OK, so we are officially past Labor Day and well into the month of September. That means that the playoff races (Divisions and Wild Cards) are up for grabs and the final playoff picture will start to come into view. As with most years, there are interesting story lines and very intriguing “potential” playoff match ups that are shaping up.
American League (current standings and projected records)
1. Boston 95-44 (.683) 111-51
2. Houston 83-53 (.616) 101-61
3. Cleveland 77-60 (.562) 91-71
W1. New York 86-52 (.623) 101-61
W2. Oakland 83-53 (.597) 97-65
Since
the last time I posted a "standings" article (a few weeks ago), the Red
Sox, Astros and Yankees have "come back to Earth" a bit,
but the Indians and the A's have surged forward. Two of the three
division leaders have at least an 8.5 game lead (BOS and CLE), so
we may not get much drama for those divisional races, but the A's have
closed quite a bit of ground on the Astros so that race could be
intriguing.
The
AL Wild Card races will likely be anti-climatic as the Yankees and A's
have pulled away from the Mariners and look to be in good shape (unless the A's catch the Astros, then Houston will be in the Wild Card match up).
Despite
a recent lull, the Red Sox are still playing excellent baseball and are on
pace to win 111 games. They should be the early favorite to make
it back to the World Series (especially if Chris Sale is available in a
short series or two). You also have two additional teams that could win
over 100 games in the regular season, with the defending champion
Astros still looking formidable and the aforementioned Yankees on pace to host the Wild Card match up with a better record then the other Divisional Champions.
As
of this article, New York would host Oakland in the Wild Card, with the
winner going to Boston for the Divisional Series. Houston would host
Cleveland in the other Divisional Series and the
winners would meet in the ALCS. Houston and Boston could potentially
meet in the ALCS in what could be an epic battle.
National League (current standings and projected records)
1. Chicago 81-56 (.591) 96-66
2. Atlanta 76-61 (.555) 90-72
3. Colorado 75-62 (.547) 89-73
W1. Milwaukee 78-61 (.561) 91-71
W2. St. Louis 76-62 (.557) 90-72
***There are three additional teams (LA, Arizona and Philadelphia) that are just off the listed Wild Card pace with roughly twenty-four games to play.
Unlike
the American League, all three of the division leaders have very small
leads (4 games maximum), so we will likely have an interesting divisional
chase in all three divisions of the National League. Additionally, the
Wild Card race should be even crazier, since there are a total of five
teams within five games of each other.
With all of the uncertainty within
the Divisional races and the Wild Card races, putting together a probable playoff picture in the National League is much more difficult then the American League.
Also
unlike the American League, there is quite a bit of parity in the
National League and that leads to “ordinary” records. As you can see above,
Chicago has the best record in the National League, but their record would
only surpass the Indians in the American League standings, which is crazy.
IF
the season ended today, Milwaukee would host St Louis in the Wild Card
with the winner going to Chicago for the Divisional Series. Atlanta
would host Colorado in the other Divisional Series and the winners
would meet in the NLCS. Picking the potential NLCS is much more
difficult, but if we rely on the home teams for now,
you could have the Braves and Cubs going at it for a chance to reach
the World Series against either Boston or Houston, most likely.
Should be very interesting (especially in the NL) as we head towards the finish line.
4 comments:
Mike -
Nice job on the update.
I hope to see one of these from you through the Mets-less playoff race weekly
I'm a bit torn here. On the one hand, I despise the Braves nearly as much as I do the Yankees. On the other hand, a late season surge by the Phillies would probably hand the Cy Young to Aaron Nola instead of Jacob deGrom.
On the AL side, how loud will the wailing be out of Beantown when they finish with nearly a historical win record and likely be gone in the first round due to the thin pitching staff?
Nice job, Mike.
By comparison to those teams, Mets keep learning (but never really learning) that marginal players on a roster kill a team's playoff chances. Quality is a non-negotiable requirwment...don't take the field without it.
You are correct, Reese.......it would be quite something to win 111 games in the regular season, only to stumble in the playoffs.
I think the Yankees should invest in pitching as opposed to adding more offense (MCCutchen) to a team that already scores a ton of runs, but what do I know.
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