Reese Kaplan -- A Fireman to Replace the Firestarters

The Mets have had a long history of mostly effective although sometimes anxiety-wreaking closers, including the likes of Jesse Orosco, Billy Wagner, John Franco, Armando Benitez, Addison Reed and most recently Jeurys Familia.  However, going into 2019 there is no one clearly defined for this role.  Let’s take a brief look at some internal and external options.

Seth Lugo came up to great success in 2016 but then went backwards in 2017 only to put it together again this year.  Although he’s bounced a bit between spot starting and the bullpen, he’s really seemed to take to the relief pitching role which perhaps is better for his unusually high spin rate.  This year overall he has a sub 3.00 ERA and batters are only hitting .216 against him.  His ability to handle multiple innings is something that would be sacrificed if he moved into the closer’s role.

Robert Gsellman is kind of the pitching equivalent of Jay Bruce in that he’s terribly streaky.  He can go long stretches where he’s virtually unhittable as the movement on his sinker frustrates opponents, but then he also can go through periods (like now) where nothing seems to be going right.  His 4.00 ERA and .272 BAA don’t suggest he’s ready for this role yet as the key to a closer is consistency.

Anthony Swarzak was brought in to support Familia but his season has been lost due to multiple injuries.  They’re on the hook for fairly big money for next year, and like Juan Lagares, they’re stuck with Sandy Alderson’s bad judgment.  He’s only had two good years in his entire career and shown nothing to suggest he’s ready for this position as fireman.

Drew Smith has had a nice start to his major league career, arriving late in the season.  He’s got what fellow Las Vegas 51 Tim Peterson called “an electric arm” and in the early going he has a gaudy 2.05 ERA.  Unfortunately, if you dig a little deeper you see he has only struck out 14 in 22 IP, walked 6 and given up 22 hits.  He has room to grow and is certainly looking like the only decent return in the whole 2017 fire sale.

The rest of the bullpen options are not really in the equation.  Jerry Blevins and AJ Ramos are both free agents.  Jacob Rhame has not yet been able to translate minor league success into the next level.  Paul Sewald has yet to win a major league game.  Tim Peterson started off like a house afire but then quickly got exposed.  Bobby Wahl, Daniel Zamora and Eric Hanhold don’t have enough of a track record yet to project a more significant role.

Well, what about free agency?  The crown prize, of course, is Craig Kimbrel.  The anchor of the Red Sox bullpen has 40 saves already with a 2.33 ERA.  For his career he is 31-19, 1.86 ERA, a 14.7 Ks per 9 IP and a miniscule WHIP of 0.920.  Right now he’s earning $13 million and going into his age 31 season he’s probably seeking a 4 year deal in the neighborhood of $70 million which would put him in line with what is being paid to Aroldis Chapman and Wade Davis.  These are the Mets and getting the best available player at a high price is not in their DNA, so moving right along... 

The next best option in terms of youth and track record of success is the man they sent to Oakland for sore-armed Wahl and sore-shouldered Will Toffey, Jeurys Familia.  He’s turning 30 next year and will likely command $10 million or so per year after finishing out his $7.9 million contract.  He’s had some health issues which might temper his price tag, but he’s got 18 saves and a 2.81 ERA for this year so there will be plenty of suitors. 

Lefty Andrew Miller has shown he can be productive in New York while serving across town with the Yankees.  Most of his career he’s been a setup guy though one season he served as a primary closer with 36 saves.  He’s earning $9 million this year and missed some time due to injury, so he’s likely not going to get more than that.  Going into his age 35 season he would be a risk and given the club’s history with injuries he would not look to be a gamble they’re likely to make. 

There is an option being bandied about in an exchange of bad contracts that could work as well.  The Giants have given up on former star closer Mark Melancon and there are two more years of obligation to the tune of $28 million.  Coincidentally the Mets have gotten an injury-plagued season from Jay Bruce and he’s also due $28 million.  Melancon has saved as many as 51 games in a season and has 189 saves for his career.  He has a nearly 4:1 K to BB ratio, a WHIP around 1.000 and an ERA of 2.72.  The Giants did not get THAT Melancon just as the Mets did not get the 2017 version of Jay Bruce.  Having lost Andrew McCutchen already and Hunter Pence a shadow of his former self, it’s possible the Giants might bite as their need for offense supercedes a very expensive setup guy.  The Mets have a lefty-heavy lineup as it is, and will need to address the Bruce situation when Cespedes returns, so perhaps losing him early in exchange for a guy with top notch closer credentials is an interesting way to go.

So who do you see as the 2019 closer?