5/1/14

Morning Report – May 1 – Priorities, Trades, Wilmer Flores



Coming Up Today:

      10 am -  Christopher Soto - SABR Talk: Team Defense Playing Big Role in Niese and Gee's Improvement

      12 noon – Reese Kaplan - Do Something Part Two -- Top Shelf Prize Time

       2 pm - Stephen Guilbert - 2014 Mets Hitters by OBP

       4 pm - Top 10 RHP in 2014 MLB Draft - Updated 4-28-14

      6 pm – Jacob Gatewood, Derek Fisher, Austin Cousino, Elliot Cary


Well, the wife and I went to eat at our local Greek restaurant and I left my laptop in the back seat of my car… with the car unlocked. Yep… gone, and with it all the research I have done for years on the players in the upcoming draft plus the history of the mock drafts I had on an excel sheet.

Many of the writers know that there is some stuff (like the 3pm and 6pm post listed above) I have already scheduled into the site, so you will see some draft ‘stuff’ leading up to those three days, but it will be far less than I had planned.

Shit happens, right?


Reese asked -

Which is the higher priority -- outfielders or shortstop? In general the the former are easier to find and we've been going on something like 300 ABs of .200 hitting from Ruben Tejada. If you're going to make a deal, I'd prefer it would be for Chris Owings or Nick Franklin or one of Cleveland's shortstops.

      Mack – My opinion is just that…

I think that if you have multiple issues on the table and one can be addressed, you do so as soon as can be accomplished.

I can’t imagine the Mets saying ‘I’m not going to worry about a back-end reliever or a new bat in the outfield until I solve this shortstop situation. It simply doesn’t work that way.

I think that Alderson and Company are redefining on paper the new Mets template. You’ve got a team that currently has the 6th best record in the league and it doesn’t seem to ever generate enough hits to win half the games it currently is winning. Five of their supposed starters are hitting between .221 and .136. Did I say the 6th best record in baseball?

And technically, they aren’t mowing down everyone with pitching either. Team wise, they rank only 12th in ERA and 13th in WHIP.

What they are doing is scoring at least one more run than their opponent which, in the short range, has been the answer. I mean, any time your win-loss record is identical to the Yankees is a good thing, right?

Obviously, there is no reason right now to upset the apple cart, but shortstop, back-end reliever, and real time outfield bat are still both the short and long term goals here.

This new template must include a plan to finish the regular season in the playoffs, so I wouldn’t look for the annual selloff of players like Bartolo Colon and Chris Young. Neither has blown us away, but they are each a piece of this current team that is hitting on most of their cylinders.
You have identified four excellent shortstop targets. I have identified Joc Peterson for the outfield. I expect that work is being done in the back rooms on both positions; however, I don’t think the front office will make any moves until June earliest.


Robb then asked –

What (who) would you trade for peterson? for ownings? none of this second tier prospect bs

Mack – You are correct Robb. You are not going to get a top shelf prospect for a Class B out of your system.

Me? Well, first I have to decide the six (five + injury/TJS replacement starter) I want to keep in the rotation in 2015. I’m not like some here that want to trade off Niese and/or Gee. They both are the best two pitchers the Mets have right now.

After that, I keep Harvey, Wheeler, and Syndergaard based on pedigree alone.

I then have to pick one from Colon, Mejia, Hefner, Montero, Verrett, and deGrom.

No matter how much Mets fans like deGrom, he’s not top shelf. And the only top shelf pitcher left here is Montero.
Sorry, but you can’t have everyone. You’re not going to trade your only prospect left handed starter (Steven Matz), so it’s back to either Wheeler or Montero.


Since we are on the subject of shortstop, I do want to go back to Wilmer Flores again.

      It does look like the ‘slow start’ is over and he’s hitting again. His AAA season average is up to .256 after going .282 in his last 10 games. More importantly, he’s playing decent shortstop. Well… at least it can be said he’s not embarrassing himself out there.

      What it still comes down to is whether or not he’s ever going to be given a proper shot to take the job away from Ruben Tejada and my guess is no. I can’t think of a worse time any ballplayer had on this team than Tejada has had since last season’s all-star break, and yet he remains the permanent replacement for Jose Reyes.

      We knew by the end of last season that there was nothing more Flores needed to do in the minors and, now that he’s playing his old position with some degree of success, the Mets are still willing to leave the job in Queens with someone that will never have the hitting potential Flores has.


      My guess is you need to get used to having Tejada around and the future of Flores is either the Mets bench or a throw-in as part of a trade for a reliever or outfielder.

11 comments:

Unknown said...

Do you guys think Plawecki is a tier 1 or 2 as far as a trade candidate to this point? I still think he is a 2 on the verge of a 1.
And same question for Flores, I believe he is a 1 if he is in his original position of 3rd base.

Tom Brennan said...

I hope your guess is to have Tejada still here - but hopefully it is only until they can trade for Tulo.

The question I have is whether the current thinking is Montero is superior going forward vs. Mejia. Is Mejia, based on performance, moving to top shelf? I think his next 4-5 starts tell the tale. He still looks to me like he's got some Pedro Martinez in him. 31 K's in 28 innings are a sign of potential dominance.

Two things when it comes to the hitting: first, there may be a lot of dismal averages in the lineup, but one of the good ones (Lagares) is returning. Second, the teams they play in May are much easier to hitt off of than those in April, so I see a hitting revival starting tonight and continuing throughout May. With the pitching we've had, why can't we be 32-23 going into June? Without trades up to that point.

Then do real deals to get us to stay in playoff contention. I want to see Harvey healthy long term, and not risk an early return, but it would be a trip if they are in contention in September and he is able to then come back.

Unknown said...

And do u guys think a Flores and Plawecki for Joc Pedersen deal is a fair one?
I know these type of trades don't normally happen, but I believe it helps both teams.

Mack Ade said...

John -

I have tomorrow morning's report pretty well planned out... I'll give you my spin on your two questions in Wednesday's report

Mack Ade said...

32-23? Ha. Didn't take you long :)

Thomas, I've been doing this for quite some time and I have learned not to get excited or depressed regarding small samples. 20 at bats do not make a shortstop and we won't know if keeping Tejada on short is correct until he's left there for the entire season (at least)

I have no idea what Montero will be like (yet) as a major league pitcher. I have a fair idea what Mejia is (it will be interesting to see if he bounces right back after that last one horrible inning). We all know that Montero is like an already cooked soup just being kept on simmer. It will burn away someday if you just leave it there.

Re: Tulo... someone yesterday called him the Babe Ruth of Colorado... what in the hell would that cost the team?

Tom Brennan said...

One more thought about hitter-unfriendly Citifield, and its draining effect on our hitters, as I go off on another tangent. Mets hitting .259 on road, 4 points better than Colorado's .255 on road.

At home? Colorado .346, Mets .192....a 154 point differential.

Eye-opening.

Anonymous said...

@Tom

I think that has more to do with the brutally cold weather so far in the Northeast.

Road Trips so far this Year:
Atlanta, GA
Anaheim, CA
Phoneix, AZ

Away Games Runs Scored: 47 in 9 games (5.2 runs/game)
Avg Game Time Temp: 71 degrees

Home Games Runs Scored: 46 in 15 games (3.1 runs/game)
Avg Game Time Temp: 46 degrees

Mack Ade said...

Thomas - is there a BA stat for the combined opponents so far this season in CitiField?

'Mad Dog' may be right (I never heard him before and he's growing on me...). The Mets are not going to keep winning ballgames they don't hit well in. There will be bad outings from this staff, just like there is on any team.

Take one game at a time... score one more run than they do... and don't over-analyze the results... oh yeah, one very important thing... don't check out what the other teams are doing in the National League. It's way to early to worry about that. Total tunnel vision here.

Robb said...

Im less concerned about OF then shortstop, I also dont think Peterson is as good as he's being made out to be. the dessert inflates offensive production and era, so what Montero has done is far more impressive then Peterson on a 1-1 ratio.

I would focus on the harder to acquire asset of shortstop. Left handed pitching and a good shortstop seem to be the hardest assets in baseball to produce. I mean a no 2 starter lefty and a proper hit and field shortstop thats above average in both.

Palwecki has potential to turn into a top tier prospect bc there are so few catching prospects. Flores has most value to a team in need of a hit first 3rd baseman. (of which there are few)

I would trade montero and palwecki for Owings, but not for peterson. both prospects will be top 100 at mid season if monetro isnt up and outside of addison russell or buxton there really is no position prospect i would consider using thor to get. chips are chips.

I truly believe your best asset at the end of this year will be Gee. prime years, proven track record, controllable, cheap, healthy and probably willing to sign a team friendly deal. not james shields but younger and producing.

Tom Brennan said...

Hey Mack
I do get ahead of myself sometimes. And it is hard to make a case to dump any reliever right now (yes, Valverde will probably kill us at a bad moment soon, but it all is kind of working right now) so Montero will have to wait for now. He won't start without a trade or injury, so relief will be it for now. Of course, that bullpen meltdown could happen in Coors this weekend. But in the interests of Super 2, a call up would more likely be a Black, Carreno, or Thornton right now.

Good point on weather, Chris. Exciting that Coors Field temperature wise will be moderate to summer-like this weekend. Bats should revive. Just as long as they are Mets, and not Rockies, bats.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

That's your job here. You're the best comments guy we have. You and Herb make sure we all know what's going out there every night.

I agree with you on (right now) leaving the current 25-man alone. They REALLY seem to like playing with each other and pick each other up when something goes bad.

Most of the .150-.175 hitters are above .200... it's slowing coming around.