Mike Freire - MLB Seasonal Update (67%)

OK, so the title may look a bit odd, but Major League Baseball recently passed the 67% mark for the season as it continues to move towards the month of September. As with most years, there are interesting story lines and very intriguing “potential” playoff match ups that are starting to come into focus.  Despite the fact that the best part of the baseball calendar has to compete with College and Professional Football, this year is shaping up to be something special in my opinion.

***Unless you are a Mets’ fan, but I would like to think that in a down year we can still appreciate “good baseball” while we start to plan for 2019.  At worst it will serve as a distraction from the daily mess that we normally focus on.  Since I can get a bit “wordy” at times, I will focus on both league’s playoff pictures instead of everyone’s individual record, etc.  

With that said, here we go;

American League (current standings and projected records)

1.     Boston           80-34  (.704)      114-48

2.     Houston         73-42  (.635)      103-59

3.     Cleveland      62-50  (.554)       90-72

W1.  New York      70-42  (.625)       101-61

W2.  Oakland        67-47  (.588)        95-67

***    Seattle           65-49  (.570)       92-70 

All three of the division leaders have at least a 5.5 game lead, so we may not get much drama during the Divisional races, but the Wild Card race has three teams separated by six games for two spots which should be more interesting.

On first blush, you HAVE to be impressed with the Red Sox to date!  Even though saying that makes me want to throw up, a winning percentage of .702 is ridiculous. They are on pace to win 114 games in the regular season and their recent four game sweep of their arch rival Yankees has to make them the current favorites for the title, if we are handicapping the race today.

***If you recall, the juggernaut 1986 Mets only won 108 games during the regular season, for comparison's sake.

You also have two additional AL teams that could win over 100 games in the regular season, with the defending champion Astros still looking quite formidable and the aforementioned Yankees on pace to host the Wild Card match up.  Beyond that, Oakland has seemingly come out of nowhere and they are playing very well.  Heck, even Seattle is on pace to win over 90 games and they would be out of the playoffs if things ended today.  Cleveland is fortunate they are playing in a very poor division, since they would otherwise be out of the running at this point (but all you have to do is get into the tournament).

New York would host Oakland in the Wild Card, with the winner going to Boston for the Divisional Series.  Houston would host Cleveland in the other Divisional Series and the winners would meet in the ALCS.  Houston and Boston could potentially meet in the ALCS in what could be an epic battle.

National League (current standings and projected records)

1.     Chicago          66-47  (.584)       95-67

2.    Philadelphia    64-49  (.566)       92-70

3.    Los Angeles    63-51  (.554)        90-72

W1.  Milwaukee     65-51  (.560)        91-71

W2.  Atlanta           61-49  (.555)       90-72

***There are six additional teams that are playing .500 baseball or better, that are right on Atlanta’s bumper. 

Unlike the American League, all three of the division leaders have very small leads (2.5 games maximum), so we will likely have an interesting divisional chase in the National League.  Additionally, the Wild Card race should be even crazier since all of the following teams are within seven games of the current leaders; Arizona, Colorado, St Louis, Washington, Pittsburgh and San Francisco (or in other words, NINE teams battling for two spots).

Also unlike the American League, there is quite a bit of parity in the National League and that leads to “ordinary” records.  As you can see above, Chicago has the best record in the league so far and they would be the second Wild Card team in the American League.  Or, put another way, the Yankees who are a Wild Card team in the American League (not to mention they are a country mile behind the Red Sox in the AL East), would have the best record in the National League by 4.5 games at this juncture.

Milwaukee would host Atlanta in the Wild Card, with the winner going to Chicago for the Divisional Series.  Philadelphia would host Los Angeles in the other Divisional Series and the winners would meet in the NLCS.  Picking the NLCS is much more difficult, but if we rely on the home teams for now, you could have the Phillies and Cubs going at it for a chance to get the crap kicked out of themselves in the World Series against either Boston or Houston. 

Should be very interesting, to say the least.

On a side note, since you might be curious, here’s how the Mets currently stand;

New York Mets     46-65   (.414)      67-95

***They are currently sporting the seventh worst record in all of baseball, but with a bit more effort they could “climb” as high as third or fourth worst by season’s end.  While that record sucks, at this point they should be focused on the best possible draft pick in 2019 as a part of the “rebuild” (if the Front Office allows me to say that word).

Oh and in closing, IF the Mets had simply played .500 baseball after their original 11-1 start to the year, they would currently have a record of 61-50 which would put them on pace for an 89-73 record by the end of the season.   That record would also put them in contention for both the NL East title and/or a Wild Card berth (i.e. “meaningful” games late in the year).

In short, 2018 will be remembered as a wasted opportunity for the Mets, but hopefully next year will be different (fingers crossed).  Do yourself a favor and enjoy some of the other story lines for the rest of this year.   

2019 will be here soon enough.