9/12/18

Reese Kaplan -- Can the Mets Catch a Break?



It’s safe to say that the Mets’ biggest positional problem for a long time has been catcher.  Of course, even adding Johnny Bench in his prime wouldn’t necessarily propel the team into the playoff picture due to other needs and the overall lack of direction from the owners and the front office. 

There are a few interesting names on the free agent front this coming year, including Yasmani Grandal of the Dodgers who is currently hitting .233 with 22 HRs and 63 RBIs.  However, you want Grandal more for his defense which, with the staff the Mets have, should be a much higher priority than it has been.  He’s going to be turning 30 next year and is currently earning $7.9 million.  Signing him requires no chips, just money. 

Wilson Ramos was a gamble coming off some major injury which is why Washington let him walk away after a season in which the previously light-hitting catcher turned it up several notches and finished the year with 22 HRs, 80 RBIs and batted .307.  He was slow working his way back in 2017 from injury but this year between Tampa and Philly he’s hitting .310 with 15 HRs and 64 RBIs in just 345 ABs.  I guess he was a late bloomer.  Defensively he’s not quite in Grandal’s league but he’s still better than the throwing challenged duo of Kevin Plawecki and Travis “Mr. Glass” d’Arnaud.  He’s a year older and will be 31 in the 2019 season.  He’s also a free agent.  He went from a $4 million payday in 2017 due to his injury to a $10.5 million salary this year. 


After that the pickings get mightly slim, but I’d throw an interesting name in there to consider.  Right now the Phillies are playing Jorge Alfaro behind Ramos due to his bat being a work in progress, but he has a Howitzer of an arm.  His offense is certainly not bad -- .269/14/47 for his career over 449 ABs.  Prying him loose from the Phillies would be extremely difficult unless they decide to hang onto Wilson Ramos. 

There are two youngish catchers that are solid over several years and might be worthy trade targets.  Kansas City’s Salvador Perez and Miami’s J.T. Realmuto are the kind of franchise-shifting catchers worth opening the player vault to obtain. 


Perez is still just 28 years old, has made six straight All Star games and is a lock to hit 20+ HRs per year while handling the pitching staff with aplomb.  This year his average is down at .233, but he’d still take a mega offer to even get the Royals to take the call.  He’s got three more years on his deal for an average of $13.2 million per year before he becomes a FA in 2022. 


J.T. Realmuto is much more well known to Mets fans as they see him many times per year when they play the Marlins.  All he’s done in his career is average .282 with 18 HRs and 74 RBIs per season, but he’s improving each year.  At age 27 he’s only earning $2.9 million now and is under financial control for two more years before hitting the free agency period. 


I’ll throw one more name in there to consider, Francisco Mejia.  He got moved mid-year shockingly from the Indians to the Padres for Brad Hand.  (See how trades SHOULD be done?)  Mejia has a cannon for an arm and has hit .293 for his minor league career but produces little power.  Twice he’s hit 14 HRs but at 5’10” and 185 he’s not a prototypical slugger.  What he does do is make contact, does not strike out and has even managed to pilfer 18 bases.  Since he’s been moved once already, the uber-prospect might be obtainable.

Now here’s where I’m going to lose many of you.  When the subject came up about trading Jacob deGrom or Zack Wheeler or Noah Syndergaard for top prospects, everyone was up in arms about giving away known quality for unknown potential. 


Now the shoe is on the other foot and if you want to make a trade to obtain any of the non-free agent catchers, perhaps the name you would dangle is Peter Alonso.  I know, I know…I cn already hear the screeching and howling out here in El Paso.  “How could you possibly move a guy coming off a 36 HRs, 119 RBI season between AAA and AA?” 

Do you remember a year before when Dom Smith was the next sure thing, coming off a .330 batting average with some home run power?  How’d that work out for ya?  That’s the thing about prospects – you never know what you’re going to get.  Some guys make barely a ripple on the prospect sheets like Jeff McNeil and T.J. Rivera while others come with great fanfare like Gavin Cecchini and don’t progress as expected.

So with that in mind, would you consider moving Pete Alonso, striking while the iron is scorching hot, if it meant bringing back a J.T. Realmuto or a Salvador Perez?  Remember, the flavor of the week Alonso hit .260 in AAA and is the second coming of Aaron Judge.  Dom Smith hit .258 and most people would trade him for the proverbial bag of balls.  

In this case, the risk/reward equation gets transferred from the Mets to either the Marlins or the Royals.  I can see them coveting both for different reasons --- Perez because Dave Eiland knows him from his K.C. days, and Realmuto because they know him as the opposition.  Realmuto would be the better bet from a business standpoint as he would be less expensive.  I posed that question to Mack and although he is a big Grandal fan, he thought that would be an equitable deal for Realmuto.

Of course, you could simply look to acquire one of the free agents for money alone and keep Pete Alonso until you deem him ready to take over at 1B.  Since the Mets don’t currently have a plan, what would you do?

10 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Realmuto looks really good, but I would opt to keep Alonso. I will post a short article as to why later today.

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

You and I are on the same page here.

A catcher needs to do produce power, BA, framing, and the ability to throw out potential runners heading to second.

Grandal does three of these, less the BA.

Ramos produced the same power, adds nice BA, but has marginal defensive skills and has a recent history of injuries.

Realmuto is the closest there is to the complete package and could probably be gotten via a multi-player, team controlled trade.

Alonso + Nido for Realmuto (the'three O's")

TexasGusCC said...

Reese, if Alonso + Nido were sufficient, the. Ok. But, if I’m the Marlins I’m telling you:
‘I can’t count on prospects, so Alonso, Mazeika, Gimenez, and Dunn or Szapucki for Realmuto. Take it or leave it. We have a budding cheap young catcher under control for three years.’

Understand, even in your article that calls prospects crap shoots, the Indians gave up a top-15 prospect for a top reliever. How much more than a reliever is a top catcher? Now would you make that trade?

Tom Brennan said...

TexasGus, there's always a catch, isn't there?

Reese Kaplan said...

I think the truth may lie in between Mack's and TexasGus' proposals. Alonso, a catcher AND a top flight pitching prospect may be the price. If it included Gimenez as well, the Mets would be the ones to hang up the phone. They might throw in someone like Cecchini instead since he was a number one draft pick and despite the up and down minor league career, the numbers in general are positive -- a .284 career hitter in the minors.

Reese Kaplan said...

And Mack, what's your take on Salvador Perez?

Mack Ade said...

Reese

Perez mirrors Grandal but it would probably be easier and cheaper to sign him and not trade the farm for him.

Eddie from Corona said...

first of all when was Dom Smith every viewed as a sure thing?
have you every heard of anyone clamoring to acquire him? Or when anyone had a chance to see him play ever think this guys is gonna be a stud? (no need to answer that)

second of all you trade chips for as you say sure things... Remember when Lucroy was the guy we needed to have to make a push for 2015 playoffs? how did that work out... These catchers are flawed. these are not Piazza, posey in their prime... so no pass on all due to money (or draft picks lost) or the assets (precious few) it would be believed in acquiring them...

Catchers are horrible all across baseball so we should not be trying to acquire a exception.

trade for the guy Mejia's replacing, and save your assets for difference makers..

Keep a young cheap power hitter... (and then you can sign a stud)


Tom Brennan said...

Eddie, Smith used to be a sure thing at the buffet table!

I am very puzzled why more guys in the minors who have a decent hit tool but are logjammed at their positions don't try to become a catcher, since it has gotten bad hitters like Anthony Recker in the big leagues for quite a decent stretch (4.028 seasons in the majors, to be exact). For instance, could Dom Smith be a good catcher? Or Kevin Kaczmarski? Would his career last years longer if he switched?

Reese Kaplan said...

Hitting .330 with 25 HRs across majors and minors is pretty gaudy. He also came with a rep for strong D.