5/16/15

Mack - Flores For Tulo - Straight Up Baby (Just Joking Post)

12 comments


So, here's one your typical exchanges on Fangraphs about a possible trade of Wilmer Flores for Troy Tulowitzki:

12:28
Comment From Fister? I barely knew her!
Do you think the Mets would include Flores in a Tulo trade, or is that giving up too much?
12:29
Dave Cameron: You mean Wilmer Flores, right? Because unless they have another Flores I don’t know about who is incredibly awesome, that is most certainly not giving up too much. Wilmer Flores wouldn’t even be the best player going back in a Tulo deal.


Then I got this set to me from Eric Hudson... I think he found it on Matt Cerrone's site:







National League WAR Leaders at Shortstop


NameTeamPAHRRBIBB%K%AVGOBPSLGOffDefWAR
Zack CozartReds1135155.3 %15.0 %.320.366.5446.51.61.2
Andrelton SimmonsBraves1413166.4 %7.1 %.279.340.4501.75.21.2
Brandon CrawfordGiants12051710.8 %21.7 %.252.358.4664.13.11.2
Jhonny PeraltaCardinals1374167.3 %16.8 %.296.343.4640.94.21.0
Freddy GalvisPhillies122185.7 %10.7 %.327.372.3892.42.71.0
Adeiny HechavarriaMarlins1332193.8 %18.8 %.302.331.4211.13.40.9
Wilmer FloresMets1024104.9 %17.6 %.245.297.4150.5-0.10.4
Troy TulowitzkiRockies1082111.9 %22.2 %.298.306.481-1.1-0.20.2
Starlin CastroCubs1363202.9 %19.9 %.280.301.371-4.71.50.1
Jean SeguraBrewers1352123.7 %13.3 %.262.306.373-2.1-1.60.1
Ian DesmondNationals144275.6 %25.0 %.233.287.353-4.1-2.4-0.2
Jimmy RollinsDodgers13631110.3 %19.1 %.174.257.298-7.80.1-0.4
Jordy MercerPirates107085.6 %14.0 %.186.245.216-9.60.5-0.6


So, do I have this whole story wrong?

Are we talking the second coming of Derek Jeter here?

Steven... Thomas... Soto... help me out here.

Should we be asking more than Flores for Tulo (sic)???

12 comments:

Ernest Dove said...

........sigh........LOL............im completely over this new age fancy WAR stat........
So starlin castro has TWICE the RBISs of Wilmer(most of any ss on this list), and a higher batting average, but according to these stats he provides nothing to his team.

Well Then here's another fun fact: Bobby Bonilla has a higher WAR than kirk and Mayberry, along with Three guys on this list.

Here's another (non) stat: if Mets had A Simmons in their team they would have at least 3 more wins right now....

Do these stats take into account Murph causing Thor 18 pitches, or any of those 9 errors of Wilmer prolonging innings, increasing pitch counts and leading to one or more runs in an inning?

Thomas Brennan said...

I still think Wilmer will hit better. The absence of Wright has not helped. My big issue with Flores is not his general defense, which we knew would be below par, it is the bad throws. I can't opine on what is causing that (choking under pressure, uncoordinated, etc.), having not seen many of those errors. If choking, the question is, will he relax and stop choking, or continue to choke.

Mack Ade said...

Tonight's lineup is what the Mets dreamed of having 80% of the time in 2015... if you take out Campbell and Plawecki and insert Wright and d'Arnaud.

I'm not sure if Flores would have batted 9th, though some will tell you that translates into 1st 80% of the time.

I don't agree with Reese on all this at bat position importance... what I agree on is you need to have a decent bat following you if you want to get additional good pitches and batting directly ahead of Granderson should do that.

I don't know... no insult intended, but it seemed to me that we heard a lot less about stuff like this when the Mets were winning

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

BTW, I don't care if Flores hits better. I just want him to stop costing the team wins with his glove.

S FInch said...

Ernest,

I think your critique of WAR stems from misunderstanding.

#1) Starlin Castro is in the bottom half of SS because his offense is empty. He walks less than Wilmer (which is a feat) and has only 6 extrabase hits. He's basically the offensive equivalent of Ruben Tejada (trading walks for singles).

2) AB=above replacement-level. Bonilla hasn't been above replacement level since 1997.

3) Huh? He has been worth 1.2 WAR. Not sure I get what you are saying here.

4) That's a straw-man. Just because it has warts, doesn't make the stat useless. You site RBI in your post. How does RBI account for having more opportunities with runners in scoring position? etc. etc.

WAR is useful when applied properly. Right now, small sample sizes make defensive metrics wonky. Nevertheless WRC+ still says Wilmer is the 10th best offensive SS and the 3rd best Met regular offensively. Does that offset his defensive liabilities? WAR will likely give you a reliable answer at the end of the season.




S FInch said...

I am also a bit confused on why there has been such a microscope on Flores' defense.

His defense has been bad, yes. However, in the last 30 days we have let up the 2nd fewest runs in baseball! We are in the bottom 5 of runs scored during that same timeframe.

We are losing because our offense has been terrible. Simple as that. Flores has been part of the solution in that regard.

Reese Kaplan said...

Well, Mack, I could it as a victory that I got you to agree that spending the majority of the season hitting 8th with the pitcher behind you is not going to help you get good pitches to hit (which is particularly silly when you happen to be the guy leading the team in HRs).

Mack Ade said...

Pitchers are supposed to hit 9th.

And poor hitting 2B, SS, or catchers are supposed to hit 8th

Ernest Dove said...

All I know is that I hope the mets have more runs than the brewers after tonight's game is over.....

bob gregory said...

Really?
Flores is 9th again after his team leading homerun?
Campbell, plawecki, & DeGrom batting in front of him?
Well. ....
At least the Mets are consistent in showing the kid no love.
Collins? Alderson?
Doesn't matter who is making the decision.
Poor job.

Thomas Brennan said...

Guess what other shortstop has the same 9 errors Wilmer Flores has...Gavin Cecchini.

Amed has just 4 in 34 games, a good sign.

Thomas Brennan said...

In fairness to still-23 year old Wilmer, in his last 2 major league seasons, 363 at bats, 17 doubles, 11 homers, 40 RBIs, close to .250. My guess is he will improve from that baseline.

My question again is, is he having Steve Sax moments throwing, or is he just uncoordinated and because he is off-balance, he makes bad throws?

Last year, he had 8 errors in 32 games at SS in AAA (similar to here) and just 4 in 57 games at 2B. Just 4 in 51 starts at SS FOR THE METS last year, and just 1 in 17 games at 2nd. So he may just be pressing, and his norm may be below somewhat below average fielder, and above average bat. Which is still better than Tejada's average fielding and well below average bat.

Mack's Mets © 2012