Bullpen Banter - David Wright's Fantasy Value

David Wright, NYM – Wright has a few key things going in his favor, as well as a few going against it. Let’s get the negatives out of the way first. First, his strikeout rates have seen a HUGE jump since 2008. In Wright’s first four full seasons, his K% never exceeded the league average of 17.5%. In his last 3 seasons, his average rate is 22.8%. Not coincidentally, his average for those first four full seasons sat at .311, while his average in the two and a half since sits almost thirty points lower at .284. His average contact rate has also seen a significant decline, from 83.7% from 2005-2008 to 79.6% in the last three seasons. Still, there is light at the end of this tunnel. Many worry about Wright’s declining power numbers, but I don’t so much. If we eliminate the power disaster that was 2009 for David Wright, when playing at newly opened Citi Field clearly threw him off, we find that in Wright’s five other FULL seasons, he averaged 29 homers. That includes a full season at Citi Field in 2010. Last season, even with the lingering injuries and problems, Wright was on pace for 22 homers. This season, the Mets have gotten smart and made the dimensions more manageable at Citi Field, which should also work in Wright’s favor. Add to it that in Wright’s 6 full seasons of work, he has never had less than 19 SB or 87 R, and has eclipsed 26 HR and 100 RBI in 5 of 6 of those seasons. If Wright stays healthy, he may slot in as the #2 third basemen. I have ranked him as if he won’t, but projected him as if he will. Act accordingly. 2012 Projection: .290 BA 26 HR 100 RBI 90 R 18 SB


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