Mike Freire - Playoff Update (12 Games Left)

There are roughly 12 games left in the MLB regular season, which is approximately four series or 7.5% of the total number of games scheduled during a regular season (162).  Much like last week, that means that the playoff races (Divisions and Wild Cards) are getting closer to their respective conclusion(s) and the overall picture will reveal itself shortly.

Since more and more teams are dropping by the wayside, I will focus on both league’s playoff pictures instead of everyone’s record, etc.

With that said, here we go;

American League (current standings and projected records)

1.     Boston           103-47  (.687)     111-51
2.     Houston         94-55  (.631)       102-60
3.     Cleveland      83-66  (.557)        90-72

W1.  New York       91-58  (.611)         99-63
W2.  Oakland        90-60  (.600)         97-65

Since the last time I posted a "standings" article, the Red Sox and Astros continue to play excellent baseball which has led to an increase in their respective leads (Boston has an 11 game lead and the Astros now have a 4.5 game lead).  As such, Boston's "magic number" is now 2 and I expect them to clinch the AL East (as well as home field advantage) in the next few days.  Cleveland hasn't been setting the world on fire, but since the rest of the AL Central basically sucks, they have already clinched their division so they are now in "Operation Rest" mode while they prepare for the playoffs.

The AL Wild Card races are proving to be anti-climatic as the Yankees and A's are a comfortable seven games clear of their nearest challengers.  However, both teams should be thankful that the season is almost over since the Rays have been "red hot" and could be in the conversation if the season were a bit longer.  As a matter of fact, they managed to cool off the A's this past weekend which indirectly helped out the Yankees who are in a "free fall".  If the Bronx Bombers are not careful, they may slip just enough that they will have to travel to Oakland for the one game Wild Card playoff, which is less then ideal.

As of this article, New York would host Oakland in the Wild Card, with the winner going to Boston for the Divisional Series.  Houston would host Cleveland in the other Divisional Series and the winners would meet in the ALCS.  Houston and Boston, could potentially meet in the ALCS, so in other words, not much has changed in the past week.

National League (current standings and projected records)

1.     Chicago          87-62  (.584)      95-67
2.     Atlanta            83-66  (.557)       90-72
3.     Colorado        82-67  (.550)       89-73

W1.  Milwaukee     85-65  (.567)       92-70
W2.  St. Louis/LA   82-68  (.547)       89-73

***There are four additional teams (Arizona, Philadelphia, Washington and Pittsburgh) that are between 4 and 7 games behind the Wild Card pace, but with other teams to "jump over" and so few games remaining I think it is safe to say they are on the outside looking in.

Unlike the American League, most of the National League playoff races are still in doubt, as you can see above.  Atlanta has widened their lead over the slumping Phillies to 6.5 games, so that may be close to it's end game.  However, the other two races are separated by 2.5 games or less, so who knows how that will shake out in another couple of weeks (Colorado should be seriously looking over their shoulder at the Dodgers who are arguably more talented and seem to be hitting their stride).

The Wild Card chase is also very interesting with the Brewers, Dodgers and Cardinals all within three games of each other!  Milwaukee is a bit ahead, but the Dodgers and Cardinals are tied for the second Wild Card spot heading down the stretch.  Further complicating matters is that the Brewers and Dodgers could also win their respective divisions, which would put the Cubs and Rockies in the Wild Card mix, instead.

All of this is to say that handicapping the NL playoff picture is much more problematic, even with close to 93% of the regular season complete.

IF the season ended today, Milwaukee would host St Louis in the Wild Card with the winner going to Chicago for the Divisional Series (I think St Louis has the tiebreaker advantage over Los Angeles based upon their season series - 4 to 3 in favor of the Cardinals).  Atlanta would host Colorado (for now) in the other Divisional Series and the winners would meet in the NLCS.  Picking the potential NLCS is much more difficult, but if we rely on the home teams, you would have the Braves and Cubs going at it for a chance to reach the World Series against  either Boston or Houston, most likely.

***BUT, with the way the Dodgers have looked of late, they would be a serious "dark horse" should they somehow get into the playoff field.