Reese Kaplan -- The Arms Are Better Than Expected Thus Far

As we move into the second half of March, what have we learned about the 2021 would-be Mets squad thus far in Spring Training?  Well, let’s first look at the pitching.  

Jacob deGrom has been, well, Jacob deGrom.  That’s a very good thing indeed.  He’s hitting higher velocities now in Spring Training than he had in the regular season after playing every 5th day for many, many months.  Part of me is excited to see that while another part of me worries he’s rearing back a bit too much so soon in the pre-season.  The goal here is not to strike everyone out or to demonstrate what you’re capable of doing.  It’s to prepare for the season and to avoid injury.  Of course, with a 0.00 ERA no one is complaining.

Marcus Stroman has looked like his time off was well spent as he’s mostly looked solid and a credible 2nd or 3rd starter (depending on how you view the others).  He is a ground ball pitcher who achieves his success not necessarily by blowing the ball past the hitters but by getting them to hit on the lower half of the bat which necessitates the best glove handling men behind him on the infield.  He’s been a little hittable but his 3.24 ERA would be highly acceptable for a full season.

Carlos “Cookie” Carrasco is still a work in progress.  Looking at his performance metrics from the past you’d have to be confident that the arm is among the highest quality in the game.  Unfortunately, he’s not been able to show much due to soreness.  The glass half empty types think he will need an extended time off to allow whatever has gone wrong to heal.  The glass half full types think it’s just normal discomfort after a winter of limited use.  Time will tell which extreme view is accurate or, more likely, if he falls somewhere in between.

Jordan Yamamoto has been a very pleasant surprise thus far.  There are times he seems to have a problem with his command which results in free passes.  However, when he’s on, he’s been outstanding.  His Spring Training ERA is just 1.08 across 8.1 innings.  You really can’t ask for a better audition than that.  Right now with Carrasco possibly needing an extended Spring Training, the former Marlin Yamamoto may at least temporarily find himself in the starting rotation.  

Last year’s unlikely rookie hero, David Peterson, has been used relatively little thus far, but started off well with a 0.00 ERA.  However, that experience has been over just 2 IP in which he is pitching to a 0.50 WHIP and a .143 BAA.  While those numbers are eye popping, most folks would like to see it over a greater number of innings to see if he can keep pitching at high quality, if he regresses at all, and if so, how does he adjust to it? We'll soon see as his Sunday 4 IP performance was not spectacular. He is now sitting at 6 IP with a 4.50 ERA (which is probably about what he'd do over the course of a full season given his minor league record).

In the bullpen the bright star thus far has been closer Edwin Diaz.  Yes, you read that right.  No one is clamoring to push him out of that role when in three games over 3.0 IP he has not given up a hit or a walk.  His 0.00 ERA is lovely to see, but like many others who are posting the great metrics, you wonder when he has a bad day do we see the All Star closer or do we see the 2019 version who unpleasantly surprised the Mets with his maladjustment to New York.

Nearly as impressive has been the performance of journeyman Miguel Castro.  He has also pitched three perfect innings without a hit, though he has allowed one base on balls.  For a guy whose career ERA across Baltimore, Toronto and Colorado has posted a 4.29 ERA with a high WHIP and low strikeout numbers.  At just age 26 it’s possible he’s still evolving, so he’s one to watch.  At 6’7” you would think he’d be a flamethrower, but not all tall guys are built for high velocity. Remember pitcher Chris Young?

Now comes a tough one, Jeurys Familia.  He’s been pretty much awful when it comes to keeping people off base with an ugly 1.67 WHIP, but he’s surprisingly yet to sacrifice an earned run.  He too has a perfect 0.00 ERA but has walked twice as many as he’s struck out.

Newcomer Aaron Loup has a perfect 0.00 ERA as well, also having given up an unearned run. He has struck out 3 while not walking a batter, so the early returns on this free agent acquisition are indeed positive.  Of course, that changed yesterday when he gave up his first Spring run to raise his ERA to 2.45.

Recovering Drew Smith has also pitched to a perfect 0.00 ERA over his Spring tenure.  Everyone has their fingers crossed as to whether or not his arm is solid enough yet to take on the potential every other day routine of relief pitching, but it’s highly encouraging.  

Forgotten reliever Daniel Zamora has actually appeared in more games than the other relievers and is turning in some highly credible work.  He’s one of those likely filler arms to use when injury or incompetence requires a change at the major league level.  Right now he’s given up 2 hits, walked 2 and struck out three while not yet yielding a run.  

Free agent acquisition Trevor May has shown some interesting movement on his stuff, but it's not quite interesting enough for the Spring batters. Granted, it's just 3 IP so far, but his ERA is 6.00, the batting average against is a very healthy .333 and he's got a very high WHIP of 1.67. It's too soon to draw any long term conclusions.

The one truly sour note of the people 99.9% certain to come north with the team is Dellin Betances.  Thus far he has an ERA of 12.00 while walking three times as many as he’s struck out.  He’s been highly hittable as well.  There are some positive things being said about what you can take out of his performances, but by the back-of-the-baseball-card metrics he looks as if he should start in an extended Spring Training for recovery time as well.  

There are many other pitchers who start and relieve but who are not yet in the inner circle of possibilities for being in Queens in April.  Not everyone is destined for superstardom nor for immediate advancement.  Mostly, however, the pitching has been pretty impressive.