5/17/14

Reese Kaplan - Was Signing David Wrong?

Saying anything negative about David Wright is tantamount to spitting on the flag and declaring apple pie a sacrilege. He’s a homegrown talent, arguably the top offensive force ever to come up through the Mets farm system.  That he was the result of a supplemental pick received for Mike Hampton’s departure for the better school systems (and pitching hell) of Colorado makes it that much sweeter.  When his team friendly contract was expiring at the end of 2012 the nearly universal exhortation from the fan base was to sign him at any cost.  Not only is he the face of the franchise, but he has also recently been voted the face of major league baseball.

At times I felt I was the lone voice advocating parting ways with David Wright.  What I observed was his declining production over the past few years of his deal, but his past accomplishments would surely push his new guaranteed salary into heretofore unseen territories for a Mets batter.  Sure, Johann Santana got his back loaded deal that everyone similarly insisted was an absolute necessity.  No hitter withstanding, he missed about as much time as a Met than he played and his contract became one of several financial albatrosses that crippled the team’s ability to field a competitive roster. 

From 2005 to 2008 he was indisputably one of the top ten players in all of baseball.  During that four year period he averaged a slash line of .311/30/115 with 23 SBs and Gold Glove defense.  Wow!  No one could argue with that kind of production and if that’s what the team was going to be getting I’d be leading the charge to get him to sign on the dotted line.

Then in 2009 CitiField happened.  We all know how quickly Wright crumbled.  His stats for that season were highly respectable when it came to batting average -- .307 – but his power vanished.  He slugged but 10 HRs and 72 RBIs over the course of the full season.  There was one red flag, though – his strikeouts jumped dramatically to 140. 

The following year looked like he shook off some of the woes from 2009 and delivered a career low .283 average, but did provide 29 HRs and 103 RBIs to go along with 19 SBs.  All was right with the world again…or was it?  Those strikeout problems got even worse with 161 Ks tallied over the course of the season.

2011 saw Wright miss about 25% of his season to injury.  His 14 HRs and 61 RBIs were not all that impressive, particularly when his average dipped to just .254.  Some of that decline can be written off to playing through pain, but it was still a disturbing downward trend.

2012 was the make or break season for David Wright’s future in Queens.  As many players do in a contract year, he delivered.  It wasn’t classic early David Wright, but 21 HRs, 93 RBIs, 15 SBs and a .306 average were certainly more than respectable.  It was what you’d expect from a star player but still a significant drop-off from his 2005-2008 period. 

Now the reality of baseball is that all contracts (with the exception of locking up young players before hitting free agency) are an exercise in paying for past accomplishments.  However, baseball is also a business and before making a decision on David Wright’s ultimate salary offer the front office had to decide whether or not he was likely to rebound, remain consistent or decline in his post age-30 seasons. 

You must also consider the climate among the fans at the time.  Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins came in to great fanfare about righting the listing ship left by Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel.  The Mets were in the midst of their Madoff financial woes and the media seemingly daily recited the condemnations about them being too broke or too cheap to do what was necessary to make the team competitive. 

Eventually a decision was made to ensure David Wright would be the Mets version of Derek Jeter, a team member for life.  The 8 year contract extension of $138 million covered the period of 2013 through 2020 when Wright was likely to go on his Chipper/Rivera/Jeter retirement tour.  In total value it was the largest deal they’d ever offered (though Santana’s nearly $23 million per year for 6 years was decidedly more costly).  At an annual average investment of over $17 million per season, it would appear that Wright indeed took something of a hometown discount in order to remain with the Mets.  His contract included public appearance and charitable contribution clauses, so it was as much about image as it was about ability.  That he also deferred some of the money interest-free also was music to the cash-poor Mets’ ears.

What did the Mets get for their sizeable investment?  Well, in 2013 Wright posted a rather embarrassing 18 HRs and 58 RBIs while hitting .307 and again missing a large number of ABs due to injury.  This season he’s off to a .283 start with 2 HRs and 25 RBIs through 41 games.   He’s on pace for close to 100 RBIs once again but unfortunately another low HR total more reminiscent of a Daniel Murphy than the face of the franchise. 

Another way they could have gone at the end of 2012 was to trade David Wright to accomplish two major goals – bringing in an influx of young talent to address the myriad of problems that existed in the outfield, at shortstop and in the bullpen – and freeing up $17 million per year to put towards multiple mid-tier free agent contracts like those given to Marlon Byrd and Mike Morse.  Rolling the dice on unproven youngsters is always a crap shoot, but there was no guarantee that Wright would continue to perform at his formerly high level of production.  Also in the pipeline you had some seemingly respectable hitters like Zach Lutz and Wilmer Flores plus Daniel Murphy (whose natural position was 3B) who could have stepped into the hot corner. 


Bear in mind that more 10-17 HR/60-80 RBI type seasons in the future are going to hamstring the spending as he would likely become untradeable.  So the question in 20-20 hindsight is did the Mets make a smart move or a panic move investing this much money into a player whose health and production have been in decline since 2008?   

14 comments:

Ernest Dove said...

I don't know...i guess I'm one of those guys who will defend the captain to the end.........
Its pretty much public knowledge at this point that he continues to press too much because everyone hitting behind him is terrible. .....
If Grandy, CY and Duda were all on pace for 20+ homers, and hitting .250+, I bet Wright's numbers would be a lot stronger right now.

Reese Kaplan said...

But there's no denying the fact his numbers have been in decline since 2008...

He plays hard, is a model baseball citizen both on and off the field, and still delivers above average production. The rhetorical question is whether or not he could have accelerated the rebuilding effort had he been traded and the money saved pumped into above-slot draft picks or free agents at other positions.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Good points, but read my screenname and you can guess my opinion.

blastingzone said...

Signing David Wright to a long term contract at age 30 was not the smartest thing the Wilpons have
done and that's saying a lot! I love david but they will be paying him 17 million a year till age 38 and
with his best days long behind him if their not already long behind him!!

Michael S. said...

Tough call. At the time the rumblings were that the Rox were very interested and I was hoping for a Wright for Arenado and Pomeranz deal.

Mack Ade said...

Wright is the face of the team in this decade.

Not signing him, after letting Reyes go, would have been terminal cancer.

Bill Metsiac said...

Interesting that many Mets fans who wanted the team to outbid the Marlins to keep Jose (injury-prone, currently around the Mendoza line with a sub-.300 OBA), now are critical of the decision to give Wright his deal. Classic case of "cheap if you don't/dumb if you do"?

Stubby said...

There is just nothing about the Mets that you like, apparently. And I have to keep asking myself why you don't just go find another team. Tear somebody else apart and leave the Mets alone. If you know something is as offensive as spitting on the flag, why the hell would you go ahead and do that in front of war vets? Have you no shame? At long last, Reese, have you no decency? The Mets looked at Wright and Reyes and had to make decisions on both of them--business decisions--weighing a lot of different factors. I happen to think they called them both right. As Bill points out, Reyes has always been injury prone, he's a pain in the butt, he's not a team guy. Very good player (when he wants to be, which is usually in his walk year). Great? Not even close. The Mets were willing to make a competitive offer to Jose, but the Marlins were willing to overpay. End of story (and good riddance to bad rubbish). Wright is a Great player. He's this generation's Tom Seaver. He should never, ever, ever be anything but a Met. He's a team guy. He gives you 200% every game. If he's in a different lineup and a different ballpark, he's probably got Hall of Fame numbers. Not to mention that we've only seen one year of Wright under this contract. Let's say he finishes 2014 with 45 home runs and 130 RBI's. Are you going to apologize and admit you were wrong? I very much doubt it. That he signed for far less than he could/would have gotten on the open market is a cherry on top of a very sweet sundae. Stop sprinkling your bird droppings on Mets fans' dessert. How's C.C. Sabathia working out for the Yanks? I bet you'd have loved the Mets to get him instead of the Yankees back then. Go rain on a Yankee parade and leave the Mets alone.

Michael S. said...

They had to keep him.

Reese Kaplan said...

First of all Stubby, I didn't advocate spitting on the flag. I was drawing an analogy with regard to the level of respect David Wright gets from Mets fans.

Second, everyone is entitled to an opinion. Sometimes people agree, sometimes they disagree. I've been a Mets fan since a child in the late 1960s. I've seen better teams and I've seen worse teams. What gets to me is when there are ways to improve the team easily (such as putting the best players on the field instead of leaving them on the bench) yet the team doesn't do them.

Third, you are flat out wrong about me not apologizing. I was on the "Why bother with Marlon Byrd?" bandwagon in spring training of 2013 and ate crow willingly when he proved me wrong. I would like nothing better than to see a return to even the 2010 or 2012 version of David Wright. I hope he does it. I really do. However, numbers don't lie and they have simply not been very good since 2008 compared to the lofty standard he'd set for himself.

Tom Brennan said...

At the risk of beating a dead horse, to paraphrase former gubernatorial hopefully Jimmy MacMillan, "the fences are too damned deep." Davis should have spoken up to block the Wilpons from the field dimension stupidity, as David knew Flushing wind currents, lack of ball carry, and those two factors plus proposed field depth and fence height (and lousy protection from players around him) kills his power in Citi. He should have said he'd not stay if they built it foolishly that way. An outspoken guy like Reggie Jackson would have.

I know with Wright he only has 2 HR in 40+ games, and that includes road games, so it is not all Citi fences, but put him the last several years in Philly or Baltimore and see how many more HRs he has. Fix the main problem (the fences are still too deep for this park and the way the ball carries) and then see what hitting problems remain, not just for Wright, but for Grandy, Duda, and others.

You might just find Wright's contract was a bargain.

Let's say the fences were moved in again last winter by 8 feet all around at $XXX. Let's say Mets have 12 more HR at home already. I think more fans come out to see a less impotent team, and the ticket sales pay for any renovation in one year...or less. And slugging free agents don't have to be bribed with overly large contracts to come here and struggle (i.e., Grandy) and get booed. If 4 or 5 of Grandy's balls carried out, all his #'s look OK, the boos subside, all is good.

Tom Brennan said...

Let me add one more thing. The heading of this column could have said "What is Wrong with Wright?" If since Day 1 the Citi fences were 8 feet more shallow than they are right now, instead of the Canyon of the first few years and the unfair shorter dimensions since then, the answer to that heading would be "Very Little, Actually", Wright would likely have had 25 more HR, 25 more doubles - at a minimum - since this park was built - and his #'s would not be bad. It's the Park #1. One can then blame the players around him, but he'd have had more protection in the line up from them too - as bad, for instance, as Bay was, put him in the dimensions I propose and he'd perhaps have done significantly better.

Those fence-induced dead ball era stats depress attendance year after year, and attendance is the cash generator that emboldens to spend big bucks on the right free agents, instead of saying "that's not in our budget."

If any of us developed amnesia and could not remember who we rooted for, and we had to pick between the Rockies and Mets, most might pick the Rockies. Why? Because watching robust hitting is delightful. Move the fences in 8-10 more feet...see what happens.

If Citi fences were what I propose since Day 1, Wright is on his way to the Hall of Fame. That'll sell lots of tickets years from now too - and give us fond memories, instead of mixed ones.

Unknown said...

Hahaha if you wanna call something embarrassing, it's this article, not D-Wright. In regards to Wright's "crumbling", since his injury-laden 2011 (in which he played half of the time with a broken back) he's just improved despite you citing only HRs, AVG, and RBIs as stats, which obviously doesn't tell the whole story. And I'm not saying this just because it's David Wright, but because the logic behind this entire article is flawed. You can't base an opinion of a player off of three statistical categories, and anyone who does doesn't deserve to be in a position to spread said opinion.

Wright's 2012 was a great bounce back year that saw him reach superstar levels again, as his strikeout rate dropped to the lowest it's been since 2008, he posted the third highest walk rate of his entire career, put up another .300+ batting year and was one of the best players in the game. Wright in that year had the fifth highest WAR in baseball, right behind Ryan Braun (who was probably still being propelled by PEDs) and in front of Chase Headly, Yadier Molina, Andrew McCutchen and Miguel Cabrera. So, in 2012, Wright was a more valuable player than one of the top ten greatest hitters ever and two-time AL MVP (Miggy) and the 2013 NL MVP (Cutch.) Wright was also top 15 in OPS and wRC+, showing again that he was elite in every sense of the word.

What's even funny is that Wright's "embarrassing" 2013 was just an improvement on his still-fantastic 2012 season. Despite missing time, Wright still posted the 13th highest WAR in all of baseball, and if he had played more that number could've been 7+ again, giving him at least a Top 6 ranking in all of the league. He was also 34th in all of baseball in SBs with 17 and was only caught a measly 3 times, yet could've had at least 20 (making him tied for 26th) had he not been shut down because the season was over so not point in risking further injury. His homers were down (once again, could've had 20+ had he actually played) but home runs are down in the entire league. There were three NL players that hit more than 27, and only 14 in total that hit 30+. His wRC+ was tied for 7th in baseball with McCutchen (but his season must've been embarrassing as well huh) and was better than Cano, Freeman, Tulo, Big Papi, Choo, and Holliday. His K rate dropped once again, and his OPS was the fifth best of his career and was tied with Encarnacion for 11th best in the game. And, with all these stats, his defense was arguably as good as it ever was and the stats back that up too. You site RBIs as a measure of a good player too, which is absurd. Should David Wright be penalized because no one around him could get on base enough to get him to, say, 80 RBIs? It's just stupid to judge a player based on average, home runs and RBIs alone.

On top of that, his contract, while big, is still about the same as what Shin Soo Choo got and is less than what Ellsbury and Cano got this winter. So despite it still being a lot of money, when you're getting a better player than Choo and Ellsbury, and maybe even as good as Cano, for less money (Cano got 100 mil more than Wright) I think the last thing you do is try to argue against it the deal.

It's easy to cherry-pick stats to back your argument, but it doesn't make what you're saying any less wrong. The stats show that Wright is still easily a top twenty player in this league, and has just trended upwards the last two seasons. Next time, I suggest doing a little more research than just HOMERZ RIBBIEZ AVERAGE.

TAJ said...

I tried to post yesterday, but for some reason it didn't go through. Semih Sirin pretty much said what I was going to say. Wright was GREAT last year and in 2012. RBI are not a good measure of individual performance (just look at Wright this year...nobody would argue he's been particularly good, but he's on pace for nearly 100 RBI)... stats like wRC+, WAR are much better measures...and show Wright was back to his elite level of performance the last 2 years. He was 5th in all of baseball in WAR in 2012-2013 behind only Trout, McCutchen, Cabrera, and Cano...and that's despite missing 2 months with injury last year. And he was 7th in wRC+. That's elite level performance one of the best in the game. Wright has not been good this year, and it's a bit concerning right now, but to say last year was embarrassing just isn't true. He was easily worth what he got paid last year and in 2012