8/24/18

Tom Brennan - METS' SOFT TOSSERS - SUCCESSES AND FAILURES

(pictured above: Randy Jones)

Tom Brennan - METS' SOFT TOSSERS - SUCCESSES AND FAILURES

Once upon a time, a soft-tossing sinkerballer named Randy Jones (pictured above) showed that fastball velocity is not an absolute requirement for MLB pitching success.  

In 1974, he won 20 for the Padres and sported a league-leading 2.24 ERA.

In 1975, he won 22 games with a 2.74 ERA and won the Cy Young award.

Peoples Magazine in 1976 noted his speed (or lack thereof) as follows: "...what Jones laughingly calls his fastball travels at a dray-horse speed of 73 mph (versus Nolan Ryan’s 100.8 mph). As a result, Jones is forced to throw “junk”—those wobbly pitches that dip and curve and drive the opposition nuts. “Throw hard, damn it, throw hard,” Cincinnati batter Pete Rose once bellowed in frustration."



As a Met later in his career, of course, he was not so good: 8-18, 4.69 ERA in 169 innings.



No one I've ever heard of in the majors, other than perhaps a knuckleballer, threw that slowly.



What about Mets' soft tossers? Is drafting a soft tosser a losing strategy?  Let's consider:



For former Met Tom Glavine slo-mo was not a losing strategy. He won 305 games, including 61 as a Met late in his career, and lost 203...but he had a great Braves offense and bullpen to support him...maybe if he spent his entire career with the low offense, shaky bullpen Mets, he'd have gone 203-305 instead.



Former fireballer Bartolo Colon did quite well (44-34) in 3 recent years mesmerizing batters while pitching with the Mets at reduced speeds. The last two non-Mets seasons, at even lower speeds (86.9 MPH FB in 2018), he has swooned to 14-24.  Mezmerizing batters has its limits.



Lefty Jamie Moyer retired several years ago after a 25 year career going 269-209, 4.25 throwing slowly.  Soft can work sometimes.  As it did for Tommy John (288-231).



The 2018 Mets?



Let's start with a slow thrower success story, then move on.  

Jerry Blevins is that success story.  Despite throwing his FB at just 88.5 MPH, nearly 5 MPH below MLB average, JB's 4 years with the Mets look incredible, like this: 12-3, 2.98, 203 appearances, 127 IP, 154 Ks.  The Mets aced this acquisition.

On the failure side, the list is longer:

They currently have highly expensive slow tosser Jason Vargas, who is a disastrous 2-8, 8.10 this year.  Average 2 seam FB speed? 86.7 MPH, or 6 MPH below MLB average.  Comes in slow, goes out FAST.



Paul Sewald?  0-10, 4.70 In his career as a Met.  Paul's 4 seamer clocks in at 90.3 MPH, or 3 MPH below MLB average.  I'm sure he wishes he had that extra 3 MPH.



Tim Peterson? 90.4 MPH compared to Sewald's 90.3.  He is 2-2, 7.54 in 22.2 IP, including a painful 21 hits and 16 earned runs in his last 10 innings.  Growing pains, or the league catching up to the (relatively) slow tosser?  



PJ Conlon's sinker is at 86.5, 5 MPH below major league average.  In 7 2/3 innings, 8.22 ERA. Yeah, I know it is few innings, but in Vegas, he is 3-8, 7.02 ERA in 91 innings.  (Hint: get Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer videos and study their success.  maybe you can emulate them, PJ).

Our own erudite columnist Reese Kaplan just wrote in his weekend coverage of the Las Vegas - El Paso series that, "(Nabil) Crismatt seems to have three speeds pitching – slow, slower and slowest.  He got cleanup hitter Ty France to swing and miss at a 68 mph strike three.  First baseman Brett Nicholas lined a 67 mph pitch up the middle to plate the second run."   

Crismatt has been getting torched in AAA, and slow, slower, slowest is not working, working, working. 


Some hard throwers falter also, like Gerson Bautista, whose 47 innings in the minors and majors this year have resulted in 65 hits, 21 walks, and 4 hit batsmen.  Reese reported that an interviewee said that Bautista's slider is a work in progress and, when mastered, could be a game-changer for Gerson.

But the supreme trio, Jake (95.7), Zach (also 95.7, not to mention 6-0 in his last 7 starts), and (when healthy) Thor (97.2 MPH sinker) have done collectively very, very well with the high heat.

It seems increasingly difficult in today's game to throw at below average speeds and succeed.



My advice? 

Draft power arms.  

Only power arms.

Slow pokes may dominate in the lower minors, but tend to get hammered more as they climb the ranks.  And find it hard to stop the bleeding.  A 98 MPH fastball is, as Denzel Washington might say, The Equalizer.


Side Note: 

Kevin Plawecki was really sputtering most of this season, sadly so, since he hit well this spring and was geared for what I believe was to be a good season at the plate until the broken bone from a HBP in early April stunted his season. 

Then, in his last 5 games through Sunday (4 starts and a pinch hitting appearance), 9 runs scored, 8 RBIs, 7 hits in 15 ABs, and 4 walks. WOW WOW. Now at .241/.353/.405.

Maybe the offensive game of Plawecki, which in his career to date, to me, has been disappointing, is ready to jump up higher.  Maybe a lot higher.







14 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Tom

Crismatt was demoted back to AA yesterday.

As for Plaw, dont throw the rest of your chips in on this guy. He has disapointed in the past

Tom Brennan said...

I was VERY disappointed at the game yesterday. Homer to cut lead to one, 2 singles, none out, and Plawecki then he hits into a tailor-made double play.

Perfect time to BUNT, if anyone still knows how to, for Pete's sake.

Bashlor looked good except for the meatball he served up to Longoria.

McNeil smoked the ball his first 3 times up against Bumgarner...how impressive is that? One he was robbed of an RBI hit on.

In certain respects, I enjoyed being AT the game, but I will tell you this - on the passed ball, it was hard to tell what went on, and on the strike 3 called a ball on deGrom, you can't pick that up really, at least from where I was sitting. I prefer watching on TV, with explanations and replays. Jake was magnificent on an off day, but was done in by bad call and bad breaks.

My ticket was $9 on Stub Hub, bag of peanuts was $6.

Reese Kaplan said...

Even if Plawecki comes around with the bat he's still not major league caliber when it comes to throwing out runners.

Anonymous said...

RPieces...

Good post today. I think that a good idea for deciding who comes into the Mets late innings games from the bullpen is to maybe have the Mets batting coach make that call.

All season long same failed decisions from the Mickey and Dave twins. All season long we have had to watch debacle after debacle unfold before our eyes because obviously these two are clueless about how to run a bullpen.

Let the Mets batting coach decide who comes in from the bullpen and when. Cannot be any worse really.

Anonymous said...

On Kevin Plaw Daddy...

Say what you want, but Kevin is the only feasible catcher to bring forward into the 2019 season. He has thrown out runners this season. I can recall a throw down to first behind the batter as one earlier on this season.

Here is why else "Plaw Daddy" is the one...

Tomas Nido has not shown that he can hit for an average up on the Mets parent club, and may need another season at AAA. There is no other catcher in the Mets minors (Vegas or Binghamton) worthy of even a look. No one near ready.

Devin Mesoraco has been serviceable, but that's about it. Once and awhile Devin will connect on a pitch. Plus he's how old? He is a free agent after 2018 and there is no one on the Mets 2019 free agent list I'd want back, including him.

The best route to take for the Mets may be to try and sign either Wilson Ramos or Yasmani Grandal both free agents. Leave it at that.

Anonymous said...

I think at season end, the three wise men, the personnel director, the manager, the pitching coach, and one ball boy may all be heading to the Russian Front.

Anonymous said...

The Yankees won a game against the tough Chicago White Sox. It is rumored that Gary Sanchez is back under 350 pounds and may be back soon.

Great interview on the radio over the weekend. A doctor who knew about Aaron Judges wrist injury said that Yankee Mark Texiera had the same almost exact wrist injury. He said that it is a complicated injury involving a tendon that covers that part of the wrist. He also said that Mark was never the same after returning from this wrist injury.

But I do like the new Voit guy first baseman. Maybe he can fill Aaron's shoes?

Anonymous said...

Is there anything down under at relief pitching?

Yes. Yes there is.

My favorites are actually almost all at AA Binghamton right now. Lefty Dave Roseboom, and the very capable J. Torres and The Ryder Ryan Express. Ryan got the win last night for Binghamton. These three AA relievers and then too Gerson Bautista from AAA vegas.

Maybe all four can do the Winter Ball thing this off season?

Tom Brennan said...

4 great choices for winter ball relievers in Dave Roseboom, Joshua Torres, Ryder Ryan, and Gerson Bautista.

Also, some good ones drafted this year - check out my 8 AM article tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Redirected Attention

Topic: Childhood and Adult Alzheimers

Two different things, but having somethings in common as well.

Childhood version: Newmann-Pick Type C Disease

150,000 children and teenagers have. An accumulation of lipids leading to permanent damage in cells and tissues of the brain, peripheral nervous system, liver, movement, speaking, eating, and swallowing issues. Diagnosis by assaying cultured fibroblasts grown from a small skin biopsy. Rush University Medical Center in Chicago introduced a new drug called Hydroxypropyl-beta-cyclodextrin. It appears to be working.

I saw this all on a television show over the weekend.. They had about five case studies with children (some from the same one family) and young teenagers wrestling with this disease as well who had had it since birth. The disease progresses. The children with it were listless, exhausted, not eating, speaking or acting normally.

The new drug purportedly dissolves the cholesterol crystals and plaque attacking the children's brains, allowing these same children to behave and interact more normally and with greater ease.

Brand New Drug Chemical: Cyclodextrin for short.

If you know anyone with these type symptoms, you may want to contact Rush University in Chicago directly, or go online to read up on it. They believe that it could also benefit adults suffering from Alzheimers as well. But this is all relatively very new. So you may want to ask your own doctor too about it.

Anonymous said...

Responding to Posts

Mack:

Kevin Plawecki may not be Superman yet, but there is not a better catcher on this team or even close to being here from either AAA and AA, that is any better really.

Tomas Nido?

I just do not like his batting stance nor batting mechanics. He has not optimized his size and may not ever figure it out at this level. He could. But I will believe it when I see it.

Devin Mesoraco?

Was a nice piece for awhile. Has a truly hard time hitting for average. But at least we got rid of crybaby Harvey and his constant stay on the injured list because he never developed another true out-pitch besides his hard throwing, arm damaging fastball. Live and learn.

Jose Lobaton?

He's 35 years old in 2019 and has never hit for average. Retirement home.

Colton Plaia?

Yeah, right. Maybe in an alternate universe where everyone is a zombie? Stopped hitting well in A Ball.

Mary Tyler Moore?

No average. No homeruns. Next?

Patrick Mazeika?

Was doing pretty well until this year. Stumbled. May have suffered from injury, not certain. But because of 2018, he is a year behind schedule. Patrick still has time (he's 24) but the Mets will have to go outside the organization this off season for a three to four year deal starting catcher. It does not bode well for Mazeika.

Tom Brennan's Young Nucleus

I liked your thoughts, but I am thinking a little bit differently. My starting eight for 2019 (theoretically speaking would probably be: C A new free agent signing maybe Wilson Ramos 1B Peter Alonso 2B Andres Gimenez SS Amed Rosario 3B Jeff McNeil LF Cespedes (if can walk and run by ST) CF Brandon Nimmo RF Either Conforto, Kivlehan or a true HR new guy from outside the organization.

Here's why the above:

Peter Alonso needs to be patient, his playing will start in ST 2019. The guys ahead of him cannot hit thirty-five homeruns in two seasons let alone one. Peter needs to stay focused and watch some Keith Hernendez video (circa 1986 for learning and playing top rated MLB first base.

Andres Gimenez is chomping at the bit to play second for the Mets and he may actually be ready now. Andres can hit maybe around .275 -.300BA while grabbing 30 SB in his first season up. It's a learning curve and Andres is young but so what really. Let the kid start and play. Shortstop goes to the NY Mets new Jose Reyes, Amed Rosario. Case closed. Third base goes to probably the best and purist hitter on the Mets team right now, Jeff McNeil. He's five tool. LF is Yoenis Cespedes, if he can play come ST 2019 and the two prosthesis take. CF is Brandon Nimmo. He's the fastest and best CF the Mets have had in quite sometime. He should be able to hit 20 HR and bat for a decent average over a whole season. RF I think Jay Bruce may be damaged goods now and the hip is still bugging him it looks like when he runs.

The Mets can go outside an try to grab another HR corner outfielder, or they can try their own players out there like Michael Conforto, Patrick Kivlehan (double and HR last night again), or even Zach Borenstein. Catcher is a new player from probably the 2019 Free Agent List.

That's my eight for 2019.

Anonymous said...

Interesting:

The Mets sort of need good lefty arms added in. Beyond maybe Dave Roseboom there ain't much else really.

Mitch Hornacek (Yard Goats) lefty reliever is currently 3-3, 74 K's in just 59 innings, 2.11 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP. I wonder if he is as good as his stats indicate?

3B Will Toffey went 2 for 3 with a double in the Rumbleponies/Yard Goats loss. Justin Dunn went to 6-5 on the season.

In my opinion, I think that the Rumbleponies may have the best relief arms now in Joshua Torres, Dave Roseboom, and Ryder Ryan. I look forward to maybe seeing them come 2019 ST.

Anonymous said...

David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Juan Lagares

You have to give David Wright credit for even trying to come back. But I really don't think that the true NY Mets fans will feel slighted if he does not come back to play. It's because we all got to watch this amazing Mets third baseman for such a long time already. He and Jose Reyes were the infield glue for so many years on this team. They were sensational.

I kind of want to remember David and Jose from back then really. Sometimes, it really is time to retire. Both should now. If they want to coach here with the Mets, I hope they both do because they have insight to impart.

Juan Lagares

Hard to believe that Juan will be 30 years old himself come Opening Day 2019. He has not logged a full season since 2015. Three straight seasons of injuries and few games being played.

The NY Mets need to start looking at these things maybe a little more closely. Personally, I like outfielder Patrick Kivlehan better now for a utility outfield role in 2019, and he's three years younger than Juan.

It's time for changes here. These were three above.

Anonymous said...

The NY Yankees lost to Chisox last night. They are still looking banged up and kind of lost. I don't see the Yankees having a chance to make the WS in 2018.

Here's the teams still in it:

1. Atlanta 2. Chicago 3. Dodgers in the NL

1. Boston 2. Houston 3. Yankees or Oakland (it won't really matter which) in the AL

For every other team not mentioned above, it's all about 2019.