Thomas Brennan wrote me last night
and said that, if the Mets won on Friday, they would be on pace to win 91
games. Let’s take a look at what kind of team we currently have that has got us
to this level of excellence.
The Mets are tied
for the 12th best record in the league.
The Mets are the 7th
best record in the National League
The Mets are one
game away from the second playoff spot.
While…at the same time…
The Mets rank 26th
in team batting (.229)
The Mets rank 25th
in team OBP (.299)
The Mets rank 28th
in team slugging (.344)
The Mets rank 26th
in team OBP (.644)
The Mets rank 1st
in strikeouts (150)
The Mets rank 24th
in team ERA (4.33)
The Mets rank 22nd
in team WHIP (1.34)
The Mets pitchers
rank 18th in producing strikeouts (115/139.1)
The Mets top hitter
(Juan Lagares) is tied for 40th
in batting average… and on the disabled list
Lagares also has
the highest ranking OBP on the team… ranked 83rd in the league.
Slugging? Again,
Lagares ranked 64th.
OPS: Lagares – 64th.
ERA: Jenrry
Mejia – 45th
WHIP: Dillon Gee – 25th
K: Mejia – 31st
I couldn’t invent a better set of statistics to support my
theory of ‘good starters, a successful middle reliever, and timely hitting’.
Game 1: 7-9 Loss – 7 hits
Game 2: 1-5 loss – 3 hits
Game 3: 2-8 loss – 7 hits
Game 4: 4-3 win – 6 hits
Game 5 6-3 win – 6 hits
Game 6: 1-2 loss – 4-hits
Game 7: 4-0 win – 9 hits
Game 8: 3-4 loss – 6 hits
Game 9: 6-4 win – 9 hits
Game 10: 4-5 loss – 10 hits
Game 11: 7-6 win – 11 hits
Game 12: 2-14 loss – 6 hits
Game 13: 7-3 win – 13 hits
Game 14 – 9-0 win – 12 hits
Game 15 – 5-2 win – 10 hits
So, the
Mets are 6-1 in games they produce nine or more hits per game.
They
also have produced nine or more hits per game in six of the last seven games
they have played.
One
more thing… the Mets are 2-3 in one run games. A little luck here, a little
luck there…
You can’t
change the dismal way this team played the first six games, but, let them
produce 9 hits per game in the next six games, coupled with a 4-2 record, and
then there’s something concrete to build on.
For now…
Use your healthy
starters after your day off… Niese, Wheeler, Gee
Make sure one of your
long relievers (Matsuzaka, Torres) are fresh when Wheeler (pitch count issues),
Colon (back spasms), and Mejia (blister) pitch.
Go with the hot bats
until Chris Young returns next Wednesday.
Kirk
Nieuwenhus had a nice debut
but you might want to consider keeping Andrew
Brown in the lineup for
the next series.
Make sure Anthony Recker gets equal bats
with Travis d’Arnaud.
I hate to throw in a
negative, but I really don’t care who you play at first base anymore. Knock
yourself out.
8 comments:
Ike Davis should go to AAA when Chris Young returns. You don't need 3 first basemen. You do need 5 outfielders.
Sending him there does several things:
1. Gives Duda even more confidence that the job is his
2. Gives Davis a chance to play every day and get into a groove (sorry, Mr. Dykstra)
3. Builds up Davis' trade value
4. Opens up Duda as a trade possibility
5. Gives you a Plan B if Duda reverts to form
Having Davis on the roster now accomplishes none of these positive benefits. It's only a distraction (like the Jets had with both Smith and Sanchez around all of last year).
It took all of one additional game for Kirk Nieuwenhuis to show what he's really like -- 2 strikeouts and an O-fer at the plate. When Juan Lagares returns he's likely the odd man out unless they haven't done anything with the Davis situation yet.
Ever since the Alderson era began the team's biggest problem has been scoring runs and they have done nothing to address it (well, they did throw away $60 million on Jason Granderson -- or is it Curtis Bay?)
Having Kirk was like hitting the lottery in the first game...every once in a while, you win. That was his win game. The mistake that is made is to think that is more than an aberration. Over late 2012 and 2013, Kirk had a stretch on and off with the Mets where he went 9 for 90 with 40 K's. Is Wednesday's 3 for 4 an indicator that the 9 for 90 days are long gone for Kirk, or just a positive performance among what would be a lot of subsequent mediocre-to-bad performances? I'd lean towards him generating the latter and being disappointed at his performance.
I know there are 40 man roster issues, but I'd have recalled Eric Campbell and not Kirk. Eric had a .490 on base % after July last year, a great spring training, and a great AAA start (with 16 runs and 11 RBIs in 13 games) - AND has a fine low strikeout ratio, whereas Kirk just contributes to that Met strikeout malaise.
What Kirk needs is to go to AAA and tear it up for a long streatch to earn his way to the bigs and show he belongs...he keeps getting brought up despite spotty minor league performance.
In any event, with Chris Young back, the first 4 OF's should be Grandy, Young, EY, and Brown, and Kirk only as the 5th.
On the subjuect of Ike, man, if Ike went down, I'd feel horrible for Dykstra, who despite somewhat sporadic playing time this year (which usually adversely affects players) has gotten on base 20 of 34 times anyway. The only break this guy has caught is breaking his leg in winter ball when had that not occurred, he would surely have gotten some time at 1B in the spring to strut his stuff while the Twin D's nursed leg injuries.
But I think your concept of giving Ike a steady everyday diet of playing time in AAA makes sense. Give Duda a real 2014 chance (vs. righties, with Satin or Brown vs. lefties) at first, to see if he can possibly become Boog Powell there. Sometimes, guys do blossom. If not, dump him, then put Ike there (or even possibly Dykstra, who would get on base there at least) - or Campbell, who would do just fine there.
Thomas -
I have to ask you a question... have you ever seen Alan Dykstra play baseball?
Ahh, the prosecutor asks the right question....no, I have never seen Allan play. i am speculating based purely on stats here.
My guess is you will say that stats are only one indicator, and someone can exceed those stats or fall short, and that in your view and that of others, Dykstra falls short.
My own analysis of stats will always leave some blanks, and I hope others can fill in those blanks.
For the moment, at least, 1B is a much less pressing issue to the team than is SS. Here's hoping Sandy Alderson finally pulls the trigger on a deal since we have 11 starting pitchers for 2015 (including Dice-K, Hefner and Harvey), yet only five slots in the rotation.
That Adam Smith
I am willing to live with whomever they decide to play at 1B (at least vs righties) this season (though I would have been kinda happy to have seen them give Flores a 1B mitt this spring). There are enough internal options there to at least give a series of guys 4-6 week looks to decide if they might be the guy going forward.
SS is still my concern, and I think that they either need to decide that they'll live with Flores there, or else make a deal by the deadline (notice I'm ignoring the elephant in Boras' room.) The interesting question is whether they think they have a shot to remain competitive into the summer this season - if yes, then they need to make a move sooner than later.
Every other GM in baseball knows that the main thing the Mets need is a productive shortstop.
In other words, it is going to cost the Mets more than they receive, which is fine, but just don't expect Alderson to steal away somebody here.
Me?
I would go revisit the Franklin situation. I can't see him working out as an outfielder. Offer Davis AND Flores... or Davis AND deGrom....
Either trade option is good with me, Mack
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