We looked at some of the Mets of Today and Mets of Tomorrow in terms of the position players... now... I'd like to look at the starting pitching situation, as it relates to the minors. I think that there are going to be various opinions on the gentleman of Generation 2K... please take my views for what they're worth... nothing. There are a TON of names... so forgive me for focusing on only my favorites (whom I see in Savannah or above).Starting Rotation:
Johan Santana - Expiration Date 2010
Even a positive guy (when it comes to the Mets) like me can tell that Johan's best... great... and good days are all behind him. What is left is a pitcher who I have faith could be PRETTY good and above average in the middle of most rotations. The major hope with Santana is that he's healthy in 2012 which is NO sure thing.
Jon Niese - Expiration Date (Distant)
Niese is the only pitcher in the rotation right now that I think is a part of the "Met Future". You'll recall I have posted multiple times calling on the Mets to trade him (and still would) if they could get a player like Travis D'Arnaud, Jesus Montero or Wilin Rosario. You'll notice there are some reasonably GREAT names on this list of starters and I didn't bother listing a SINGLE catcher on my other list (Though I considered adding Albert Cordero).
R.A. Dickey - Expiration Date 2013 - 2015
I might not be the only one who is ready to extend R.A. beyond 2012. He's a knuckler and has extended longevity and he's a good human being and leader. I would like a player like Dickey in the rotation when pitchers like Familia, Harvey, Mejia, Wheeler etc... come up.
Mike Pelfrey - Expiration Date 2010 - 2012
Do I think Pelfrey is done? Depends on your definition of done. He's just not good enough to be anything more than a #5 pitcher and he's getting paid too much for what he is. He IS still a perfectly fine #5 pitcher.
Dillon Gee - Expiration Date 2013 - 2015
I am not a Dillon Gee believer. I anticipate that the S.S. Gee will hit an iceberg early in Spring Training and we'll all remember why none of us saw his 2011 success coming.
Chris Schwinden - Peak Ripeness 2012
Schwinden reminds me a lot of Gee and for good reason. He doesn't have a lot of "Stuff" but what he does have... is more "Stuff" than Gee. So... if Gee implodes in 2012 we have someone in the wings... assuming he's not already in the rotation because of injuries.
Pedro Beato - Peak Ripeness 2013
Alderson seems intent on trying an experiment with Beato. He wishes to convert him BACK into a starter. You can all forget Beato starting in 2012 but if ALL goes well... he could be back in the majors in a rotation as early as 2013. That assumes that ALL goes well... which is pretty far-fetched.
Collin McHugh - Peak Ripeness 2012 - 2013McHugh is an interesting pitcher. In terms of "Stuff" he falls around Schwinden (slightly above) and he's a similar style pitcher in that he knows his way around the zone. McHugh is not and never will be an "Ace" but I would bet more on McHugh making it as a starter in the bigs than a number of other guys on this list. At best he fits into the #4 spot of the rotation but the hope is that he'd be no more than a #5 for the future Mets.
Jeurys Familia - Peak Ripeness 2013Familia is going to start in AAA and will have a chance to break into the bigs based on how he does in the first few months of the season (Spring Training included). I'm still betting that Familia will eventually fall into the bullpen but that has more to do with me not seeing THREE pitches on the level of his fastball. If he can develop his secondary offerings he could be a #2 pitcher as soon as 2013. The Mets may need him sooner.
Matt Harvey - Peak Ripeness 2013 - 2014My favorite Met prospect (I'm sure I'm not alone in that) is likely to start the year in AA. If Harvey can channel his success of 2011 in A+ baseball then he should be promoted by mid-year to AAA or EVEN the MLB. The Mets are being more cautious with Harvey (because of where they drafted him) than with Familia. That's fine, I don't think that rushing Harvey serves the team very well. Still... he could justify a 2012 promotion without it being a "RUSH".
Jenrry Mejia - Peak Ripeness 2012 - 2014I like Mejia a ton but his injury pushes him down the charts. Still if he returns to health and glides as easily through AA as he's glided through other levels of the minors... he will probably get a call from Flushing in 2012 before the end of the season. I am one of the few people who write about such things who has more faith in Mejia being in the Met rotation long-term than say... Wheeler. If he struggles in 2012... he WILL be converted into a reliever.
Zack Wheeler - Peak Ripeness 2014 - 2015Zack Wheeler has done nothing as a Met to inspire me to have anything short of extreme faith in him. He has earned his right to start 2012 in AA and will even benefit from the presence of pitchers like Harvey, Mejia and Gorski surrounding him. BECAUSE they are there he is a guy the Mets have no need to rush and I doubt that Wheeler will see a promotion to AAA before the end of 2012... though it wouldn't be impossible.
Darin Gorski - Peak Ripeness 2014 - 2015The Miracle success of 2011... well... in the minors. Gorski is a lefty control pitcher who destroyed 2011 hitters in Port St. Lucie. He won all sorts of awards and is a MUST for making the 2012 AA roster. Looking at his stats... you wonder where it all came from. He went from distinctly mediocre to relevant on a major level in a very short time. Perhaps he figured something out? Perhaps he made a pact with Beelzebub? I don't care... if he pitches that well in AA... he has a future in Flushing.
Brandon Moore - Peak Ripeness 2013 - 2014
Moore probably wouldn't be listed if I hadn't WATCHED him pitch in person. He REALLY isn't half bad. He's got control and the ability to draw swings and misses with his breaking pitches. He's not likely to be anything more than a AAAA pitcher at any point.
Armando Rodriguez - Peak Ripeness 2015 - 2016
Try as I might, I can't promote Armando beyond A+ ball yet. He will get that promotion as soon as there is room. He's fine, if a little vanilla, but I think he COULD have a future in the back of a major league rotation... maybe.
Gregory Peavey - Peak Ripeness 2015 - 2016Peavey was very good in Savannah in 2011 before stumbling a bit in Port St. Lucie. All in all... nothing to complain about. "The Other Pitcher" from the Harvey draft is flying under the radar because the Mets have some BIGGER stories in their minors for a change. That suits me fine as Peavey can get a pressure-less chance to find his footing in Port St. Lucie. If his 2012 goes well I don't think he'll stay off the radar for long.
Taylor Whitendon - Peak Ripeness 2015 - 2017
I thought about adding Taylor's picture because I happen to REALLY like him as a pitcher but as he's not yet pitched in A+ or above I felt it was premature. He seems like he could rise up a lot with a good 2012.
Chase Huchingson - Peak Ripeness 2016 - 2017
I cam even closer to posting a picture of Huchingson who excites me as much as Taylor but is also a lefty. Chase split time starting and relieving in 2011 so I'm betting he repeats Savannah to get more innings as they decide if his future is in the rotation or the bullpen.
Erik Goeddel - Peak Ripeness 2015 - 2017
Why am I less interested in Erik Goeddel than Taylor Whitendon or Chase Huchingson? Frankly... I don't have a reason.
Domingo Tapia - Peak Ripeness 2017 - 2018Tapia is part of the NEXT big crop of talent coming through the pipeline. Fulmer, Urbina and Morris might all meet in Kingsport or Brooklyn in 2012 but I'm betting Tapia makes his way onto the Savannah rotation. He sits comfortably in the mid 90s and has toughed 100 MPH on his fastball. He's even supposed to have a pretty solid secondary offering for his development level. I don't think he's a sure thing, but like most people, I have him as a sleeper on my radar.
AAA, Bufalo Bisons:
1. Chris Schwinden
2. Miguel Batista
3. Colin McHugh
4. Pedro Beato
5. Jeremy Hefner
AA , Binghamton B-Mets:
1. Jeurys Familia
2. Matt Harvey
3. Jenrry Mejia (Mark Cohoon to start the year)
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Darin Gorski
A+, Port St. Lucie Mets:
1. Armando Rodriguez
2. Gregory Peavey
3. Taylor Whitendon
4. Angel Cuan
5. Yohan Almonte
A, Savannah Sand Gnats:
1. Gonzalez Germen
2. Erik Goeddel
3. Chase Huchingson
4. Marcos Camarena
5. Damingo Tapia
13 comments:
Obviously I missed some names, and I wrote this before Miguel Batista was signed.
What about Corey Mazzoni,Logan Verrett, Tyler Pill, Jack Leathersich
Cory Mazzoni was used as a reliever primarily and would require conversion.
Logan Verrett will not start in Savannah or higher.
Tyler Pill would also be a conversion so might spend another season in Brooklyn... but as a starter.
Jack Leathersich will either be fast tracked as a reliever or converted to a starter at Brooklyn or lower.
brandon moore is suspended for the first 50 games for ped use. mejia wont be ready to pitch until the 2nd half. so the AA rotation you have listed really wont look like that
and mazzoni will be a starter this year
I had forgotten about Moore's PED not that he's an important pitcher. With Batista I likely shift Familia back to AA to start the year. Mejia will not be ready to start the year, but in the end the spot is going to someone who probably won't be much of a factor. Perhaps they demote Cohoon?
Mazzoni might be a starter this season but with only a handful of starts under his belt it's hard for me to give him a spot in the Port St. Lucie or Savannah rotations. Perhaps he'll be the "Swing Man" on one or the other. Used like Chase Huchingson was in 2011.
Great post(s) - LOVE the title and the thought behind this. When all of the Minor league "experts" rank the Mets system, they really fail to take into consideration the fact that, for the first time in years, if not decades, the club has finally stocked up on quality arms and, hopefully, in another year, we'll be able to not only better project their success but use some of these arms to acquire other necessary pieces.
Keep up the great work, David!!!
I think 18th is around where the Mets belong... i.e. somewhere in the middle. What they have is depth at some important positions what they lack is depth at certain key spots (Catcher... Short Stop...).
I've still got to do part 3 of this which will focus on the bullpen for Bufalo through Savannah.
i'd like to see cohoon get another crack at starting AAA. especially over some fossil like batista.
i have no problem with familia starting at AA. keep the four horsement (harvey, familia, wheeler and rehabbed mejia)together.
i hope they dont waste a spot in savannah on german. i saw him pitch a few times and he's just ok. and he'd be way too old for that league. find a spot for him in binghamton bullpen and see what you've got. michael hebert would be a better choice for that starting spot in savannah, and he's still just 21. he's a got a big arm and was a pretty high draft pick. seems to be finally healthy
Great job Dave! I'd like to see Zach Dotson have a bounce back year after his PED suspension last year. Hopefully he gets a full season spot in the rotation.
I disagree with Verrett, Pill, Mazzoni & Leathersich as they are college pitchers and personally, I think Pill & Verrett will likely start in Savannah and Mazzoni & Leatherisch will piggyback start in St. Lucie. Mostly all of these draft picks were used as relievers last year since they had a full season of pitching in college already and they wanted to limit their innings. They will all likely be put back in the starting rotations again this year to stretch them back out again.
Starting pitchers are much harder to develop, so if a guy has a chance to start, they will milk that as long as they can before converting back to the pen, i.e. Familia, Mejia, Tapia, Beato, Holt, Carson, etc..
Here's what I came up with, which is fairly similar to your list. It'll be a lot more fun to cope after crushing Mets losses to see 2 hit shutouts pitched down in Binghamton by Harvey or Wheeler. It'll certainly nice to have this kind of problem. Let's go B-Mets!!
Buffalo
SP1 Chris Schwinden
SP2 Jeurys Familia
SP3 Colin McHugh
SP4 Mark Cohoon
SP5 Miguel Batista
DL Jenrry Mejia
Binghamton
SP1 Matt Harvey
SP2 Zack Wheeler
SP3 Darin Gorski
SP4 Greg Peavey
SP5 Armondo Rodriguez
LM Robert Carson
St. Lucie
SP1 Eric Goeddel
SP2 Cory Mazzoni
SP3 Taylor Whitendon
SP4 Chase Huchinson
SP5 Gonzalez German
PG1 Angel Cuan
PG2 Jack Leathersich
Savannah
SP1 Logan Verrett
SP2 Tyler Pill
SP3 Marcos Camerena
SP4 Domingo Tapia
SP5 Nick Panteloiodis
PG1 Brett Mitchell
PG2 Zach Dotson
Closer:
email me at macksmets@gmail.com
I want to ask you a question...
Man that Binghamton Mets rotation looks strong.
Joe:
The great pitching is starting to bubble over a litte in the system.
We all have our '2 cents' on where these kids will start the season, and I never project it correctly.
That being said, a few thoughts.
"Locks" for the B-Mets rotation in April seem to be Harvey, Wheeler, and Gorski
Carson has convertd to a reliever.
Rodriguez pitched pen in winter ball.
The rest is wide open
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