I received an email from Michael Scannell:
I know my opinion is in the minority, but after hearing Alderson say that if Harvey is out for 2014 he's going to bring in a veteran starter it leads me to believe two things:
1) The FO is still planning on competing for a playoff spot next year. If not, why bring in a starter when there is a lot of pitching depth on the team without Harvey? A top 3 of Wheeler, Niese, Gee would be good enough in another rebuilding year and Torres can hold down a spot until Syndergaard is ready. That's 4 out of 5 pitchers with Mejia, Montero, deGrom, et. al. to compete for the 5th spot.
2) Regardless of what Alderson has said, trading some pitching depth WAS and STILL IS on the table. Bringing in another veteran starter gives the Mets back their depth for 2014 at least and allows the team to deal an arm or two to bring in a bat.
If I was making the decisions, I'd sign Bronson Arroyo to a 2-year contract and make Gee expendable in trade. Arroyo can slot in as Wheeler-Niese-Arroyo-Torres-
Then, in 2015, the top 4 in the rotation resumes as Harvey-Syndergaard-Niese-
So, my question is... maybe we're approaching this free agent stuff all wrong... why don't we sign another starter and then trade one of the current ones on the staff... either Gee or Niese... for an established outfielder under contract with another team?
Your opening day 2014 rotation, at worse, would be Wheeler, Niese or Gee, Mejia, Montero, and New Guy. July brings aboard Noah Syndergaard.
Thoughts?
31 comments:
I don't see a scenario where Torres is slotted in as a starter for the Mets. I'd like to see Mejia starting but it is very disconcerting that Alderson fails to even mention him when speaking of next years starting rotation. I think the front office needs to decide what it wants from an imported starter. Does it want purely innings? Then perhaps Arroyo is an option. Do they prioritize leadership? Then may be Hudson is the ideal target. Do they want a top of rotation starter? Not sure that is on the free agent market. May be Garza but his injury history is a huge concern. Probably need to trade for frontline starter. David Price and gut the farm system? Would Alderson do a Santana type trade and sign? Somehow I doubt it. If they can make that trade and not include Syndergaard then may be. Reclamation project then does Phil Hughes on a one year deal make sense. This all depends on what the Mets prioritize. May be a Duda or Davis for Hellickson trade. May have to include someone like Robles. I don't see Mets trading for outfielder. Quite frankly with Puello, Vaughn, Cecelliani, Lawley all knocking on the door and with Den Dekker and Lagares already up in the majors I think the Mets are going to be looking for one of Choo or Ellsbury (with recent injury and Boras getting burned in free agent market lately I see him signing back with Red Sox) and then one of Byrd or Beltran. Short term one or two year deals so that they can open outfield spots when players from minors are ready. So let's see Alderson prove everyone wrong and go all in and trade Montero, Duda, one A ball pitcher of their choosing, and one additional prospect for Price and then sign Choo and Beltran or Byrd.
I agree 100%. Our best trade chips include Gee, Montero, Flores & Murphy. We could sign a starter on a short term deal, then trade away Gee & Flores in a deal to bring us back a solid outfielder or shortstop. There just won't be enough rotation spots for Harvey, Niese, Wheeler, Gee, Syndergaard, Montero & Mejia in 2015. Also add deGrom, Hefner, Mazzoni, Verrett and a couple other young arms a little further away. We are in an enviable position with a ton of starting pitching.
I really hope they sign Gee to a contract extension buying out his arbitration years and send him off.
Now in terms of which starter, I'm saying Josh Johnson or Lincecum. They have the highest upside. Lets give them a 1 year with a high salary plus incentives. They could come pitch in a pitchers park and reestablish value. We could always move them at the deadline and bring up Syndergaard if its the right move.
I had previously mentioned Dan Haren but the dude is garbage and forgot how to pitch.
Zero chance of that trade for Price happening. Tampa wouldn't even pick up the phone.
If I'm Sandy, and as long as we finish with a protected pick, I go out and try to sign Shin-Soo Choo to an expensive, short-term type deal, like maybe 2 years, 40 million, and have him patrol right field. He would really solidify the outfield, and having him and EY occupying the first spots in the order would really go a long way towards having a successful season. I also think that a trade for Mark Trumbo, for a package of Gee and Duda, would be beneficial for both teams and give the Mets the kind of power and protection they'd love behind Wright, and would fill the hole at first base as well. Maybe I'm underrating Trumbo or possibly overrating Gee and Duda, but Gee has been so impressive this year and would solidify the middle of that Angels rotation, and Duda could easily take over as the DH right away. Throw a lucrative one-year deal at Bartolo Colon, add some spare parts and the team already looks considerably better than it did this year, and could possibly compete for a playoff spot if all goes the right
1. EY 2. Choo 3. Wright 4. Trumbo 5. Murphy 6. d'Arnaud 7. Lagares 8. Tejeda
Recker, Satin, Turner, Andrew Brown and some super-sub like Willie Bloomquist
Wheeler, Niese, Colon, Mejia, Montero in the rotation to start the year
Parnell closing, Vic Black, Hawkins, Familia, Edgin, Joaquin Beniot and maybe give Feliciano or Rice another shot.
Crazy thought. If adding up to $5.5M to any other FA price would get Santana back, K think I'd do it
I vote to stick with our homegrown starting pitchers in 2014 and allocate resources elsewhere. They have enough arms in-house...but not enough to start trading away because of the Harvey injury.
Maybe Santana on a Marcum contract?
I used to scream that the Mets should trade either Niese or Gee. Then Harvey got hurt...
Now I think it's insane to trade any of the pitchers. The Mets will have enough money coming off the books and they should easily afford to spend it on players to make this roster playoff caliber.
Why trade from a stable of young arms that just got smaller when you can simply spend some cash?
This past year alone, the Mets had a lot of pitchers miss significant time. Santana, Harvey, Marcum, Niese, Mazzoni, Mateo, Fulmer, Fransisco, Parnell, Pill, Mejia, Robles, Edgin....
Am I missing anyone? We know how fickle the depth of professional pitching can be. Why give up any more of it? If the Mets had payroll constraints I'd be screaming for a trade, but they don't.
They'll go into the off season with maybe 50 mill in salary obligations. Why can't they spend 50/60 more, bring the payroll up to about 100/110, and fill out the roster with some proven talent? I'm mean, enough is enough with this small market bs. This is NY!!!
The issue becomes if you don't move anyone you wind up with Harvey, wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese, gee, mejia, Montero, Hefner and a mess of AAA 5th starters and enough pitchers for two 5 man rotations.
Not enough room in queens for all these guys so somebody needs to get moved. Trade from our surplus to fill our weaknesses.
Choo is bad versus lefties and paying FA money to splits like that would be crazy, given some of the quality lefties within the division. While Byrd did well this year he is getting old and his career really does not support the numbers( career year).
I would be in favor of signing a short term deal with a starting pitcher - I like the idea of either Lincecum or Johnson on 1 or 2 year deals with incentives. Clearly it is never a bad thing to give Alderson as many trade assets as possible.
I think that there are two interesting things happening right now with our farm system. First are we going to be able to promote nearly the entire Binghamton team to Las Vegas and avoid having to sign the Val Pasucucci and Giancarlo Alvarado's of the world for the time being? I think it will be nice to have Triple AAA stocked with the Eric Campbell and Zack Lutz's of the world instead - homegrown AAAA players. Second, five years from now are we going to be able to look at rosters across the majors and say check out how many of these guys came through our system. I think that if the pitching talent level is as good as we believe it to be, then there will be more games like the Kazmir game where we are facing our old prospects, ie Kazmir & Smith. This could make for some interesting games because while we root for the Mets we also, if we follow the minors, tend to root for our favorite prospects also...
You don't have to look any further than the Evil empire across town to know that a new era is upon us. With teams locking up their best young players early you simply can't "buy" a championship like you could just a few years ago. Just ask the Yankees if a SP 1 like CC Sabathia or a power hitting Stud like Teixeira are available anymore even if you have the money to spend. I would sign short term Arroyo or Lincecum and either Beltran or Byrd and that way give the youngsters like Puello, DD, Travis, Lagares, Flores and a host of pitching propects more development time so while we wait for Harvey we might actually put together a contending team.
Yeah Kevin, but not next year. If the Mets want to win, they need good pitching and with arguably a top 5 ML starter in Harvey, they'll need proven ML starters that they can count on.
Right now only Niese and Gee fits into that category.
If I'm them, I'd sign Garza, slot him in as you number three and then I might trade Gee. They'll have enough cash to sign him and keep the rest anyway.
If sign Choo and Pence, put them at the corner OF spots and use a cf platoon of Lagaras and DD.
Remember reading one of the commenters over at Metsblog about signing a veteran like Doc Halladay on a incentive laden contract ... thought it could be very interesting ... brings some veteran leadership and play off experience to a very young staff. Rest of the rotation would be Wheeler, Niese, Gee, and Mejia. Mejia would probably be on an innings limit next year, so having Syndergaard and Montero to start the year in AAA is nice insurance.
okay...
First of all, the Mets only goal this year is to secure a protected pick so Alderson can go into the off-season not worrying about losing a pick he would never agree to give up.
Next, you need to protect your strength and that is starters. The excess of injuries this year, last year, and the years before that only tell you that it will happen again. My guess is the promotion of Noah Syndergaard will come when somebody goes down, not when the team originally wanted to bring him up.
I continue to promote a contract deal for Dillon Gee similar to the one Jon Niese has if for no other reason than to have them prime for any trade for a SS or an OFer.
Regarding the outfield, the emergence of Juan Lagares has thrown off what I consider the minimum needed to make it as a major league starter. I barely considered him a 5th outfielder someday and here he's in the run for ROY.
I'll say this about the guys we do have in this system... if eventually sometime in 2014 you put Dustin Lawley and Cesar Puello in the outfield, Wilmer Flores on second and Lucas Duda (platooned with Josh Satin) at first, you have six guys (with David Wright and Travis d'Arnaud) in your lineup that can and probably would produce 15+ home runs in a season. That's a decent amount of pop these days for a team with this kind of pitching.
I would bring in someone like Bronson Arroyo just to stabilize the current rotation through these injury times.
I would then forget about Choo and Ellsbury and use either Niese or Gee to build myself a trade around a younger every day outfielder
While I agree that the Mets have a nice young stable of outfielders to potentially choose from I wonder how much this offseason is going to be making a splash for the sake of making a splash in free agency. Obviously there are fans that just don't believe in our minor league system and would like the Mets to prove that their financial woes are behind them by signing a major free agent. I don't think Sandy is going to buy Boras buy over market mantra for credibility and thus my guess is Choo is out or at least a long shot. I think the most likely scenario is Ellsbury back to the Red Sox. Hunter Pence is interesting option but I think there is mutual interest in him resigning with the Giants. Beltran and Byrd are probably most likely options but not marquee names at this point.
Jim Duquette @Jim_Duquette
Mets were already considering adding a veteran pitcher this off season, the Harvey decision will obviously impact the quality and number
I don't think there's a more important thing the Mets can do this off season then to go out and sign somebody to a big contract.
Lets face it, the fans aren't coming to the ballpark anymore. They need to show their fans that the last few years of no spending is over. They need to be players, legit players, this year and make those headlines. I believe the Wilpons know this. Fred basically stapled his balls to the floor in spring training by saying all the money issues were over after all the good players had been signed already. Now they have no choice.
Sandy did his part by trading Bryd. With Wright, Harvey, and Davis out with injuries this team should end up with about the 8th or 9th pick in the draft. They'll probably sign a big time outfielder and maybe even a pitcher. They'll lose their second and third round picks, but keep the top ten one which is ideal.
I fully expect this team to be a contender for the division next year. I hope they have a new manager, but I think they'll retain Terry who will probably resign for another two years at cheap money.
Just a few more months, it's gone so fast. Can't wait to see how it works out.
I should know better by now, but I still react to Michael S.’s suggestions with an initial “Wha?” before inevitably realizing ho much sense he makes and then I try to find some scheme to implement it.
So Michael, you win again. I’m on board.
Sign Santana. If you’re thinking of offering Arroyo $12M, and you can get Santana for $15M, you SAVE $2.5M. I’m betting that Johan has a better 2014 than Bronson. In fact, before signing any FA pitcher (+ Santana's $5.5 buyout) ask whether that 5.5 could land Johan.
Trade Wheeler(!), Germen, & (one of) Leather/Verrett/Tapia, plus Ike, Flores, & Tejada to COL for Tulo, Pomeranz & Kyle Parker.
Sign Beltran.
Then (v RHP/LHP):
1—EYJ(LF)/Legares(CF); 2—Murphy(2B); 3—Wright(3B); 4—Tulo(SS); 5—Beltran(RF); 6—Td’A(C); 7—Duda/Satin(1B); 8—dD(CF)/Brown(LF)
I see no reason Torres could not be slotted as a back end starter. He's pitched well in a starting role and can transition to the bullpen once a prospect comes up. He's a tailor-made placeholder.
- There isn't enough offensive talent on the FA market to build a truly intimidating lineup. A trade will have to be made. Most star players don't make it to FA and the Mets need another one.
- Hobie:
I'd be fine with bringing Santana back on the cheap as well as Arroyo.
I like your Colorado idea, as it removes Ike, brings in Pomeranz, and gets my favorite trade target Tulowitzki, I would just try and model the trade on the Justin Upton deal and provide quantity more than quality and substitute Gee and Montero for Wheeler.
The reason I think Torres shouldn't be a fifth starter is because he'll make the bullpen better. This "we'll get by crap" the Mets have been doing lately while they wait for their youngs arms to pass the super two has only worked because Harvey and Wheeler needed a little more seasoning.
Montero has pitched wonderfully in AA and after a little speed bump adjusting to Vegas, he started to again be lights out. He put up great numbers in his last few starts. He'll be ready in April. I say slot him in as your number five and keep Torres in the bullpen.
My plan is simple: the Wilpon checkbook comes out of its exhibit at the Smithsonian and the NY mets start acting like they play in the biggest market on Earth.
Sign Hunter Pence and Choo.
Sign Matt Garza
Niese, Garza, Wheeler, Mejia, Gee or Montero
Choo
Tejada
Wright
Davis
Pence
Flores
DarNo
Lagaras/DenDekker platoon
Pitcher
Put Murphy, Satin, EYjr, and Centeno on the bench
Parnell, Black, Familia, Edgin, Torres, Hawkins, Feliciano and Walters in the pen
Strong rotation, strong lineup, strong bullpen, good bench(could use more power)
Didn't have to trade any of my young pitching in a time when Mets pitching is always getting hurt.
At the deadline, you'd have Montero and Thor ready and could possibly trade a good ML starter to help fill whatever void the team has need of going into the second half.
Payroll: I don't see how it could be more then 105/110 million.
If Montero is ready, start him in April. We have no argument there.
However, I can't see a lineup that hits Tejada second and Ike Davis cleanup as being strong.
Hence the need for a trade.
Michael:
Everything I'm being told is that Davis will not be tendered.
He'll be tendered unless they have a definite replacement...
I just don't see them getting anyone better then Tejada at SS and Ike at first. Although it wouldn't shock me if they traded Ike and put Duda at first if it meant getting a legit OFer.
the plan... 'today'... is for Duda to split time with Satin
I'm actually working on a piece called "Screw it, put Duda at 1B".
If he has the position and hits lower in the order (7th) he's fine. But the Mets have to add a real run producing threat for the middle if the order. Say it with me now....."TRADE"
As far as Montero v Torres to start the year in the rotation, I'm going with Torres because I'm doing everything I can to trade for a hitter in addition to signing a FA or two.
I could live with a platoon at 1B and one at CF as well. These would be 2014 solutions but not long term. The bottom of the lineup could go
6. Ca d'Arnaud
7. 1B Duda/Satin
8. CF Lagares/den Dekker
It's a shame that he likely has no trade value given what he'll likely make next year. I could see him included in a deal if he made the same next year as this, but at over $5M he's a black hole.
Well, first off I agree wholeheartedly with Alderson stating that he will add a legit veteran starter. He should do this whether Harvey gets TJS or not, as he will be only one pitch away if he avoids surgery at this time. Last I looked, the Mets' biggest is still runs against. Pittsburgh has scored less than the Mets and will make the playoffs and perhaps win the NL central. Kazmir would be an interesting addition. Santana is too risky - they need to avoid a repeat of the Marcum injury story. Like others mentioned about, I would avoid dealing any top pitching prospects and use the checkbook to find a leadoff and power hitter. They also need to find a plus defending SS to help the pitching.
Mike, I just don't get why you'd want to trade anyone of the pitchers when the mets could simply and finally spend some money?
The braves traded a bunch of nice prospects for Upton and he didn't have a huge year. Look at what Toronto did. They had one of the five best systems in the majors, traded away about 7 of their top 10 prospects for proven ML players and now sit in last place with a bunch of unmovable contracts.
The Mets have two players signed to contracts, Wright and Niese. They have a bunch that are arbitration eligable and a bunch who will make near the minimum. All together, you're looking at about 50 million which doesn't even include Santana's buy out because Sandy was smart and put that figure against this year's payroll. That's what you call a clean slate...
Granted, the FA market isn't dynamite, but it isn't that bad either. They need outfielders. I give you Choo, Beltran, Bryd, Pence, and Elsbury. Sign any two and you've significantly bettered this team without giving up a single prospect, while also maintaining a payroll that won't financially cripple the team if they don't win.
They'll still have room to operate without having to close the store and wait another three years for the contracts to expire. This franchise won't survive unless they start spending again. The fans will never show up and pay those prices if they don't start putting some money on the field.
Who exactly are you looking to trade? Montero? Thor? Those are the only two young pitchers with any value and they alone won't bring back anything better then a player like Pence or Choo anyway. You'd have to add a Flores and possibly even more. Which to me isn't a great way to use your resources.
Say you trade those two players for an outfielder. Say that outfielder hits .280, 21 hr, 90 RBI. Okay, good hitter and he's productive. Now, I say keep those two and sign Pence. He'd give you basically the same season and you could also get .275, 16 hr, 80 RBI from Flores and Montero might win 7 or 8 games down the stretch. To me, your better off just signing a guy then you are trading away young ML ready players to get one.
Look at the marlins. After that Toronto deal, they're closer to contention, using a lot of Toronto's own prospects, then the bluejays are. That's a kick in the balls right there. Either way, I highly doubt Sandy would ever trade a package if prospects away, or at least what it would take, to get a legit bat.
For all the hype I hear about de Grom (once you get past the Montero/Thor beatification), I never hear anyone say "boo" about Gorski. Now that he is healthy, he posted a sub 2.00 ERA and is a second lefty in the rotation. At age 25 he could make the move to the major league rotation. I know he's not a "sexy" name because for a big guy he's a soft tosser. But he's posted three pretty remarkable stints in the minors while healthy. While not, he got smacked around in Las Vegas. Remember, however, that both Hefner and Gee couldn't buy an out in the beginning of the year and they were healthy. Then something clicked and both pitched well. If they were given benefit of doubt, how about one for the big lefty who has been lights out again this year?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gorski001dar
If you're not going to play him, his numbers are so gaudy you might get someone to bite as you look to improve other positions.
Regarding veterans worth considering, I'd look at Ervin Santana before I'd consider Johan Santana. My personal FA target would be Scott Feldman.
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