1/25/13

Rant Question - 2013

8 comments

From Ross Clark - Hey Mack, rant/question for you… 

Has pessimism taken over?  No one seems to think the Mets have a chance at even competing next year.  This roster is largely unchanged from last year, excluding the loss of Dickey.  But it is reasonable to believe that Marcum, Harvey, Wheeler and the progression of our very young roster can even out to where we were last year.  That being said in the past couple years when we ended up double digit games back from the playoffs at the end of the year there was always optimism going into the all-star break with an opportunity to make the playoffs at which point the Mets usually fall flat on their face.  This brings me to my question, wouldn't the best plan with or without Bourne be to hope Santana and Buck play well early and net us a return from a team needing a third starter or 10 home runs in the lineup to make the playoffs, would this be able to net us the future outfielders we are looking for if we could throw in some of the lower level high upside pitchers in the system.  Could it net us outfielders that would give the extra bump to have a winning record in the second half of the season as well?  I see the Mets as being better off waiting and selling high on these types of players during the season than trying to squeeze water out of a rock this off season. Can we get what we need if we stay in contention until the break like we have in the past and sell high on the vets?


Mack – quite the question, or questions. Let me break this down

First of all, the trading of Dickey takes 20 victories off a team that had a total of 74. Shawn Marcum and a full season of Matt Harvey will help, but the Mets start this season off with a negative talent level on the opening day 25-man squad.

The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves are doing everything they can to fill in the cracks to an already talented team. The Mets are still developing cracks.

It’s frankly embarrassing to read tonight that Justin Turner and Zach Lutz are going to be used in the outfield during spring training. It was okay for Lutz to play second fiddle to David Wright for what, six years, and now he’s going to be asked to be the second coming of Daniel Murphy?

The fact is that the Mets, under both Omar Minaya and Sandy Alderson have signed and drafted plenty of outfielders. The problem is they haven’t worked out. They picked a projected star outfielder with the first pick in 2011, Brandon Nimmo, but he finished 2012 in rookie ball and doesn’t ETA until 2016. Last year, they passed on college outfielders and picked another shortstop with their first pick. I don’t see a quick fix here.

Your ideas about moving Buck and Santana at the all-star break are sound, but you’re not going to get a team to trade you an outfielder that can help you in the majors the same year. Remember, you’re trading to a team that is trying to make a run for the playoffs. They’ll give you prospects, but not starters.

No, this is a team with excellent depth at pitching and a very talented infield with middle field depth in the system, but the outfield just sucks.

The Mets are going to get back to the playoffs some day because of their pitching. They actually are close to that level now. Don’t get crazy over the projected Atlanta lineup. Yes, it has a lot of talent, but it also has a lot of strikeouts against excellent pitching.

The Mets can’t stand up and announce that they aren’t trying to win in 2013. They need to sell tickets and hot dogs, and programs, and t-shirts.

The addition of Shawn Marcum for one year helps but this one’s for the fans. The real guys (Travis d’Arnaud and Zack Wheeler) won’t arrive until later this year. I think it will be an ugly year, but I expect to have a lot to write about in the minors.

Hang in there as a fan. Both Buck and Santana could get outfield prospects and the plethora of young starters in the system will begin to give the team the opportunity to put some deals together.

I’ve beat the same drum for three years.

2014.

8 comments:

Michael S. said...

Chin up Mack. We have a lot to look forward to this season. The continued maturation of Tejada, Niese, and Davis...Matt Harvey's first full season...Two much anticipated debuts for TDA and Wheeler....A potentially strong starting rotation...Maybe an exciting deadline deal or two.

Maybe no playoff spot, but I'm much more excited about 2013 than I was over 2012.

Mack Ade said...

I had a bad day today...

the Mets world was lit up with the emergence of PR-VP Jay Horwitz to Twitter...

everybody that gets a press pass got quite a kick out of it...

I've scheduled some stuff for Saturday and programmed in a 'War Room' question... I'm going to take a few days away from the Mets...

Spring Training is always a tough time for me when I'm not going

Herb G said...

Hey Mack, hope you can relax and decompress. Better days are a'commin'.

Dickey's departure takes 20 games out of the win column, its true, but Marcum and Harvey could add them back in and more. (Remember, I do wear these rose colored glasses.) I'm thinking Marcum should be good for 12 - 14 wins in a healthy season, and a full year of Harvey should result in at least 10 wins more than the 3 he recorded last year. If Niese continues his growth curve and we get a full season of a healthy Gee, 8 - 10 more wins could be in the cards. But we need to give them decent run support, which is another reason the Mets may need to bite the bullet and sign Bourn.

Herb G said...

I agree that shifting Turner and/or Lutz to the outfield is a pathetic cry for help. Sandy can help himself greatly by pursuing one or more of the outfielders we identified as bona fide trade candidates.

Herb G said...

Moving Buck may or may not be a good idea, depending upon how an existing catcher in the organization (Centeno, Pena, Powell, etc.) steps up and shows he is an adequate back-up to young Travis. Moving Santana at the deadline, however, would be smart. If we pick up most of his salary, we can probably get an elite prospect or two, in return.

Mack Ade said...

Can you possibly comprehend how much of a failure I feel I am after blogging since 2005 and being a beat reporter for Morris Publishing from 2007-2010, to have the man that personally took my press pass away without any explanation get 10,000 Twitter followers in less than one day?

Seven days a week... 5-6 hours a day... 3-6 posts a day... no money. And all I do is write about the team I love.

Michael S. said...

Mack, no one cares about Jay Horowitz. It's the job he does - shill for some of the worst owners in sports. Those followers were probably all referrals from the other reporters who are also just mouthpieces themselves.

Michael S. said...

Herb - There are usually desperate teams looking for help at the deadline and it seems Sandy is adept and playing the market right. Sign Bourn to a 1-year deal. Trade Santana, Marcum, and Bourn at the deadline and add 3-5 prospects to head into next offseason with two precious commodities - young players to deal and financial flexibility.

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