationals manager and, as a Phillies fan, was actively trying to sabotage the team, would I still be a better manager than Matt Williams?

Dan Szymborski: Probably. At least they’d get a good draft pick

Comment From Omar - Who would you rather hang out with , John Rocker or Jonathan Papelbon?

Dan Szymborski: Rocker

          Mack – These are bad times for everybody involved with the Nationals.

There will be some big changes here in the off-season. This was a team with a $162million dollar payroll in 2015 that imploded.

Seven players are scheduled to depart via free agency… RHP Jordan Zimmerman, 2B Dan Uggla, RHP Doug Fister, SS Ian Desmond, CF Denard Span, LHP Matt Thornton, and OF Reed Johnson.

Papelbon is under contract for 2016 ($11mil), but my guess is his chances of coming back are equal to the return of both their manager and General Manager.

One bright not for them is you could see the debut of SP Lucas Giolito next season.


Thomas Brennan said...

I may be overrating this guy, but Martires Arias has to be somewhere in the Top SP list. Although he had just one (excellent) start as high as High A ball so far in his career, and he's getting older, he was 14-5, 1.90, and 175 Ks in 175 IP the past 2 years in rookie and A ball. Got 118 innings in this year, so he should be ready for a boost to 150-160 next year. he is my sleeper choice for an upwards leap.

Flores and Matz strained - Mets lose 3 to Phils and it strains celebration week revelries. A shame they come home and fans get rain and wind.

Ernest Dove said...

Hasn't Gsellman won best pitcher award or something TWICE already within their system? Gotta be something with this young man.
And what the heck is going on with Marcos Molina? Does he need TJS or not? Does he even have an elbow injury?

Gary Seagren said...

I think I remember Billy Martin back in the day used to walk in the clubhouse and ask his players if they wanted to play that day.....yeah sure LOL. Things have certainly changed and maybe its me but weren't we going to go for home field advantage? I know we wrapped it up in Cincy but it still bothered me that we mailed it in in Philly and can they PLEASE STOP USING PARNELL ALREADY as he alone cost us the 2nd game.

Thomas Brennan said...

Gary, you need to send Bobby Parnell a retirement card. He and Vic Black have been awful this year. Ernest, my only reservation with Gsellman is a low strikeout rate. In 2016, he ought to get to Vegas and we'll see if he goes the way of Bowman and Pill, or is much better.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I expected you to add someone else this morning. Remember, this is one of the reasons I hate projecting players belows the A+ level. They are simply too far away and have not played against enough quality competition. Yes, some develop late and come out of the woodwork, but most go south with high numbers early. What you are looking for are pitchers like Steven Matz that dominate at all levels.

As for Gsellman, strike outs or no strike outs, he still remains one of the best the team has left in the higher levels. For that reason alone, he made my list.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

The last thing I heard was Molina DID NOT require TJS. That doesn't mean he didn't have it because it's become harder for me to get this kind of information

Mack Ade said...

Gary -

Playing out useless games is tough to watch. This is the kind of lineup this team had before all the injuries healed and trades were made.

My guess is most or all of the regulars will make their way back into the lineup over the weekend.

Gary Seagren said...

sure but do they want home field advantage or not?

Thomas Brennan said...

I agree on the guys needing to get up to really performing at higher levels like AA before you know whether a guy is for real or not, Mack. Gabe Ynoa dominated until he got to AA, then took a few steps back. I will say that Arias' #s in Savannah were very similar to those of Matz in his days there, but Arias will have to show if he is for real next year.

Gary Seagren said...

The thought of facing Kershaw at Citi is more appealing than in L.A. but maybe that's just me

Mack Ade said...

Gary -

Damned if you do, damned if you don't...

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

Frankly, I'm not that high on anyone past Flexen right now.

The best of the Mets pitching is in Queens + Wheeler and Montero.

The rest was traded.

Anonymous said...

I don't think there's much pitching in the system at all. Which is too bad, because those are valuable trade chips to shove toward the center of the bargaining table. In a way, those chips got us 2015. In the future, we might miss those resources.

In five years, I don't think Sandy has done a particularly good job replenishing the system from a pitching perspective. The position players seem to be in better shape, if Rosario and Smith are for real. Unconvinced about Nimmo and Plawecki.

James Preller

Robb said...

the good news, is that if you draft some pitching this coming year in three of 4 years it will be ready. and well those 4+(2) guys are all controlled until at least then, matz, degrom and thor for even longer.

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