Tom Brennan - METS' CATCHERS - RECAP AND OUTLOOK
I'm impatient - I could wait on this catcher chat until the end of the season, but I am impulsive. Fast twitch.
Now that (writing this on Thursday of last week, and with Devin Mesoraco and Kevin Plawecki turning on some power since then), the season is substantially complete...so:
Were our catchers collectively championship caliber?
Or Chump Caliber?
A little more the latter than the former in 2018.
Through Wednesday, the Mets had used 5 catchers, not surprising when # 1 catcher coming into the season, Travis d'Arnaud, departed after 16 plate appearances in 2018 with an injury requiring Tommy John surgery. Also catching were Devin Mesoraco, Tomas Nido, Jose Lobaton, and Kevin Plawecki.
In 521 at bats, the catchers have hit just .211, with 128 Ks.
But the catchers' 22 doubles, 16 homers, 65 RBIs and 59 walks were not so bad, actually
Most of those extra base hits, walks, and RBIs were from Messrs. Plawecki and Mesoraco.
But Nido and Lobaton combined? Awful.
21 for 119 (.176), 9 walks, 11 RBIs.
21 for 119 (.176), 9 walks, 11 RBIs.
Plawecki's .228/.343/.391 were solid enough for a # 2 catcher. Mesoraco's .216/.305/.378? Ditto.
Did the defense of the lads wearing the tools of ignorance make up for the lackluster hitting? Not really.
Only 30 for 159 in steals (18.8%), 11 errors and 9 passed balls.
Plawecki as a # 2 catcher defensively? Just 10 of 60 caught stealing (16.6%), but not a single passed ball in 2018, so I rate him defensively as subpar, but not terrible.
Mesoraco? A better 11 for 51 (21.6%), but 8 passed balls. Same so-so defensive skills.
Before we just base our decision on one season, it should be noted that when Travis d'Arnaud was mostly healthy in 2017, he hit well: 323 ABs, 19 doubles, 16 HR, 54 RBI, .254 - but he threw out just 11 of 66 (16.6%).
By comparison, Rene Rivera threw out a far better 12 of 33 (36.3%) that year, but the Mets did not keep him for 2018.
Before we just base our decision on one season, it should be noted that when Travis d'Arnaud was mostly healthy in 2017, he hit well: 323 ABs, 19 doubles, 16 HR, 54 RBI, .254 - but he threw out just 11 of 66 (16.6%).
By comparison, Rene Rivera threw out a far better 12 of 33 (36.3%) that year, but the Mets did not keep him for 2018.
So, if I am the GM, what do I do for catcher for 2019?
First, I see as best I can this fall if the vilified, oft-injured Travis d'Arnaud is likely to heal by opening day.
Seems too early to really know soon, since his surgery was in mid-April - if the dude can't throw at least as good as before the injury, he it might make more sense to release him, as he'd be an expensive risk, but he represents, in my opinion, the best bat of the bunch.
Seems too early to really know soon, since his surgery was in mid-April - if the dude can't throw at least as good as before the injury, he it might make more sense to release him, as he'd be an expensive risk, but he represents, in my opinion, the best bat of the bunch.
Plawecki is a decent # 2, and so, it appears is Mesoraco.
But free agent Mesoraco will not be all that cheap, and probably not good enough for a big spend, unless other options dry up. Plus, that bulging disk neck problem could rear its head again (hard to rear one's head with a bulging disk, though).
Nido? I am not sold on Tomas right now as being anything more than a #3 or # 4 catcher. Decent enough defensively, but can't be relied on to hit at all until proven otherwise. His .205 on base % with the Mets in over 80 plate appearances doesn't impress whatsoever.
Pat Mazeika and Ali Sanchez? Options their for call up in my view would be late in 2019, perhaps, but not early in 2019.
Scott Manea? Scott had a strong season for Columbia offensively and defensively, but at best, he might be an option in 2020, since he has to climb through High A, AA, and AAA first.
All of the above being considered, I would sign a top free agent catcher, period, and keep Plawecki. Do what it takes.
With a nucleus of Jake, Matz, Zack, Thor, Conforto, Nimmo, McNeil, Nimmo, and, for part of 2019, Gimenez and Alonso, this team should have a very high floor in 2019.
Don't screw it up with "wishful catcher thinking"...hoping in-house guys will somehow get it done.
That is high risk thinking - instead, properly shore the position up.
Sign a quality catcher (good hitter, strong defensively) to help win a World Series in 2019.
And...consider asking Jake the Great deGrom his opinion. Managing to win just 10 games in probably the 2nd or 3rd best starter season in team history gives him a very good reason to be able to weigh in regarding which catcher candidate could help him win more in 2019.
But free agent Mesoraco will not be all that cheap, and probably not good enough for a big spend, unless other options dry up. Plus, that bulging disk neck problem could rear its head again (hard to rear one's head with a bulging disk, though).
Nido? I am not sold on Tomas right now as being anything more than a #3 or # 4 catcher. Decent enough defensively, but can't be relied on to hit at all until proven otherwise. His .205 on base % with the Mets in over 80 plate appearances doesn't impress whatsoever.
Pat Mazeika and Ali Sanchez? Options their for call up in my view would be late in 2019, perhaps, but not early in 2019.
Scott Manea? Scott had a strong season for Columbia offensively and defensively, but at best, he might be an option in 2020, since he has to climb through High A, AA, and AAA first.
All of the above being considered, I would sign a top free agent catcher, period, and keep Plawecki. Do what it takes.
With a nucleus of Jake, Matz, Zack, Thor, Conforto, Nimmo, McNeil, Nimmo, and, for part of 2019, Gimenez and Alonso, this team should have a very high floor in 2019.
Don't screw it up with "wishful catcher thinking"...hoping in-house guys will somehow get it done.
That is high risk thinking - instead, properly shore the position up.
Sign a quality catcher (good hitter, strong defensively) to help win a World Series in 2019.
And...consider asking Jake the Great deGrom his opinion. Managing to win just 10 games in probably the 2nd or 3rd best starter season in team history gives him a very good reason to be able to weigh in regarding which catcher candidate could help him win more in 2019.
21 comments:
Morning Thomas.
Good report.
The Mets are not going to be a serious contender without a catcher that can hit, catch, and throw. They don't have one of them currently on their team for 2019.
The only 'prospect' is recently signed ($2.7mil) bonus boy, 16-year old Francisco Alvarez, who will take at least 5 years to work his way through the pipeline.
Realmuto is your best option here and, to get him, you are going to have to trade some talented cheap controlled players to Jeter to get him.
Lugo is being stretched out for next spring... him and Gimenez might be a good offer./
Good morning guys,
I would just sign Ramos and keep Plawecki. You can't trade Gimenez, you can't.
Mets winter homework:
Sign Ramos, extend Wheeler and deGrom.
Try very very hard to find another home for Bruce.
Get a real BP.
And you can't do that without a smart GM.
Agree sign Ramos to work with Plawecki and then work on the BP it's awful and all the great promise for next year goes up in smoke.
Morning MACK:
Cant believe youd even mention trading Gimenez?
Realmuto will cost prospects, pass.
Grandel or Ramos.
Id prefer Grandel because he is a switch hitter,but either player is my preference.
Too many seasons have passed waiting on D'arnauld and Plawecki.
Plawecki is decent as a backup, but if your looking for a backup id rather have Rene Rivera back there.
3 Big FAs to sign Grandel, Zach Britton and Kelvin Herrera
Steve
Viper, I like your plan.
Mack, I want to keep Gimenez, unless they feel he will not develop a true MLB bat for some reason. He seems like his defense, speed and bat could make him Trea Turner II.
Steve, I like your "3 Big FAs to sign Grandel, Zach Britton and Kelvin Herrera"
The pen is THE most vital thing to fix. We no longer have Familia, and the pen ERA 5.02, starters 3.61 (and partof that 3.61 is the lousy bullpen). Half-step the pen fix, miss the 2019 playoffs.
Guys
No one loves prospects more than I do.
I loved SS-1B Kenny Hernandez who we gave a million buck bonus to in 2014. We cut him yesterday.
Gimenez is not Hernandez but all he is so far is a proven MINOR LEAGUE PROSPECT... nothing more.
So far he's Dilson Herrera.
Reamuto is a PROVEN MAJOR LEAGUE CATCHER. Proven. He catches, throws, hit .278, 21-HR, 73-RBI last year for the Marlins. He's 27. and has 2 more years of team control.
Am I missing something here?
Mack, maybe they go your route. You make a reasonable case. Like I wrote, if I were management, I'd (besides extending Jake) ask Jake who he thinks would be best. Make your aces happy.
One thing with any catcher, including Realmuto - most age very quickly. Proceed with great care.
IF THE Dodgers give a QO to Grandal I doubt the Mets will try to sign him.
Tom -
so the young catchers aren't talented or experienced enough and the older ones break down too early???
then stop trying to fill this position with a 3 tool player (catch, throw, hit)...
go back to the 50s and 60s when the catcher was a fielder and hit 8th in the lineup, hitting .210-.215 (with a few exceptions like Campy and Yogi)
turn this into the defensive job it should be
All of you make sense; that’s why it’s so hard.
However, if the Dodgers offer Grandal a QO, he should take it. At his age, he can come back next year without limitations and make about $5MM extra dollars out of this because if he refuses, it will hurt his market and I’m sure he knows that. The QO is going to be $19.1MM. I can’t believe how many idiots turned it down last year and then they had a hard time finding a good contract, so I might be shocked again.
I agree with Mack......DEFENSE has to come first behind the plate (includes throwing out baserunners, handling the pitching staff and being fundamentally sound). Consistent offensive production after that is a bonus AND it is crazy hard to find. Look around baseball and you would be hard pressed to find more then a handful of catchers that can do both consistently well.
With that said, I am hesitant to deal what it would take to get Realmuto. Talent wise, he would be in the previous conversation, but I am leery of his age and costs (not a hard NO, but leery).
I wonder if a free agent who is 80% of Realmuto would be enough? Cheaper for sure.....
Ramos is intriguing on the right contract and I agree with the board here that Plawecki is the #2.
Non-tender Travis......waiting for him to develop has been almost as frustrating as waiting for David Wright to come back.
Talking about catchers has me thinking?
Mike Scioscia pain in the Ass knows how to develop, catchers.
How about his catcher they traded to Houston? Martin Maldonaldo
Think the Mets could trade for him?
With Plawecki #2 Nido #3 in Syracuse depth is decent
But id still rather have a Rene Rivera type.
I agree with Thomas, ask Degrom Syndergaard and Wheeler who around would you like to throw too?
Steve
Realmuto is certainly worth exploring but signing the FAs Grandal or Ramos (in that order) is easier and preserves the chips to address other problems.
So we need Jerry Grote and if TC were the mgr. he'd sign him today and play him...gotta have a year or so left in him right Terry? On a more serious note I find it interesting when talking about Jake's great year and comparing this year to Doc's yet they never mentioned Seaver's 71' year or they don't look back that far anymore.
Gary, I do remember that 1971 Seaver year. In m opinion, that one (any of Seaver's best seasons, including his 25-7 in 1969) were tied with 2018 Jake for 2nd best Mets starter season ever.
"Sometimes...
...it is a lot easier to grade and judge ball player's true talent from a small but measurable distance. Being too close can often distort a graders' perceptions."
How I see it...
The Mets need a big league proven catcher, a much better third baseman than is currently available, a new younger lefty starter, and
possibly (depending on how things go this off season like with Fall and Winter Ball) one more late inning reliever or closer.
Getting this all done...
You have to trade talent to get the talent that you need back for your team. So then...
Many posters here like the notion of getting either FA Grandal or Ramos. I don't! The reasons are: With Ramos he is 32 years old (old for a catcher) and he has had more than one serious leg injury of late which could easily take away from his career playing time left. Wilson hits okay homeruns, but his injury issues make him an unwise FA signing.
With Grandal, he is a little bit younger but does not have the same HR capability as Ramos. And offering Grandal a three or four year contract may block the Mets from developing a young catcher of their own. He's good, just not great. The Mets actually need someone a little closer to great.
Ideas...
I might consider trading Lugo and Gimenez to Boston for their top prospect who is forever blocked at third by Rafael Devers (age 21), his name is Michael Chavis.
Reasoning:
Gimenez is the Mets top prospect as well, the Red Sox do not have a viable second baseman under 35 years old coming back in 2019. They need to supplant a much younger player and Gimenez could be that.
The trade could be Lugo and Gimenez for the Red Sox' 3B Michael Chavis and MiLB lefty starter Darwinzon Hernandez (2018 stats AA: 9-5, 3.25 ERA, 134 strikeouts in 107 innings.)
Darwinzon could be their number five starter in 2019, if he plays Winter Ball. Gimenez will only be a wrench in the 2019 Mets middle infield, which needs now to be left as is with McNeil and Rosario who were both rookies this season. Let them finish developing, don't blow it with another promising middle infielder clogging this all up.
The Mets could try Andres Gimenez at third base, but Michael Chavis really is a very good third baseman already with HR power which the Mets desperately need to add in beginning 2019. It's a smarter move.
My second trade addresses the Mets catcher position...
The Marlins will want to be impressed by who they are getting back to trade JT Realmuto. I'd consider offering them: Justin Dunn, Patrick Mazeika, Robert Gsellman, and Gavin Cecchini. Coming back to the Mets could be Realmuto and a promising AA player.
Why trade Lugo and Gsellman?
Because to my vision, I think Tyler Bashlor is a more promising late inning closer than either Gsellman or Lugo. Lugo will have a little difficulty starting here because he would be behind deGrom, Wheeler, and Syndergaard, maybe even Matz. Overall, I felt that Corey Oswalt may have more promise than Lugo starting here. Oswalt needs to refine his pitches, and add maybe two more mph to his fastball. Then he is right there. Lugo had one really good start earlier in the season. He sort of faded some after that I felt. He is closer to his optimum ability currently with not that much room for upgrade, while I feel that Oswalt is a bit more raw but has greater upside starting.
Robert Gsellman is very good, but is relegated here to relief, where in 2018 he was often hot and cold. here's my relief 2019 thoughts:
Long Relief: (L)Daniel Zamora, (R)Drew Smith / Middle Relief: (L) Jason Vargas, (R)Jamie Callahan or Eric Hanhold / Set-Up: (R)Tyler Bashlor, (R)Jenrry Mejia, and Closer: (R)Gerson Bautista
Having a distance from judgement, may be a very shrewd thing.
And for what it matters, here's what I am hoping for in the field for 2019...
1B Alonso, 2B McNeil, SS Rosario, 3B Chavis, LF Cespedes, CF Nimmo, RF Conforto, C Realmuto
Bench: I change it all up for 2019, I lose some of the guys that never quite seem to ever reach their own potential with the Mets. And I add in a little more homerun capability than we saw all of 2018.
INF: Christian Colon, Levi Michael
OF: Jay Bruce (who could also backup first base), Tim Tebow
C: Kevin Plawecki
These five.
Where's Juan Lagares?
Probably out hurt again or traded with Todd Frazier in a package deal. Suggestion: Do not sign any NY Mets Free Agent this off season. No one there deserves a return trip back here. Travis d'Arnaud too. He is a modern day NYY' Pavone! He looks at a sidewalk curb and is out a whole season. This team has to move forward now.
Anonymous, lots of intiguing thoughts about the Mets' potential moves and 2019 line up. Why not reformulate that into an article, and e mail Mack to see if he would post it for you. That way you'd get some interesting group feedback.
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