Tom Brennan - METS' SOFT TOSSERS - SUCCESSES AND FAILURES

(pictured above: Randy Jones)

Tom Brennan - METS' SOFT TOSSERS - SUCCESSES AND FAILURES

Once upon a time, a soft-tossing sinkerballer named Randy Jones (pictured above) showed that fastball velocity is not an absolute requirement for MLB pitching success.  

In 1974, he won 20 for the Padres and sported a league-leading 2.24 ERA.

In 1975, he won 22 games with a 2.74 ERA and won the Cy Young award.

Peoples Magazine in 1976 noted his speed (or lack thereof) as follows: "...what Jones laughingly calls his fastball travels at a dray-horse speed of 73 mph (versus Nolan Ryan’s 100.8 mph). As a result, Jones is forced to throw “junk”—those wobbly pitches that dip and curve and drive the opposition nuts. “Throw hard, damn it, throw hard,” Cincinnati batter Pete Rose once bellowed in frustration."

As a Met later in his career, of course, he was not so good: 8-18, 4.69 ERA in 169 innings.

No one I've ever heard of in the majors, other than perhaps a knuckleballer, threw that slowly.

What about Mets' soft tossers? Is drafting a soft tosser a losing strategy?  Let's consider:

For former Met Tom Glavine slo-mo was not a losing strategy. He won 305 games, including 61 as a Met late in his career, and lost 203...but he had a great Braves offense and bullpen to support him...maybe if he spent his entire career with the low offense, shaky bullpen Mets, he'd have gone 203-305 instead.

Former fireballer Bartolo Colon did quite well (44-34) in 3 recent years mesmerizing batters while pitching with the Mets at reduced speeds. The last two non-Mets seasons, at even lower speeds (86.9 MPH FB in 2018), he has swooned to 14-24.  Mezmerizing batters has its limits.

Lefty Jamie Moyer retired several years ago after a 25 year career going 269-209, 4.25 throwing slowly.  Soft can work sometimes.  As it did for Tommy John (288-231).

The 2018 Mets?

Let's start with a slow thrower success story, then move on.  

Jerry Blevins is that success story.  Despite throwing his FB at just 88.5 MPH, nearly 5 MPH below MLB average, JB's 4 years with the Mets look incredible, like this: 12-3, 2.98, 203 appearances, 127 IP, 154 Ks.  The Mets aced this acquisition.

On the failure side, the list is longer:

They currently have highly expensive slow tosser Jason Vargas, who is a disastrous 2-8, 8.10 this year.  Average 2 seam FB speed? 86.7 MPH, or 6 MPH below MLB average.  Comes in slow, goes out FAST.

Paul Sewald?  0-10, 4.70 In his career as a Met.  Paul's 4 seamer clocks in at 90.3 MPH, or 3 MPH below MLB average.  I'm sure he wishes he had that extra 3 MPH.

Tim Peterson? 90.4 MPH compared to Sewald's 90.3.  He is 2-2, 7.54 in 22.2 IP, including a painful 21 hits and 16 earned runs in his last 10 innings.  Growing pains, or the league catching up to the (relatively) slow tosser?  

PJ Conlon's sinker is at 86.5, 5 MPH below major league average.  In 7 2/3 innings, 8.22 ERA. Yeah, I know it is few innings, but in Vegas, he is 3-8, 7.02 ERA in 91 innings.  (Hint: get Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer videos and study their success.  maybe you can emulate them, PJ).

Our own erudite columnist Reese Kaplan just wrote in his weekend coverage of the Las Vegas - El Paso series that, "(Nabil) Crismatt seems to have three speeds pitching – slow, slower and slowest.  He got cleanup hitter Ty France to swing and miss at a 68 mph strike three.  First baseman Brett Nicholas lined a 67 mph pitch up the middle to plate the second run."   

Crismatt has been getting torched in AAA, and slow, slower, slowest is not working, working, working. 

Some hard throwers falter also, like Gerson Bautista, whose 47 innings in the minors and majors this year have resulted in 65 hits, 21 walks, and 4 hit batsmen.  Reese reported that an interviewee said that Bautista's slider is a work in progress and, when mastered, could be a game-changer for Gerson.

But the supreme trio, Jake (95.7), Zach (also 95.7, not to mention 6-0 in his last 7 starts), and (when healthy) Thor (97.2 MPH sinker) have done collectively very, very well with the high heat.

It seems increasingly difficult in today's game to throw at below average speeds and succeed.

My advice? 

Draft power arms.  

Only power arms.

Slow pokes may dominate in the lower minors, but tend to get hammered more as they climb the ranks.  And find it hard to stop the bleeding.  A 98 MPH fastball is, as Denzel Washington might say, The Equalizer.


Side Note: 

Kevin Plawecki was really sputtering most of this season, sadly so, since he hit well this spring and was geared for what I believe was to be a good season at the plate until the broken bone from a HBP in early April stunted his season. 

Then, in his last 5 games through Sunday (4 starts and a pinch hitting appearance), 9 runs scored, 8 RBIs, 7 hits in 15 ABs, and 4 walks. WOW WOW. Now at .241/.353/.405.

Maybe the offensive game of Plawecki, which in his career to date, to me, has been disappointing, is ready to jump up higher.  Maybe a lot higher.