1/16/13

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There on Michael Scannell's post on trading for Justin Upton:

TheCloser said...
Michael, exactly the type of thinking that would potentially get a guy like Upton in Flushing. I'm all in favor for a deal like this or similar to this.

I was thinking of a deal like this myself, just not a 3 way deal, but Dillon Gee and Bobby Parnell were in the deal, as well as Wilmer Flores and basically anyone else not named Wheeler, Harvey, Syndergard, D'arnaud. I would basically give them a list of 10 players, tell them to pick 3 and we pick 1 and see where that takes us. I don't see any other teams blowing them away with trade offers for him and frankly I don't think anyone else will.

If Kevin Towers is demanding anyone of our big 4, well then pass, but if he's willing to take quantity of quality players, then we certainly can match up well with them to make a reasonable deal. We have a lot of extra guys we can throw in as a 5th player as well if needed, Satin, Lutz, Valdespin, McHugh, etc that are ML ready, but not part of our future to sweeten the pot if needed.
Charles said...
I would Not do that deal and the reason is the cost of starting pitching.

Even mediocre pitchers are getting a lot of money, so why would the Mets hand over three pitchers with multiple years of control left for a outfielder that is average at best away from his hitter friendly home ballpark?

Gee, Parnell are both solid major leaguers. The cost of both of them on today's market is A LOT more then Upton's next three years. Now, you'd have to replace them with at least the same quality to make this trade even improve the club. The Mets starting rotation and bullpen are already short and now you'd be really killing it.

I could see parting with Fulmer, Flores, Duda, and another player that isn't on the ML roster or one of the Mets other top prospects.

For Stanton? Yes I make that deal. He's a proven commodity. Upton just has not lived up to his potential. I'm not depleting my rotation and bullpen for a guy I am hoping reaches his potential. With that type of deal, both parties must take that chance. That's why Seattle's package was centered on prospects. Arizona also had to hope it worked out. Check out the splits, Upton is not the same player away from Arizona.
Mack Ade said...
We probably need to put this subject down.

Heyman reports that any deal HAS to have Zack Wheeler in it and the Mets are not going to do that.

It's not worth discussing because they have decided that they will build their future on a 1-2 of Harvey and Wheeler.
Hobie said...
I guess I’m just not that confident on what Upton nrimgs. His 2010 & 2012 were very Duda-like, and that’s the composite Duda. Upton’s 2009/11 were clearly superior to the better Duda, and there’s the defense of course. Duda could be Dunn-lite or a LH Swoboda; I think the jury is still out but certainly there’s a gap between the expected value of Duda v. Upton.

But remember we're not adding JU to a Duda + Gowgill + whatever OF, we’d be replacing. So the question is: what is the value of the delta? Is it Gee + Parnell + Fulmer? Tough question, but I have my doubts.
Hobie said...
That's actually a relief, Mack.

Sign Hairston an continue to explore any number of your Target OF'ers.
Charles said...
I agree, put a fork in it.
Herb G said...
You guys who are ready to bury the Upton trade talks, don't be too hasty to buy a headstone. One dark night soon, Justin could come crawling up out of the grave, brought to life by DR. Frankensandy and his henchman Igor Towers. How many times did we hear that the Dickey talks with this team were going nowhere, and with that team were going nowhere, and . . . suddenly he was wearing a Blue Jays cap.

With due respect, I won't talk down the idea of an Upton trade anymore, at least until the rumors of renewed talks surface once again.
Michael S. said...
Closer - Thanks! If the Mets were to deal for Upton, it would have to be for lesser players than their top prospects. He's a talented player who fits a position of need (Power-hitting RH OF) and there are only a few who might be available, but moving anyone of consequence wouldn't be getting good value.

Charles - I think you're greatly overvaluing Gee at this point. He's a solid #5 starter, maybe a #4 on a second-tier team. Hardly a player you'd hold onto rather than acquire a potential MVP player. This is also considering that if he has a future here, it's likely going to be as a back-end starter (easily replaceable) or in the bullpen (ditto). Parnell is talented but the Mets could very easily sell high. With the organization building up its pitching depth, moving a bullpen arm won't kill them in the long run. I'm not concerned about the 2013 bullpen if it gets the team another foundation piece going forward. Removing Gee and Parnell to acquire a power-hitting OF makes the overall team better, we wouldn't be trading anyone irreplaceable like Matt Harvey or Jon Niese.

Gee and Parnell are worth more over the next 3 years than Upton? Then Sandy should shop the two of them on the open market and see if he can bring back a Nick Franklin and Tajuan Wagner. I understand that starting pitching is valuable, but the Mets have to give to get and this way they'd be able to hold onto their really valuable assets.

I'm not worried about Upton's splits. The same was said of Matt Holliday and he adjusted fine once he left Coors. Upton was a #1 overall pick and performed at a high level in the minors (Top 10 overall for 2 years). I can't see him coming here and being just an average player.

He's only 25 and already has a silver slugger, a top-25 MVP finish and a top-5 MVP finish. He isn't the best (Stanton) but he's damn good and would be a solid improvement to the lineup.

Fulmer, Flores, Duda, + would also be an acceptable trade package and still be a steal. I would hope to hold onto Flores for another trade though. I just think he'll have more trade value than Gee. A lot of teams will be looking for a young 3B and he could be their answer.

Hobie - Upton is decidedly better than Duda and he's the much better bet going forward. This is as much a 2014-15 move as a 2013 move. I don't see Duda playing a significant role on the team by then.

If the Mets decided that they wanted to go into 2013 with an OF of Valdespin-Nieuwenhuis-Upton, I could happily live with that.

SS Tejada
LF Valdespin
3B Wright
1B Davis
RF Upton
2B Murphy
Ca d'Arnaud
CF Nieuwenhuis

...would be good enough for this year. The Mets will still have to add 2 more OF anyway, might as well get one of the 3 needed when the opportunity presents itself.

You're right, there are questions about Upton, but based on all other players that could fit the bill, it's a gamble worth taking especially given his age and upside.

Mack - Okay, noted. I wrote this before Heyman's tweet. I'm doubtful as to whether it's "impossible" without Wheeler, but the Mets aren't desperate for Upton so the Dbacks can pound sand if that's what they require.

Herb - Never say never


TheCloser said...

Upton's trade value will come down, especially of Bourn resigns with Atlanta or Texas. Remember the Johan trade? In this case, wheeler = F-Mart and Of course Towers would ask for our best prospects. Towers knows that Upton will not be a happy camper come ST, so getting the most value for him now, might be something hes interested in. I think the biggest point I'd like to mention is the Justin Upton is only 25 years old!!! He already has 108 Hrs to hit record.

Most prospects arejust breaking into the bigs and hes been around for a few years. I remember seeing an age chart about when players hit their peak performance and if I remember correctly, the best years were 26-29, which is what Upton is entering this season. We don't exactly have anyone like him coming up (Courtney Hawkins would have been nice lol) and I'm of the opinion that Dillon Gee and Bobby Parnell are very expendable considering how I value Upton and knowing starting pitching is where we have some depth in the minor leagues and can replace. Dillon Gee is nothing more than #4 or #5 starter at best and Bobby Parnell hasn't exactly flourished to this point. It's much easier to replace a mid rotation starter and a bullpen arm than a guy that can hit .280/25/85 in an average season.

I guess we'll just need to agree to disagree since we all value Upton very differently. I think his trade value will come down and he can potentially be had without giving up our future core guys, but if not then we move on, but just remember Stanton will potentially cost a whole LOT more than Upton will and he will have many suitors for his services, which will drive his value sky high. 

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