9/9/18

Mack - From The Desk... Projected 2019 Pipeline Prospects



A couple of things before we proceed.

1.     This is my list and my list only. Everyone who follows the Mets pipeline will have their additions and subtractions to this list.

2.     On my list, there is only one type of player. ‘A’ prospects that have a direct path waiting for them to major league baseball, baring any future career ending injury or a complete talent breakdown’.

So, on to the list.


Probable 2019 GCL-Mets roster members –

C Andres Regnault – normally, I would have fast tracked last year’s top International signee (16-year old Francisco Alvarez - $2.9mil signing bonus – 9th ranked International prospect) similar to the way that SS Ronny Mauricio bypassed the DSL teams, but the 19-year old Regnault will get first shot here after hitting .333/.420/.573/993 in 182 at-bats for the DSL-1 team. He was 5th in the league in batting average before being rewarded with a mid-August 
promotion stateside, but he also was 4th in the league with nine home runs.

OF Adrian Hernandez – the Mets have a lot invested in Hernandez. They plucked down $1.5million dollars in bonus money on him when he signed a year ago as a 16-year old and he did just fine as a 17-year old this year for the DSL-1 team: 249-at bats, .261/.351/.386/736/, 5-HR, 34-RBI, 52-K. He needs to do better when he comes stateside, which will be next spring.


Probable 2019 Kingsport roster members –

SP Simeon Woods-Richardson – The 17-year old former 2nd round pick this year never gave up an earned run this season for the GCL-Mets. Yes, he did pitch in only 5 games (2-starts), but 15 strikeouts in 11.1 innings pitched is also quite impressive. The Mets promoted him in August to Kingsport for their playoff, where he will return next spring to pitch. No rush here, but I do hope he at least gets done with short season ball next season. Total stat line for the season (GCL/K-Port: 7-G, 4-starts, 1-0, 1.56, 1.10, 17.1-IP, 26-K, 4-BB).

SS Ronny Mauricio – Like ‘SWR’ listed above, the 17-year old former bonus baby ($2.1mil signing bonus) played most of the season for the GCL Mets, where he hit .279 in 197-ABs. Mauricio started very strong (June: .356, July: .306) but had a miserable August (.167) before being also promoted for the K-Port playoffs. Things might be moving a little fast for him and I hope the Mets settle him into Tennessee for 2019.


Probable 2019 Brooklyn roster members –

SP Willy Tavares – Simply out, the 20-year old Tavares pitched his way onto the prospect list. He went 3.35 for the 2016 DSL Mets, 2.31 for the 2017 DSL-2 Mets, and combined for a 2.35 this year for the GCL team (1.23) and Kingsport 2.93. Yes, he has only nine K-Port starts this year but I have him moving on to Brooklyn next year to join the following stud…

OF Jarred Kelenic - There is no way that 19-year old Kelenic will repeat Kingsport. He’s just to valuable to the future of this team. He hit .286 for the combined GCL Mets (46-AB, .413) and Kingsport (174-AB, .253) and that’s enough at-bats in the rookie leagues, thank you. He easily could be joined by two other on the cusp outfielders in Brooklyn, Guillermo Granadillo and Raul Beracierta.

OF Raul Beracierta – Another of the very young, very talented Latin players in our current pipeline. The 19-year old went cold a little at the end of the Kingsport season, but still finished with a respectable .270 batting average. His 3-year professional BA is .288 and he did hit 17 points more than Kelenic did at this level. This could be a real dark horse in the system.


Probable 2019 Columbia roster members –

SP  Jaison Viera – The 21-year old Viera also pitched his way this year on to the Mets prospect list. He’s had a three season ERA of 1.78 (2016 DSL: 1.59, 2017 GCL: 1.88, this year, Brooklyn: 13-starts, 1.83). He also had 78 strikeouts in 73.2 innings pitched this year. He will easily move on to Columbia next spring.

SP Christian James – The 20-year old James just snuck on this list last week, replacing Franklyn Kilome. The ex-2016 14th round pick pitched a combined 1.90-ERA this season for Binghamton (1-start), St. Lucie (1-start) and Brooklyn (13-starts). This is not a strikeout artist (54-Ks in 80.2-IP) but he gets batters to miss the balls. He’ll join Viera in South Carolina next spring.

3B  Mark Vientos – The 2nd round 2017 pick played 2018 as an 18-year old and play well he did. He hit .287 in 223-at bats for Kingsport, going .316 in his last 10 games. His slugging percentage surged to .878 (11-HR, 12-doubles), which hints to future power from this kid. I love this pick and he actually has an outside chance of starting next spring for Columbia; however, smart money has him playing June for Brooklyn and then moving on to South Carolina later on that year.


Probable 2019 St. Lucie roster members –

            SP Thomas Szapucki – It’s just a down right shame what happened to the 22-year old this season. The former 2015 5th round pick was ranked in the top five Mets prospects until he topped off a history of arm problems with Tommy John Surgery in June 2017. He never made it back this season and will start 2019 with a big question mark on his back. Still, after going 2.27, 1.02  in 18-games, 15-starts over his 3-year minor league career (GCL, K-Port, Brooklyn, Colombia), I still have him opened up in Florida due to his age.

            SP Jordan Humphreys – Humphreys was 21-years old last year, going 10-1, 1.42, 0.72 for Columbia. He was bumped to St.Lucie and, like Szapucki, his arm went boom and he hasn’t pitched since. He should be completely recovered from TSJ by opening day 2019 age, because he only pitched two games in Florida last season, I have him returning there next spring.

            RP  Ryley Gilliam – I continue to put the 22-year old ex-Clemson closer on a fast track, not only because of his age but also his talent. I was upset that Gilliam didn’t start above Brooklyn, but I lived with it so most Mets pundits to get to see what I saw when he was a Tiger. Everyone walks away this season impressed: 17-G, 2.08, 5-saves, 17.1-IP, 31-K. He does need a little work on his walks (13-BB, 1.38-WHIP). Again, I call for the Mets to think big here and skip A-Ball, like so many other prospects have in the past. You may be looking a the Mets closer here in 2021.


Probable 2019 Binghamton roster members –

            SP Anthony Kay – the 23-year old didn’t have the ++ year we all projected him to have (Columbia/St. Lucie: 23-starts, 7-11, 4.26, 122.2-IP, 123-K) but let’s remember that he pitched this year for two teams that are going to be easy to forget. He’s move on to Binghamton because he’s one of our top upper level pipeline arms and we need him to perfect his pitching at that level. The hope is that we will see him in Queens in 2020.

            SP David Peterson – The 22-year old Peterson started this season like crap. His season ending 4.33-ERA is nothing to write home about, but considering it was 7.03 on August 1st, he’s come a long way to put his game back together again and re-earn the title of top Mets pitching prospect in the pipeline. The bottom line is he threw 23 innings in his last four starts without giving up an earned run.

            Peterson will move onto Binghamton, probably end the 2019 season in Syracuse, and will be ready to join the Mets rotation in 2020.

            SS Andres Gimenez – so, you’re 19-years old, playing in a league with players mostly two years older than you, you win the Defensive Shortstop of the Year award there, and you’re hitting .282. What’s next? 

            Don’t be surprised if Baseball American has Gimenez in the Top 15 prospects next spring. It sure looks like he will start here, move on the Syracuse, and take over short next September.

           
Probable 2019 Syracuse roster members –

            SP Justin Dunn – Dunn did everything he did to fall off this list. He had a nice 2.36-ERA in nine starts for St.Lucie, but following this with 15 erratic starts for Binghamton (4.22). His last 10 produced a 5.30-ERA. Still, the 22-year old starter will move on to Syracuse because many of the pipeline SP prospects have either faltered or gone injured this year (Crismatt, Kilome, Flexen, Humpreys, Gonzalez, Szapucki). 

18 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Lots of strong talent there. It will be interesting to see how high the system is ranked in spring 2019.

I'd move some guys faster. The upward surges of Soto, Torres, Acuna Jr, and Andujar are going to make guys like Kelenic want to move faster.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

Morning.

I tend to become conservative when I am handing out opening day promotions, especially two level promotions.

Not much response here for a whole lot of work.

I feel like Reese.

TP said...

While it is hard as a Met fan to see all the early 20s kids having impact in the big leagues, I think it requires a keen eye to determine which kids can make the fast jump to the bigs. An error on this call can ruin a career.

What the kids like Soto, Torres, Acuna Jr. have is either awesome physical talent (primarily bat speed) or excellent baseball instincts, and a personality that can handle the show. In some cases all three.

From what is written about Gimenez, he seems like a candidate. Excellent baseball instincts, excellent work ethic, easy kid to work with...the numbers show advanced plate discipline and natural ability to use his speed on the bases.

Tom Brennan said...

TP, I think Gimenez will be a great player. He does everything well - except power, which I truly believe Will emerge in 2019.

Mack, if you feel like Reese, take 2 Excedrin :)

Only kidding. Writing good stuff without much in terms of responses is puzzling.

My brother has been in the hospital 3 weeks due to complications from a burst appendix...I mentioned your deGrom for Realmuto trade idea. He agreed with me on not messing with the starter strength of this team.

Mack Ade said...

TP -

I agree.

I think Gimenez is a prime beef.

This is the once person they should move quickly so he can, the latest, open up as the Mets 2020 shortstop.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

I understand your desire to keep the 1-2-3 deGrom-Thor-Wheels front end around.

Matz would not be enough to get Realmuto

You don't want to give up Gimenez

Guess we should move on to Grandal

TexasGusCC said...

Mack, been enjoying manny of the prospect posts and the info from each by you and Tom. I’d like to touch on a few things:

- I have tried to post and I remember one specific time that I tried to post six times and just gave up. The system kept throwing me out. I understand that the Google Account thing may be better, but I want to just use my name that I use on all sites to stay consistent. Is that a problem?
- I saw that your prospect list on the right doesn’t include David Peterson. Are you that down on him?
- At this point, while Gimenez is an impressive talent, Alonso is a supreme hitter. Yes, only .248 in Vegas, but you even put Mauricio over him? Alonso will be higher than Gimenez on prospect lists when they come out. How do you have Alonso third?
- Brennan put McNeil #1. How do you explain going from basically unranked to #1?

Jon Messinger said...

Great article! If a third of the prospects make it, and management can keep a few of our good young major leaguers, we can have a he'll of a good team in 3 to 4 years. If I wasn't getting married in 2 hours, I'd write more...

Eddie from Corona said...

Degrom trade would have to be a monster return
Realmuto isn’t what posey or Mauer were so no on that deal...
the pipeline looks promising and but see the pipeline having only 1 future aces SWR so signing the right one of our top 3 Is very important
But I would still focus on bats in this draft... we are still behind the curve in my opinion

Mack Ade said...

Texas

I wish I could help u with your troubles with the site but I can not.

I can say that you have been the only person that has had this problem.

Lastly, david peterson IS in my report

Mack Ade said...

Eddie

The exciting news is what went on in the lower levels from KPort to the DSL teams

We seem to be 2-3 yrs away from a very deep pipeline

Reese Kaplan said...

What a nice problem to have in 2020 when Todd Frazier will be gone, McNeil can shift to 3B, Rosario to 2B and Gimenez slating in at SS.

In my gut I think the new GM will trade Alonso over the winter in a splashy sell-high deal to land a Realmuto or equivalent young, proven talent. That then leaves 1B a split between Bruce and Flores with another OF needed.

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, I would consider a Realmuto for Alonso trade as the key pieces. I think Jeter would too.

TexasGus, I had McNeil before the season at # 12 only because of his 2016-17 injury history. Otherwise I would have had him around # 5. He sure deserved that # 1, based on his superb (and thankfully healthy) 2018.

I will update my prospect ranking list in the next few days.

Mike Freire said...

Just got home from a day away from the computer, etc.

Nice work, Mack.....very informative and I think it bodes well for the next few years.

We are developing quite the "Latin pipeline".

Eddie from Corona said...

Reese / Tom you guys talk about drafting power and we have a guy who’s calling card is power and you would trade it?
For a catcher who isn’t a MVP level player?
When we have a hole at 1B?

TexasGusCC said...

Mack, it seems that when I’m commenting from my iPhone, it’s not energizing the blogger. However, from my iPads there isn’t a problem. It must be in the phone settings.

My comment on excluding David Petersen was from your top prospects list on the right on the home page, not from your write-up.

Anonymous said...

Let me throw a wrench or two into this mix...

1. I wouldn't trade Alonso or Gimenez like someone proposed above. Mets could probably get Realmuto for players other than Peter and Andres. Maybe. Would much rather see Peter and Andres starting for the Mets in 2019. Peter on first, Andres on second base. Yep. Why you ask? Because I would predicate this first of all on sending both to Mets Winter Ball this off season, and then seeing how each one does there.

Even if one or both were not completely made optimal for this, they would get much needed MLB experience in 2019 under their belts. I think 2020 could be the Mets true season.

2. The bigger question to me is whether or not Yoenis Cespedes can come back whole in 2019. This is so huge because the Mets simply must add in some serious homerun power game if Yo' cannot go. This has to happen to balance out the 2019 Mets offensive attack. Right now, the Mets are winning ball games against pretty good teams using a small ball version offense. But if the Mets could add in maybe two more power bats (maybe one being Peter Alonso) I think they can then expand their offense out to a more rounded strategy.

3. Relief Pitching. Actually, the Mets' bullpen is starting to show real signs of life now. What has to happen for the Mets bullpen to be stellar might be to finish grooming Vegas reliever extraordinaire Gerson Bautista. He has the 200 mph fastball, but he has to still locate better and get his secondary pitches up to the task. And if Gerson is made optimal for the start of 2019 Spring Training, Mickey Callaway could finally get some sleep at night again.

4. Right now, the bullpen is probably Lugo, Gsellman, Zamora, maybe Bashlor, maybe Hanhold. Drew Smith is very good relieving right now. But to me, I send him to Winter Ball but to start. The Mets could switch out Justin Dunn to a reliever (which he once already was in his career) and allow Drew to start. Drew has the pitches, mound presence/composure already. For his age, Drew Smith is way ahead of the game here. To me, the Mets have Drew Smith and Corey Oswalt as their only two viable kid starters.

5. More than one poster here today has stated that in 2020 the infield starters could be: 1B Alonso 2B Rosario SS Gimenez 3B McNeil. I concur somewhat, except I think because Rosario has come on second half so strongly on offense, leading off and defensively, that I would leave him totally alone on shortstop to complete his own development. This was his rookie campaign. McNeil's second base defense is really awesome to watch since his being called up second half. But he could play anywhere and still be great.

6. Now for the dreaded Mets catcher question. I really do like Miami's JT Realmuto, a lot. He should end 2019 around 18-20 homeruns, 90 RBI's.I think that he has arbitration after the 2018 season ends. But you have to know, that every single team in baseball will be after him and that could equate to his being "very pricey."

Not unlike Mack, I remember the "heyday" for MLB catchers beginning with Johnny Bench in the seventies, Gary Carter the eighties, and Mike Piazza in the nineties...And this era isn't those for catchers. JT and Wilson Ramos being the other good one. But here's the sticky glue, Patrick Mazieka. Go take another long look at his MiLB stat sheet, you will see and wonder what I see and wonder. I need more time to think this one over.

Sidebar Notation:

This "Florence Hurricane" could be a total beotch! "Cat 4" is pretty much total devastation, 140+ mph winds, chance of horrific water, wind, and spawned tornado damage.

My heart goes out to anyone caught in the way of this one. So please pray if you pray and let's all hope for the very best!

Anonymous said...

Not sure

I am not totally sure, but I think that I may have found Travis D'arnold. He was at the Jets game last night, starting at quarterback!

That rascal!!

May want to get the gumshoes and hounds out on that?