Reese Kaplan -- Can They Be Competitive in 2019?

Is there reason to be optimistic for 2019?  Already the Mets fans know going into the season that Yoenis Cespedes is on the shelf for half or more of the year, David Wright is once again a distant memory and other surgically repaired options – Juan Lagares, Travis d’Arnaud, T.J. Rivera, Rafael Montero, Jamie Callahan and Gavin Cecchini – are great unknowns. 

However, lately there have been some faint glimmers of hope.  Since the Cincinnati Series in early August the Mets have gone 13-9 up through the loss to the Cubs on Monday.  That’s a .591 winning percentage (a pace for 95 games over the course of an entire season).  While that may or may not be enough to win a division, it certainly would be enough to put them into the post season wildcard discussion.  More importantly, bear in mind that they have done so without contributions from any of the above-mentioned players.  So, what changed?  How did they go from total laughingstock to spoiler during this latter part of the schedule? 

There are a number of contributions they’re getting now that weren’t there earlier in the year.  Perhaps none is more important than the man we love to hate, Jason Vargas.  Over his last three starts he’s got a 2-1 record with a 2.08 ERA.  That’s not what we’d hoped to get when he was signed – it’s far better.  The truth is probably somewhere closer to his career mark of 4.30, but it’s a far sight better than the 8.00+ ERA he was sporting earlier in the season. 

Jerry Blevins was an arsonist more than a fireman earlier in the season.  Monday night notwithstanding, he’s turned his season around.  For an even longer stretch beginning on July 4^th through August 25^th Blevins was pitching to a 1.29 ERA with as many strikeouts as innings pitched.  Given that he’s the sole lefty in the bullpen, that performance is invaluable.

Somewhat under the radar is newcomer Drew Smith.  While not striking people out as prodigiously as he did in the minors, you can’t argue with a 14 game audition that thus far has resulted in a tidy 1.72 ERA. 

Another surprising contributor is Todd Frazier who was, like many of the Mets’ veteran hitters, struggling to stay above the Mendoza line for much of the season.  He’s now around his career mark, hitting with power and for this period of performance is batting .289 with 5 HRs and 15 RBIs.  That’s also better than we had expected.

Pilloried by many as being dead weight that needs to be replaced, Kevin Plawecki has also been contributing at a higher level lately as well.  He’s been nearly as good as Frazier, hitting .288 with 3 HRs and 13 RBIs.  Considering he gets fewer ABs, that’s pretty comparable.

Wilmer Flores’ power numbers have been off during this team hot streak, but he’s at .289 with a homer and 13 RBIs. 

Amed Rosario is hitting .275 for this period with 3 HRs and 14 RBIs plus has contributed 7 stolen bases.

Michael Conforto is regaining his power stroke with a .264 average, 5 HRs and 14 RBIs during this winning interval. 

What can be told about Jeff McNeil that hasn’t already been said?  If he stays healthy, there’s no reason to think that he won’t be an infield starter for the foreseeable future.

Brandon Nimmo cooled somewhat after his torrid stretch but was regaining his stroke when that DL stint resulting from yet another HBP put him on the shelf.  I think everyone agrees he is the real deal and many are eating crow having condemned Sandy Alderson for his draft choice.  (I’ll have mine with herbs de ’provence, s’il vous plait).

However, the numbers don’t even have to be printed for the pitchers Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler.  Both have been practically unhittable for a long period of time.   Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman for the most part have regained their good form

It’s not all been peaches and cream.  Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz have both struggled somewhat of late, though showing flashes of what they’re capable of doing.  The once red hot Austin Jackson is reverting to form.  The lukewarm Jose Bautista remained tepid yet inexplicably the Phillies wanted him.  And even after a torrid stretch, Jose Reyes is still flirting with .200.  Others in the bullpen have been highly forgettable. 

However, there are some bright lights on the horizon, perhaps none more so than 33 HR hitting Pete Alonso in AAA.  Sometime in May he should be in Queen learning to adapt to the next level of pitching.  His right handed power bat should help offset the extended loss of Cespedes when next season begins.  A full year of Conforto, Nimmo and Jay Bruce, while not the stuff of Gold Gloves, will certainly provide a lot of lefty leverage on the offense.  A full year of Jeff McNeil, the continued development of Amed Rosario and the big five starting rotation all suggest 2019 could be better than anticipated.

(And before anyone asks, this message was NOT funded by the Wilpon organization.)