National League Starting Pitcher Tiers - March


Tier 2: 

Tier 4: 

These are all potential stars, but with at least one large question mark looming overhead based on either health, track record, or both in some cases:
  • deGrom was an out-of-nowhere Rookie of the Year in 2014 so despite how good he was, it’s still just a 140-inning sample from a non-prospect.

Tier 7: 

Tier 10: 

Colon and Gee won’t be studs, but they will get plenty of matchups against PHI & ATL and that alone makes them worthy streamers. And if you can avoid Colon’s landmines (five starts of 6+ ER) then he could be a real asset. Three of his blowups last year were avoidable even before hindsight: at LAA, at COL, and at NYY. Lifting those three starts left him with a 3.37 ERA in 187 IP last year.

Syndergaard and Gonzales are prospects who will start 2015 on the outside looking in, but they should get opportunities in-season and they could both make an impact. Syndergaard’s ceiling is much higher

Mack - I've very surprised how conservative Fangraphs is about Jacob deGrom. Being 'just a 140 inning sample from a non-prospect' is a pretty harsh assessment for the league's Rookie of the Year.

The exact opposite would be the overly positive thoughts about Syndergaard who still hasn't pitched a single inning for the parent team.



Thomas Brennan said...

Agree, Mack.

Without looking at the full report and list, if deGrom showed any sign of weakness this spring, I'd see why there should be skepticism. But he dominated all spring, just like 2nd half 2014.

Harvey - tier 2 is clearly a high tier, but it has to assume some TJ performance impacts. So far, he just looks - BETTER THAN 2013.

So I'd put him in Tier 1, Jake in Tier 2.

Assuming there are 8 guys per tier, that's 80 guys in the top 10 tiers. 15 teams, that would make you a #5 starter in Tier 10. I'd not have Gee or Bartolo that low, as I highly doubt there are 70 NL starters better than they are.

Another list disrespecting the Mets, it seems.

Mack Ade said...

They only have ONE pitcher in Pier 1


Thomas Brennan said...

Kershaw is in a category of his own, at least until (if)Harvey can prove he belongs on same pedestal

Stephen Guilbert said...

I understand if you tier pitchers as "Kershaw then everyone else split into groups" but if we're going standard deviations off a mean, guys like Felix, Harvey (if you believe projections and return to 2013 numbers), Fernandez when he returns, and certainly Sale at least deserve to be in tier one.

Bottom line is none of this really matters. Both Harvey and deGrom are two of the better pitchers in baseball and both will probably get Cy Young votes. Their health and performance are everything for this team.

Mack's Mets © 2012