Stephen Guibert - 2013 Draft Logic and What We Can Deduce about the Mets #11 Pick

2013 Draft Logic and What We Can Deduce about the Mets #11 Pick

Mark Appel, Jonathan Grey, Kris Bryant, and Colin Moran will be off the board.

While I do believe certain players might fall and we could have a steal available at #11, I do not believe Kohl Stewart, Reese McGuire, or Braden Shipley will.

We have two Georgia high school bats who Sandy will take if they are available: Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier. While there is an outside chance one will fall to the Mets, I can guarantee you that both will not. A betting man would be wise to assume both will be off the board by the Mets turn.

I just named nine players at the top of teams’ draft boards who the Mets would take in a heartbeat but will not likely be around. Who does that leave us?

Per Mack’s rankings (which are excellent…scroll down the page to take a look at them): Trey Ball, Austin Wilson, Ryne Stanek, Dom Smith, Hunter Renfroe, D.J. Peterson, Aaron Judge, Chris Anderson, J.P. Crawford, Ian Clarkin, and Phil Ervin, among many other attractive options, will still be on the board.

The Mets will not draft for position. Mark my words. With the #11 pick, they will take the best player on the board. While we may need outfielders, if Colin Moran is available, you freakin’ take Colin Moran.

That being said, Sandy Alderson and his team have a timetable for winning and they did quite a bit to protect this pick last off-season (cf. Michael Bourn). This is going to be a player he can put through the system for the next wave of talent (think with Syndergaard and Nimmo). This leads me to believe the Mets will not select a high school player, despite taking two high school picks each of the past two drafts.

That leaves the collegiate athletes to examine. So, what has Sandy/Ricciardi/Depo done the past two drafts with his college players? He’s taken control pitchers with good pitch repertoires (Logan Verrett, Jack Leathersich, Cory Mazzoni) and contact hitters with good eyes, high averages, and strong defensive ability (Plawecki, Boyd).

While I think the team will go a different source with the first pick this year than in ’11 and ’12, I do think they’ll stick to the script for the type of player they want.

Some draft “experts” have tied the Mets to behemoth outfielder Aaron Judge and I just do not see why the Mets will take him based on their tendencies the past two drafts. While he has the size to hit a ton of homers, his long ball rate at Fresno was not as Victor Roache-esque as I thought it would be. He strikes out a ton as well. This is a risk the Mets cannot take and it just does not fit in with their draft tendencies. Cross him off the list.

Mack loves Austin Wilson but I think you can cross his name off the list as well. I would love him but there will be better hitters on the board and ones who fit the profile a bit better.

To me, this leaves us with three college hitters the Mets will look at: D.J. Peterson (1B/3B)- New Mexico and Hunter Renfroe (OF- Missisippi State). Renfroe played in the tougher league, Peterson put up the better numbers. Peterson has the better eye, Renfroe is a better defender. Ultimately, I think the Mets go with Peterson here. Yes, he would have to transition to first, most likely, but the Mets might have a need there in the next few years. They could also try him in the outfield. The bat might be the best in the class, though, and this would be a great pick if he were still on the board.

Samford OF Phil Ervin is my sleeper pick for a collegiate hitter and one of my favorite prospects in this draft. He just seems like a Sandy pick and he does everything well. Where Renfroe, Peterson, Judge, and Wilson all have concerns of holes, Ervin does everything. Peterson is the better hitter but Ervin is the more complete player. You cannot go wrong with either but my call still leans towards Peterson.

How about pitchers? Yea, the Mets have a lot of pitchers in the system and a lot of power righties. That would make you think that someone like RHP Ryne Stanek would be a “pass”, right? Probably not. Look, if Stanek is #1 overall on Depo’s draft board and ten teams pass on him? The Mets will take him. No need for the entire clock. He’s ours. While I do not think they have him this high, I do believe he is up their on the big board. He might be a future reliever but his fastball is already plus to plus-plus and his two off-speed pitches generate swings and misses. Teach this kid a circle change and he’s Gerrit Cole. Remember his name.

Apart from Stanek, I see the Mets passing on LHP Sean Manaea because of risk, again. He could be the best pitcher in this draft but had an odd injury and velocity inconsistency. He is the type of player the Giants or Cardinals will draft late in the first round and he will become the next great ace of their staffs but I understand passing on him. The Mets need an impact player at #11 and Manaea—while that type of pitcher—comes with too much risk.

RHP Braden Shipley would be a great pick but I just do not see him being around.

RHP Chris Anderson could be a sleeper pick for the Mets but I see him falling later than people are projecting.

In a nutshell, I see the following as the most likely options for the Mets:

D.J. Peterson

Phillip Ervin

Hunter Renfroe

Ryne Stanek

And, only if they fall:

OF Austin Meadows or OF Clint Frazier.

Some draft experts have said Peterson's bat is the
best of the class

My prediction at this point is D.J. Peterson. You just cannot pass on that bat. Teach him how to play

first. If Ike comes around, you have a Wil Myers-caliber trade chip and if he doesn’t, a first baseman of the future.

If I am wrong and the Mets do go with a high school bat or arm, look to 1B Dom Smith. He is the only high school bat I could see the Mets taking and I just do not see them reaching for a high school arm (If you do, though, you go with LHPs Trey Ball or Robert Kaminsky [more on him below]). 

I will have a mock draft coming later today. Thanks for reading and thanks to Mack for inviting me back for this draft season.

As a footnote to this article, I just wanted to highlight my favorite player in this draft: Local Jersey LHP Robert Kaminsky. Before lauding him for his talent and accomplishments, just look at this stat line:

9-0, 0.18 ERA, 119 K in 64 innings.

That was what he did this year. That's Lance McCullers Jr.-esque. He’s got a low-90s fastball with a sick curve and a change that is coming along. I see no difference between this kid and Max Fried who was a top-10 pick last year. Except for size (Kaminsky is a few inches shorter). This is the guy I want the Mets to draft.

They never will. Whomever does get him, though, has a steal. He is one of the best arms available, is a lefty, and fits that Moneyball bill—he’s undervalued by everyone. He plays in New Jersey (meaning he hasn’t faced California or Texas hitters or whatever draft pundits seem to think matters…the kid is filthy) and is only 6’0” tall. Guess what…17-year-old kids grow and he already has a filthy repertoire. Oh yea, and his numbers are better than everyone projected to be taken in the first round. Everyone. That includes Kohl Stewart, Trey Ball, Ian Clarkin and Hunter Harvey…all projected to be taken higher.