Mack Ade – AM Report – 9-13-13 – Bobby V, Choo, Beltran, Dom, Wally, TC

“I've never met a pitcher who consistently repeated mechanics before age 20.  Be patient; development takes time and has hills and valleys.”  – Eric Cressey

 

Bobby V on 9-11 –

                “Let it be said that during the time from 9/11 to 9/21, the Yankees were (not around),” Valentine told Joe Benigno and Evan Roberts on Wednesday. “You couldn’t find a Yankee on the streets of New York City. You couldn’t find a Yankee down at Ground Zero, talking to the guys who were working 24/7.”

“Many of them didn’t live here, and so it wasn’t their fault. And many of them did not partake in all that, so there was some of that jealousy going around. Like, ‘Why are we so tired? Why are we wasted? Why have we been to the funerals and the firehouses, and the Yankees are getting all the credit for bringing baseball back?’ And I said ‘This isn’t about credit, guys. This is about doing the right thing.’”

Mack – Did Bobby V really say this?  I’ve heard and read a lot of shit coming out of his mouth over the years, but is he really going to use 9-11 as a bargaining chip against the Yankees? Jeez, what a creep.

 

John Heyman –

                Based on the needs of the Mets and the strengths of the player, Choo looks like the biggest potential target for the Mets this winter. As an excellent corner outfielder with a big on-base percentage, he actually looks like a perfect fit, and Mets people have indeed have discussed him internally at length. With the biggest free agent Robinson Cano seen as most likely to return to the Yankees (or possibly go to the Dodgers if they make a big play for him) and Mets people comfortable with going with the emerging Juan Lagares in center field (which makes Jacoby Ellsbury an unlikely prime target for them), Choo could easily emerge as the biggest player on the Mets' radar. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/23593568/something-to-choo-on-will-mets-once-again-take-big-freeagent-plunge

Mack – Sandy Alderson made it very clear that the Mets are not going to join the bidding wars for the big dudes out there… Cano, Ellsbury, Cuban 1Bmen… Choo on one side and Beltran on the other would sure change this team overnight, especially, if Harvey comes back on opening day

 

Chris McShane –

Carlos Beltran: It goes without saying that a Beltran return to the Mets would be great. He’s been excellent since 2011, the year he was traded for Zack Wheeler, and hasn’t been on the disabled list since hurting his wrist with the Giants shortly after the trade. The only thing that might screw this potential reunion up—aside from his history with the Mets, of course—is if the Cardinals give him a qualifying offer for next year. With their crop of talented young players and Beltran turning 37 soon, let’s just hope that doesn’t happen. Come back, Carlos. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2013/7/19/4536460/mets-sandy-alderson-carlos-beltran-free-agent-new-york-rumors

 

TTF on Dominic Smith

1B - The 6’-1” left-handed hitter and, arguably the best pure prep bat in the draft, started off a little rusty hitting just .259/.359/.348 over his first 40 games for the GCL Mets. He then finished the year on a ridiculous tear, hitting .447/.512/.658 over his final 11 games, including going 4-for-6 with four doubles over three games for Kingsport of the Appy League. He has excellent bat speed, an advanced approach at the plate and should be a high-average hitter with good power numbers. This is a kid who hit .551 with a .643 OBP and struck out just 21 times over 105 games in his prep career. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2013-mlb-draft-final-recap-first-round/37515#vSoiDb8pf7W34WxO.99

 

 

Andrew Vazzano ‏@AVSNY  - Interesting... Thoughts? - RT @DonCheech: If Wally Backman was never a Met, no one would want him as manager

                I don’t know who this ‘DonCheech’ is but, he’s hit the nail on the head.

IMO, Backman, at best, would be at the Long Island Duck level, or outside of baseball signing autographs in some mall in Paramus, New Jersey. Everybody is giving him a tip of the hat for going as far as he did with an end of the season lineup just about completely different than it was at the beginning of the season. Well, all those early season guys replaced players like Ruben Tejada, Ike Davis, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis who were sent back to AAA after failing at the pro level. This didn’t make for a bad AAA team… and it may have actually made for a better one. It’s not the same as promoting 8-10 players from AA or picking apart the waivers wire.

My vote would go to Pedro Lopez as the Las Vegas manager for, hopefully, the last season the Mets will play in that city. Lopez was added yesterday to the Mets bench. Backman, who was invited last year, wasn’t invited this year. Any questions?

 

MetsBlog - Terry Collins all but guaranteed to be back in 2014 –

I think Matt Cerrone put it best: “In either case, it seems Collins will be manager again. That’s fine by me, so long as they give him better players to manage. I don’t care who is managing, because if he’s repeatedly asked to manage a Triple-A lineup, he’s going to get Triple-A results.”

Cerrone also says that the given is a two-year deal. I have no problem with one year, but two is okay in my book if the Mets are willing to eat the last year if things go south. The 2013 Mets have basically been David Wright, a guy coming back from a PED charge, low end free agency signees, and a bunch of kids from a system that Collins once managed. His problems in the past came from managing real star baseball players.

We don’t know how he will handle a lineup with 2-3 quality free agency signees. It would be great to find out for so many reasons..

 

 

Lastly, Mike Friere sent me an article to share with the readers here. He didn’t have the name of the author or the address of the online site, so apologies to those people. I found this interesting:

Runs Enhancement, Suppression or Both?

Sadly, since the end of the 2007 season, Mets' fans have not had a lot to cheer about.  Over the last six seasons, the beginning of September usually means taking stock of what little we have and making long lists of what we need to become contenders again.  This process has been extremely frustrating since the Wilpon's imposed a "soft freeze" on salary increases, which in turn has restricted Sandy's ability to dabble in free agency.

The "freeze" on salaries appears to be a thing of the past, if the rumors circulating in the media are to be believed.   Our collective wishes and "list making" will be much more satisfying this off season, if that is indeed the case.

However, before lists are made and free agents are courted, isn't it wise to have an overall goal in mind first?  Others may refer to that as having "a plan" in place.  Once that is decided, then obtaining the "right" players is much easier, in my humble opinion.  Sort of like planning a trip and knowing the best route, prior to getting in the car and driving down the street (as opposed to letting Omar drive randomly down the road at 100 miles per hour, with his eyes closed).  Regardless of the plan, the following tenant must be the central theme of any personnel changes;

***Successful baseball teams score more runs than the opposition***

The Yoda of the "Sabermetrics World", Bill James, created a simple formula that uses a team's runs scored and runs allowed, to predict an overall record (expressed in winning percentage).   For those of you that like math, here is the basic formula (yes, there are other versions, but this one is still pretty accurate);

(Runs Scored)2 divided by (Runs Scored)2 + (Runs Allowed)2

Let's look at our beloved Mets' breakdown, to date (prior to the Nationals game on 09/10/13);

564 runs scored and 617 runs allowed (eliminating the boring math), equals an expected winning percentage of 0.455 or a expected record of 74-88 at season's end.   As we already know, we are closer to picking first in the amateur player draft, than we are to a World Series appearance.   This fancy formula doesn't tell us anything new, right?

Well, let's look at just the ten teams that are projected to make the playoffs this year and what their performances have been like, looking at runs scored and runs allowed;

ATL  619-486

STL  688-541

PIT  556-516

CIN  626-525

LAD  586-511

BOS  757-595

TAM  612-574

DET  729-572

OAK  644-555

TEX  640-565

The first thing that jumps out at you is that some teams score a lot of runs (BOS, DET), yet others focus more on keeping the opponent from doing so (ATL, LAD, PIT).   Ideally, you would like to be strong on both sides of the equation (like DET, who would be a juggernaut if they had a lock down closer), but achieving some balance between both is another path to success (like STL, who recently won a championship).

Another interesting topic is a comparison to a few teams (TAM, OAK and PIT) who used a "model of success" similar to the one that Sandy is using (pitching heavy, an offensive philosophy that favors on base percentage and an overall focus on developing and trading for talent, as opposed to relying just on free agency).   Those three teams' collective average for our equation is 604 runs scored and 548 runs allowed, which equates to an expected winning percentage of 0.548 or a record of 89-73, which would be a wild card contender in any season.

Taking this a step further, the collective "averages" for the ten listed teams would be 646 runs scored and 544 runs allowed, which equates to an expected winning percentage of 0.585 or a record of 95-67, also known as a championship contender.

Since you have to learn to walk before you can run, let's compare the 2013 Mets to the first group (wild card contenders).   Currently, they would be short by 40 runs scored (0.28 runs per game), and they have allowed 69 runs too many (0.49 runs per game).  Clearly, there is much work to be done on both sides of the equation!

However, modest improvements in both runs scored (adding two more "competent" bats to the lineup) and runs allowed (the continued improvement in our young pitching staff, plus adding some talent to the bullpen and emphasizing better defense) can have a dramatic impact.   Look at the progress the Pittsburgh Pirates have made in the past few seasons, by focusing on pitching, defense and maximizing offensive chances (i.e. on base percentage).  They have transitioned from perennial doormats, to a serious playoff contender now and in the future.

Taking it one step further, Citi Field is geared towards run suppression, so emphasizing pitching, defense and on base percentage is the most efficient way to address runs scored AND runs allowed.  I hope that Sandy sees things the same way and evaluates all of the Mets' off season moves with this common goal in mind.

If done properly, I don't see any reason why the 2014 Mets cannot follow in the 2013 Pirates' footsteps.

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