Reese Kaplan -- Mets May Have an Edge in Starting Pitching

I'm writing this piece on Thursday night my time where my most recent exposure to a New York Mets game was not only the spectacular homer robbing grab by Brandon Nimmo elevating himself with his glove over the fence, but it also contained a fairly typical outing for one Jacob deGrom who hurled seven innings, struck out nine and gave up just 3 hits.  

One of them cleared the fence off the bat of Mookie Betts, but anyone would sign up for a 7-inning one-run performance anytime.

Pitching is the reason we're here today to see how the Dodgers and the Mets stack up against one another.  Bear in mind that Jacob deGrom and/or Max Scherzer cannot start every other day.  That is an issue for the Mets who are struggling both with health and consistency from their starting pitchers.  

Right now the starting five for New York includes the two aforementioned multiple Cy Young Award winners.  Then comes Chris Bassitt who is showing how good he can be when he's healthy.  

Right now he's pitching to an 11-7 record with a 3.34 ERA with very nearly a strikeout per inning pitched.  The club has to be very happy with that performance and reasonably should believe whenever he takes the mound even their sometimes moribund offense should be capable of scoring 4 runs.  

Taijuan Walker is a bit of a wildcard as he drifts between unhittable and batting practice pitcher.  For the season he's got an enviable 10-3 record with a respectable 3.45 ERA.  The strikeout numbers are not overwhelming but the 1.2 WHIP range suggests he's capable of getting out of jams he creates.  

He is a free agent at year's end, so expect he will attempt to get as much money as possible.  However, for a starting pitcher he's definitely not a bad choice.  

Where it starts to get dicey is with Carlos Carrasco who has had some health issues.  He's on rehab and according to Buck Showalter due back shortly.  For the year he's 13-5 which is actually the highest win total of any of the Mets starters (including superstars deGrom and Scherzer).  

He's kept the ERA under 4.00 but there are times he's looked very hittable.  Before his current injury he was on a solid streak of strong performances, so as a back of the rotation starter, he's certainly qualified.  

Now lets take a look at what the Dodgers are offering in this regard.  Heading off at the top is multiple Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw who is due back from the IL to face the Mets.  

He is putting together a typical year when healthy enough to pitch, going 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA and over a strikeout per inning pitched.  The big lefty might have had some trouble staying physically available to pitch, but there's no questioning his ability.  Match him up against your choice of deGrom or Scherzer.  

Then there's actually quite a dropoff for the Western Division NL leaders as key starter Walker Buehler left the rotation in late August to have Tommy John Surgery.  That makes him unavailable for the rest of this year and likely all of 2023 as well.  Before he went down he was pitching to a winning 6-3 record, but his ERA was likely reflective of his arm issues as it was 4.02.  

His strikeout numbers being a bit down were also likely an indicator he was not completely capable of pitching as he has done in the past 4 seasons as his career ERA even absorbing his mediocre 2022 is still just 3.03.  Remember, though, he's not here to help the Dodgers anymore this season.

The little known southpaw Julio Urias went from reliever to starter and in 2021 went an almost unbelievable 20-3 with a 2.96 ERA.  This year he's been arguably even better.  His record is 14-7 which suggests a 20-win season is still possible though it would require a very hot September.  What jumps out is his ERA down to just 2.32.

Tony Gonsolin's career started a little late as a fringe player at age 25, but he's slowly worked his way into the regular starting rotation.  This year he was off to a terrific initial 23 games started, going an eye-popping 16-1 with an ERA of just 2.10. 

He's not a strikeout pitcher but in over 128 innings pitched he's only allowed 76 hits and 35 walks.  Unfortunately for the Dodgers, he hit the IL on August 29th.  It's a forearm problem and the manager expects him to miss just two starts, but for the present he's not part of the equation.

The Mets saw Andrew Heaney performing at his very best to open this series.  He sort of forced his way into a starting pitcher role after injuries hit others on the staff.  He's been in 10 games thus far and holds a 2-1 record with a very impressive 2.10 ERA.  For his career he's more of a back end starter with a losing record and a 4.55 ERA, so some backsliding is to be expected.  

Dustin May is currently penciled in as the 5th starter.  He debuted at just age 21 but hasn't stuck in a full time role since then.  For his entire career in the majors he's got a record of 7-6 with a 2.82 ERA which includes 21 starts, 124 IP with 124 strikeouts.  This year he's taken the hill to start just 2 games and he's got a 1-1 record with a 1.64 ERA.  

His potential is good but the track record over parts of four seasons isn't showing enough depth to project results.  In the minors he's pitched just as well as he has in the majors so you kind of shake your head wondering why they haven't expanded his use in the majors.

So without even looking in the mutual bullpens, it seems both teams have or are still continuing to suffer from health problems for their starting rotations.  It's kind of hard to do a point-for-point projection over whose starters are better, but it would appear that the depth of experience provided by the Mets group would probably give them a slight edge over the very formidable but short term results of the Dodger hurlers.  

I feel the Mets dodged (forgive the use of that word) a real bullet with Buehler no longer pitching for Los Angeles.  If I was in Las Vegas I would bet on the Mets pitchers, though I wouldn't bet the farm.