Tom Brennan - THE ANNUAL METS' "WHAT IF"
I haven't felt the need to look at the standings lately.
We're out of it, so why bother.
We're out of it, so why bother.
I did on Monday, though, and saw the Mets were 14 games out, 13.5 games behind the Phils and 7 behind the Nationals.
Not at all like I envisioned it when spring training started.
So, what went wrong? Two things, as I see it:
# 1 is obvious:
The season-slamming depth and severity of injuries. For the second year running, the injuries have been way too frequent and severe.
Cespedes plays for about a month, and goes down with a severe injury to wipe out most of 2018 and who knows how much of 2019.
Bruce playing injured and poorly, and not out for a very extended period.
The 2 catchers go down, impacting the production from that position greatly for quite some time.
Frazier missed a somewhat extended period.
Nimmo injured a few times, although not for too long.
Thor with a finger, hand, foot and mouth set of setbacks.
Matz taking his annual prolonged injury sabbatical.
Lagares, too.
AJ Ramos blows up.
Conforto recovering from his major shoulder surgery.
TJ Rivera, roughly a .300 hitter in 2017, is slow to recover, has missed all of 2018.
Swarzak missing in action most of the year.
Vargas goes to Hamate Hamlet and has a drastically impacted 2018.
And I am sure I left some out.
All of which is cumulatively catastrophic and led to the waving of the white flag and the trade of Jeurys Familia, weakening the bullpen.
Having only a normal rate of injuries to key players and one could envision being right in the race - I'm not talking injury-free - I'm talking about not having such a drastically impactful injury barrrage. I think with GOOD health and minimal injuries, this team could have been 5 games in front right now, instead.
OK, that is # 1.
# 2 is the ongoing bewildering home field disadvantage.
Last year, I wrote an article on the Mets Home Field DISadvantage.
In it, going from memory, I noted that over a 10 year stretch, the Mets and Yanks had close to the same road record but the Mets had won drastically fewer at home, and in fact won LESS games at home than on the road over that span of time.
So how is it going this year? I just saw a tweet involving Anthony DiComo where it was noted that the Mets were 3rd in baseball in road scoring in 2018 (5.23 runs per game), but last in scoring at home (3.25).
As would be obvious, therefore, they are 24-37 this year at home, 30-32 on the road, continuing the mystifying trend of more wins on the road than at home (e.g., in 2013, 33 wins at home, 41 on the road; in 2011, 34 wins at home, 43 on the road).
So, to solve the losing problem, two things are important:
1) How to avoid injury-prone players. So, in the case of, let's say, a Cespedes, who has some injury concerns, take a pass on signing him with fingers crossed in the future. Easier said than done to get that right, but a course change is needed here.
2) SOMEONE HAS TO FIGURE OUT THIS HOME FIELD MALAISE AND HOW TO FIX IT.
Fixing # 1 and # 2 may not get the Mets into the playoffs, but it ought to have them playing meaningful September baseball for years to come.
Zach Wheeler was outstanding - again - and it increasingly appears that the Mets now have TWO aces (and an open invitation to Thor to become # 3 if he can start pitching a lot better than his average performance this year).
But he got a no-decision for his great efforts last night.
After all, the Mets can't score in Citifield, as I pointed out above, so why should anyone be surprised to see them score just 1 run in 13 innings???
"WHAT IF" Jeff McNeil wasn't given the perfunctory night off in deference to formerly great, now washed up, very lousy Jose Reyes? Maybe Zach wins the game.
McNeil has a pinch hit single and is hitting .294....he makes things happen. Maybe he goes 3 for 5 if he starts.
Reyes starts instead and goes 0 for 5 and is hitting .197 - in late August. Really?
Start McNeil every day - he did so in the minors this year just fine. Sitting him is a waste of talent.
LAST NIGHT'S WHAT IF:
Zach Wheeler was outstanding - again - and it increasingly appears that the Mets now have TWO aces (and an open invitation to Thor to become # 3 if he can start pitching a lot better than his average performance this year).
But he got a no-decision for his great efforts last night.
After all, the Mets can't score in Citifield, as I pointed out above, so why should anyone be surprised to see them score just 1 run in 13 innings???
"WHAT IF" Jeff McNeil wasn't given the perfunctory night off in deference to formerly great, now washed up, very lousy Jose Reyes? Maybe Zach wins the game.
McNeil has a pinch hit single and is hitting .294....he makes things happen. Maybe he goes 3 for 5 if he starts.
Reyes starts instead and goes 0 for 5 and is hitting .197 - in late August. Really?
Start McNeil every day - he did so in the minors this year just fine. Sitting him is a waste of talent.
13 comments:
Met philosophy:
Young hitter that demonstrates success..... make sure they get plenty of rest to stay healthy.
Young pitcher in the bullpen that demonstrates success..... have them pitch until their arm falls off.
Bob - so true.
But they defer far too much to Reyes - the only good to come out of it for McNeil is for him to show the Mets another side to his value proposition: some guys can't successfully pinch hit - it seems there is nothing he is unsuccessful at. I expect that to continue.
Well, for once Wilmer is getting steady ABs and showing he can certainly hit. That means they'll ship him out of town.
Hey Tom
your what if should have included what if we DID NOT spend any money in free agency...
I have said time and time again i would rather not spend in free agency than spend anything on replacement players... I remember reading how Bruce was a good deal at ONLY 3 years 39 Million dollars and how we stole Frazier at 2 years 16 million. (no one was happy with Swarzak but still more waste) This management team has no ideal how to construct a team therefore should not be allowed to spend any money... Now are future is hurt by players with salaries that cannot be moved...
Worse is I do look at the standing at least once a week but to see how far from the bottom we are... we are last i saw the 7th worse team... and i predict us to land closer to 10 than 4.
As bad a season as it may look we dont lose enough... face it we reside in a big market but we are a small market team... We need to hit in the draft and best way to do that is to have higher picks and more important higher draft pools...
so winning another meaningless game serves us nothing for our future...
Wheeeler pitching well is great and have the already poor bullpen lose games is a perfect recipe...
Worse thing in sport is .500 or avg... either be GREAT (not good) so you have a shot at a championship or be bad to try to be Great...
Eddie, I 100% agree - sign older guys at your own extreme risk. I'd rather have given Cespedes 2 years, $66 million than 4 years at $28 MM per year...4 years is VERY risky for aging guys.
How about Swarzak and Vargas for 1 year at $10 million, rather than 2 years $17 MM. Less risk even if more $ per year.
Better yet, develop young players. Despite Nimmo's belated success, and Conforto's mixed success, the 4 first round hitters (Nimmo, Cheech, Smith and Conforto) have been sub-par in the aggregate. Which catches up to a team.
Jake, Wheels, and Thor are way too good to let us get a really good pick next year - but if we pick 7th or 8th, we can still so all right, if we pick well. Figure out what went wrong with picks like Cheech, Smith, Reynolds, etc. and avoid the same drafting mistakes. If we do pick well next June, we have enough young guys already in the lower minors to go with a good 2019 draft to finally be on the right track.
Right now, the only hitter prospects I like above rookie ball as future major leaguers are Winaker, Alonso, and Gimenez (and Winaker has a lot more to still prove). That is sparse. Rookie article tomorrow will inspire some hope, I hope.
The home field thing feels like some kind of bad mojo. Undoubtedly brought on by the Wilpons. I do have a question though, Tom. You note the Mets’ runs per game at Citi, but how many runs are the visitors scoring? Clearly, it’s more than the Mets since we continue to have losing Home records, but I’d love to see a year by year breakdown of our scoring differentials Home and away. If you have time, of courses 😊
Adam, no time for that analysis at the moment, but that is an interesting one to look into.
Just remember that in most years prior to last year, we've had above average pitching, so the Mets manage to not score while not having to face deGrom etc.
In fact, if Mets pitchers got to pitch against Met teams over the years, this franchise might have 10 no hitters already, not just one.
Interesting weekend beginning tonight.
Season series tied at six wins each. Mets Vargas and Nationals Gio Gonzales, not to be confused with Speedy Gonzales. By rights the Nationals may have a slight edge upon first glance. But if Jason Vargas pitches like his last game out, and the Mets bats stay on course, then I think that the NY Mets have a decent chance tonight. It will be a close game. Too close to call.
Yankees and Baltimore. CC Sabathia versus Alex "Ty" Cobb with the hundred loses. Best way to attempt beating Sabathia (figuratively speaking) is to simply have your team bunt a lot. CC does not ever really enjoy coming down off the mound to field bunts. It rattles his cage and he was not built for it. Baltimore has such a new and young team overall now, that most of their team I am not even familiar with. However, everyone is playing for a starting job in 2019, so that will be their motivation. Still the advantage should go towards NYY, but in any one game miracles can happen.
Boston and Tampa Bay. Boston is clearly the best team in MLB right now. And it does not look like that will change the rest of the way. But they have their sixth starter on the mound in veteran starter Velasquez who is 7-0. He will be facing Tampa Bay's Castillo who has very few starts and wins and a 4.00 ERA. Advantage Boston.
Bob Gregory:
True posting up above.
I think that the NY Mets hitting is now looking a lot better than earlier on, post the 13-1 start to this season that is. The thought of having so many young guns in the lineup now, who are coming of age altogether, I find that very encouraging. To me the hitting side is all upside now. Just need one or two more homerun guys added in. But admittedly here, Frazier and Bruce could factor into this as well as an additional player from outside. Need to get Jay Bruce back into the very best shape of his life. he is by no means too old to do this.
The starting pitching has been pretty much there all season. I think the goal of keeping all the starters "healthy all season" has been so far very well accomplished by Manager Callaway and Coach Eiland. Kudos there to both really.
It's just the darn bullpen that is still frothing me some, and it is still going through its proverbial growing pains. But I like some of what I am seeing now with that. It's just time and patience really. Rome wasn't built over night, although its destruction did come rather quickly. Bad analogy.
Maybe begin now to think about which pitchers to send off to Winter Ball for their final tweakings. Have them ready to go come 2019 Spring Training. It would be a nice advantage for the team.
The newer guys that I am liking best for the 2019 bullpen are probably these: Drew Smith, Tyler Bashlor, Jamie Callahan (when able to), Bobby Wahl, Eric Hanhold, and maybe Dave Roseboom the big lefty. The Mets already have Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo established, as well as Jerry Blevins. I am liking Ian Krol down in the minors too some. There is potential here.
Maybe Wahl, Roseboom, Bashlor, Callahan (if he can) to Winter Ball from the bullpen. And then Justin Dunn and Franklyn Kilome from the rotation side. From numbers comes good things.
Not a lot going on at AAA 51's and AA Ponies. At AA, 3B Toffey one for four at the plate, a double. I think he could be something not too far down the road. 2B Gimenez, one for three with a triple.
Reliever Josh Torres got two strikeouts in 2 innings, for the win. His ERA now stands at 1.22.
Justin Dunn got rocked again in his start, eight earned runs in just three innings.
Not really all that impressed with either Dunn or Crismatt who goes today. Go Fish!
I still like my own idea of converting Drew Smith into a starter. And Daniel Zamora is interesting too.
Rumorville starting up again.
The latest, Arizona;s CF AJ Pollack may be on the NY Mets off season acquirement list.
My take...
AJ Pollack is a pretty good center fielder and overall batter. But he gets hurt a lot and at age 31 next season, he may become peanut brittle like some of the guys we have here now are. Watch Bruce Jay try to run in the outfield. I pass on AJ Pollack for this reason. The Mets need to learn now from their bad mistakes.
CF isn't the problem here. Power hitting is.
The Mets batting order will be without Yoenis Cespedes until like July 2019, maybe forever too. So clearly here, the shortcoming to the Mets batting order is for more power hitters.
AJ Pollack had one good power season 2015, he really is not a power hitter otherwise. We have guys here now who can pretty much already do what AJ Pollack does. So why get him?
I personally would like to see the Mets get catcher Wilson Ramos and then something in the homerun category to supplant Frazier on third base, whom to me is too hot and cold batting.
Then from the pitching side, maybe another lefty starter to supplant Steven Matz, whom to me lacks the desire and toughness to be great (almost like Kirk Nieuwenhuis did.) And then finally, maybe another lefty later inning reliever, although first, I would take a long serious look at Dave Roseboom, Ian Krol, and Daniel Zamora.
I don't know if anyone else sees this, but Daniel Zamora has amazing breaking ball. Batters are baffled facing him I have noticed. So it got me wondering, could Daniel Zamora start?
On Reese Kaplan's Recent Posting
I have to agree with you Reese, Jeff McNeil should be absolutely starting for the NY Mets from here out, preferably on second base. I personally do not really care at all what anyone else thinks or has to say regarding this either.
Then there are the recent rumors that Jay Bruce may be moving over to first base.
Bruce is like a .249 career BA guy. He has historically hit a lot of homeruns, so maybe this isn't too far fetched a thing. However, my bigger concern here is if Peter Alonso is ready come ST 2019 to play first base, I really do not want too much blocking his playing time there beyond occasional subbing when Peter needs a rest.
Sure Jay Bruce is a lefty batter with two more seasons left on his contract, and both Peter Alonso and Wilmer Flores are right handed younger batters. So theoretically speaking, choosing one righty batter and having Jay Bruce sharing a little time there at first base with that player could make some sense. But how much playing time should Jay Bruce really be getting there? Even thinking of making Jeff a utility player, is kind of a silly idea to me.
I like the combination of Rosario and McNeil up the middle because both are so awesome quick and fast, they cover a lot of middle infield ground. They run at an even pace on the base paths I have seen.
Jeff Mcneil is a pure hitter.
I have seen a few players come up from the minors who did the same thing as Jeff McNeil is doing now offensively, hitting to get on base. Then in their second and third seasons, they start adding in a little more power game and homeruns. By the fourth season, they are usually a finished product.
I think that is what Jeff McNeil did in the minors too, and in time he may do that up here on the NY Mets. He's still very young and the proverbial clay younger player. But sky is his limit.
Personally, I wouldn't mess too much with a proven player like a Jeff McNeil. Somethings in life, you just leave alone and ride the wave.
For Friday's Games, I got just two out of three games right, my bad.
Boston beat me down. I had said that they'd win and they did not. Was honestly the weirdest Red Sox game that I have seen all year. Manager Alex Cora waited way too long to pull his sixth starter Velasquez from the game. The Red Sox have one of the top three bullpens too, to consider.
Boston did not play or hit like they always do, last night. Was a very odd Red Sox game for me all around. But that ship should right itself tonight, and with a vengeance.
Today's Games...
Rick Porcello goes today, despite coming off a bad recent start for him, I think he is due. Tonight should be a much different experience for the Red Sox offensively. Tampa Bay is a really young team, sort of like Philly, so their youth and exuberance at times is not consistent or predictable. Red Sox anyway by two runs, but not necessarily a runaway like it would have been just two weeks ago.
I have to go with Zach Wheeler and the Mets today against Tanner Roark and the Nationals. But it could be a really, really close game too, because it could come down to who has the better bullpen. The relief combination of Gsellman and Lugo really is still the Mets best late inning possibility thus far. But down in the Mets minors, one of the combinations that I can see that could be stellar one day here, is Josh Torres and Gerson Bautista. "Thin and Thinner." But it could be a year off still, not 100% certain yet.
The Yankees should take the Orioles a little more easily today.
Even with Sonny Gray on the mound, I like their chances. I think Sonny has regained his confidence after being used successfully from the Yankee bullpen of recent.
The Orioles are a young team and hard to accurately always predict because of this. For the Yankees, first baseman Voit is stepping up and getting use to being a NY Yankee. The bright lights with this, do not seem to faze him at all. I think by year end, he will have supplanted Greg Bird at first base.
Close game today, one or two run victory for the Yankees. Yankees have the better bullpen and this could factor into their win.
If I do not get all three of these games correct today, I won't do this again! I'll spare you these predictions.
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