Jim Callis - Last Mock

1. HOUSTON ASTROS: Houston may have a slight preference for Appel, but only at the right price. As a college senior, the July 12 signing deadline doesn’t apply to the Houston native, allowing him to essentially hold a club’s bonus pool hostage if he chooses. The Astros won’t take him without assurances of his cost. There was a lot of buzz Wednesday evening that the Cubs were closing in on a deal with Appel at No. 2, which could mean: a) he’d subsequently try to scare off Houston; b) he’d see if the Astros could trump Chicago’s offer; or c) no agreement is imminent and this is just an attempt to increase his leverage.
For now, I’m sticking with Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray as the No. 1 choice. There’s no indication that his positive drug test for Adderall will affect the stock of BA’s top-rated prospect, and I’m told it’s not an issue with Houston.
Some sources think the Astros would take San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant ahead of Gray. Others believe they’ll seek a heavy discount from their assigned $7,790,400 pick value by taking North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran, but that doesn’t make sense for reasons I outlined in Mock v3.0. Frazier and Meadows are possibilities in a similar scenario.
PROJECTED PICK: Jonathan Gray.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Mark Appel/2.0: Jonathan Gray/3.0: Gray)
2. CHICAGO CUBS: Chicago’s final four consists of the top four college prospects, with the pitchers ahead of the hitters. I’m told Gray’s positive test isn’t an issue with the Cubs either, and some of their decision-makers may prefer him to Appel.
PROJECTED PICK: Mark Appel.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Jonathan Gray/2.0: Mark Appel/3.0: Appel)
3. COLORADO ROCKIES: The top tier of prospects in this draft consists of Gray, Appel and Bryant, and Colorado is expected to take whichever remains. The Rockies have been tied to California high school first baseman Dominic Smith for a while, though Wednesday rumors that they’ll take him if they can’t determine Bryant’s price tag are a bit too much to believe.
PROJECTED PICK: Kris Bryant.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Kris Bryant/2.0: Bryant/2.0: Bryant)
4. MINNESOTA TWINS: Minnesota needs power arms, and assuming that the big three will be gone, I’ve had the Twins tied to Texas high school righthander Kohl Stewart in each of my previous first-round projections. Now there’s word they may look in a different direction, but I think that’s mostly just frustration with how predraft talks have gone with the Texas A&M quarterback recruit. If they do pass on Stewart and there are no surprises in the top three picks, Minnesota likely would take Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire. Indiana high school lefthander Trey Ball, Nevada righty Braden Shipley and Frazier would be other options.
PROJECTED PICK: Kohl Stewart.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Kohl Stewart/2.0: Stewart/3.0: Stewart)
5. CLEVELAND INDIANS: Unless one of the big three drops, Cleveland will choose between Moran and Frazier. The Indians usually prefer college players, but Frazier seems to be gaining steam here. Meadows is another possibility, with Shipley a longshot.
PROJECTED PICK: Colin Moran.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Braden Shipley/2.0: Colin Moran/3.0: Moran)
6. MIAMI MARLINS: Shipley remains in the lead here over Meadows, with Mississippi State outfielder Hunter Renfroe a more distant third option.
PROJECTED PICK: Braden Shipley.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Reese McGuire/2.0: Braden Shipley/3.0: Shipley)
7. BOSTON RED SOX: Boston will take Stewart if Minnesota doesn’t. If he’s gone, the Red Sox likely will take whomever the Indians don’t between Moran and Frazier. I’ve had a hard time pinning down whether Boston prefers Frazier to Meadows.
PROJECTED PICK: Clint Frazier.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Clint Frazier/2.0: Frazier/3.0: Austin Meadows)
8. KANSAS CITY ROYALS: It’s no secret Kansas City wants a pitcher. If Stewart and Shipley aren’t available, the Royals will choose between Ball and California high school righthander Phil Bickford. Bickford has helium after a spectacular start on Saturday in which he struck out 18 (including the final 11 batters) in seven innings. He also has a reported $3 million price tag, which fits with Kansas City’s assigned value ($3,137,800) but could make him a tough sign if he doesn’t go here. If the Royals go with a hitter, New Mexico corner infielder D.J. Peterson appears to be their man.
PROJECTED PICK: Trey Ball.
(Mock draft 1.0: Ryne Stanek/2.0: Trey Ball/3.0: Ball)
9. PITTSBURGH PIRATES (compensation pick for failure to sign 2013 first-rounder Mark Appel): Pittsburgh also has interest in Peterson but might be able to wait and get him with its No. 14 selection. The Pirates probably can’t do the same with McGuire, Meadows or Ball and will take one of them here.
PROJECTED PICK: Reese McGuire.
(Mock draft 1.0: Colin Moran/2.0: Reese McGuire/3.0: McGuire)
10. TORONTO BLUE JAYS: Toronto will take a high-ceiling talent. I believe the Jays’ pecking order is Stewart or Frazier, followed by Meadows, Ball, McGuire and California high school shortstop J.P. Crawford.
PROJECTED PICK: Austin Meadows.
(Mock draft 1.0: Trey Ball/2.0: Austin Meadows/3.0: Clint Frazier)
11. NEW YORK METS: Tough call here, because a lot of people think Peterson is New York’s primary target. The Mets are linked mostly to hitters, such as Meadows, McGuire, Smith and Renfroe. But there’s also a steep drop in college starters, and I think New York believes that drop begins after Arkansas righthander Ryne Stanek.
PROJECTED PICK: Ryne Stanek.
(Mock draft 1.0: D.J. Peterson/2.0: Ryne Stanek/3.0: Stanek)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-4-0-the-final-countdown/