WHO IN THE METS MINORS CAN REALLY HELP IN 2019?
In two articles last week, wherein I outlined many players
deserving of promotion to higher levels than they played at in 2018, the key
question still remains:
Who in the system can help in 2019, and how much?
Jeff McNeil sure helped in 2018 as he far outperformed
almost everyone’s expectations (yes, even mine, by a little bit)! Who can
help this team, realistically, in 2019?
FIRST BASE:
Peter Alonso – he
ought to help a whole lot. I believe
that, if not traded, he will force his way into the line up and have rookie of
the year potential.
Dominic Smith is no longer a prospect (too many big league at bats)
but could have some upside surprise in 2019 if he gets playing time and has a
rebound season.
SECOND BASE/SHORTSTOP/THIRD
BASE:
Andres Gimenez – he is a guy who could be up here early in the
year, but I am guessing he will force his way into the picture by July 2018.
Gavin Cecchini had largely a lost
season due to injury, and lots of future competition – I am guessing he does
not have much of a major league impact in 2019.
The free agency rules cite the following: "All
Minor League Uniform Player Contracts between either a Major or a Minor League
Club and a player who has not previously signed a contract with a Major or a
Minor League Club shall be for a term of seven Minor League playing
seasons."
Since Gavin signed
in 2012, 2019 would be his 8th season, so unless I am mistaken, he
would become a free agent this off season.
He may well want to try another opportunity, if one looks better.
Levi Michael, if he remains in the organization after his fine season in AA, could
be a call up utility candidate, as could Jack
Reinheimer. Both strike me as
low-impact players if called up.
OUTFIELD:
Tim Tebow,
if he continues to play, he could be a low-impact call up, most likely no earlier than July,
more likely in September. He’d still
have a lot to prove in order to demonstrate he is good enough to be considered a
legitimate major league back up outfielder.
Kevin Kaczmarski seems like
the second coming of Eric Campbell to me, lacking power, and if called up, would
likely also be low impact.
Past-the-prospect-stage Dominic
Smith could be the first outfielder called upon, but it seems like with Nimmo, Conforto, Bruce, Lagares, Jackson,
and even McNeil (once Gimenez is called up) as outfielders,
Smith will have to really hit to force his way in there.
CATCHER:
Tomas Nido and Patrick Mazeika seem like weak back up candidates at least in
early 2019. Maybe their bats become
backup-catcher-ready by mid-2019. An
area of team weakness.
In a pinch in
late 2019, Ali Sanchez might be able
to handle some back up duties.
STARTERS:
Corey Oswalt and Chris Flexen no longer qualify for rookie status, and seem
low impact at best.
More than those two,
Drew Gagnon might be the best spot
starter available for 2019. But would he
be better than Rafael Montero, who
could be back by sometime in May from Tommy John surgery? Too early to tell.
If all goes well for them, Justin Dunn,
Franklyn Kilome and David Peterson could be ready by mid-to-late 2019
as either rotation or pen arms. If lucky, the Mets could get from
them what they got from Gsellman and Lugo in late 2016.
BULLPEN:
On a team with one of the worst major league
bullpens, Daniel Zamora has been very impressive since his
call up, and the lefty might have a solid role in 2019.
Drew Smith
is getting ample opportunity to prove he can cut it – so far, so good. Hard throwing Tyler Bashlor and Gerson Bautista may be able to use their
struggles this season as a springboard to at least modest major league bullpen success
in 2019.
Maybe Joshua Torres (solid in A
ball in 2017 and great in AA, but horrid briefly in AAA) or Corey
Taylor could be of marginal help in 2019, but the Mets would be better
served, in my opinion, to sign a few real quality pen arms and not make the
mistake in 2019, as they did in 2017 and 2018, of over-relying on marginal
bullpen arms.
CONCLUSION:
Alonso and
Gimenez are the cream of the crop
for 2019 prospects in terms of expected major league impact. Several pitchers may have an impact in the
pen, and a few in the starting rotation later in 2019.
This team needs to avoid the rash of
injuries that plagued it in 2017 and 2018 in order to not continue to rush
not-yet-fully-prepared guys to the majors.
16 comments:
The Nationals rushed a not so ready minor leaguer in Soto (remember it should have been the ready Robles they call up but he was injured)
It’s baseball... do they not see a 95 mph fastball in the minors? Do they not field a exit velocity ball hit at 90 plus in the minors? It is not a contact sport it does nothing to theee players but make them more hungry to stay there or they were never going to succeed anyway
Eddie, I am all for the contrarian view - when you have top prospects, move them FAST, and if they have some failure, if they are good enough, they should adjust, and be major league ready quicker.
I was glad the Mets promoted Kelenic from the GCL to the Appalachian League as quickly as they did this year. He struggled a bit after his promotion, but then adjusted and finished very strong, and now, in my opinion, is very ready to jump to Columbia to start 2019. Push him fast - let him be the next Soto or Acuna.
That would take a change in the front office and I'm still betting the official job goes to Ricco.
Well, then, we'll see Kelenic in 2025, Reese :)
Morning Guys:
As always I enjoy reading your comments.
Thomas I like your thinking on pushing kelenic!
But this teams fan base cannot I repeat cannot handle prospects struggling.
The wolves were ready to give up on Rosario,at the all-star break,foolish
Id like them to play level per level,if Kelenic is ready for low A,then great but don't rush kids cause of other teams?
On the other hand Gimenez gets half a season in AA and plays well in AAA he should be available in mid august.
But they should still spend there energy on 5 guys to sign.
Miller-Britton-Herrera-Ramos and Victor Victor
Steve
Tom -
We have raided the top levels of the pipeline pretty well this past year.
McNeil, Bashlor, and Drew Smith are here and I don't see anyone else that was on the 25-man prior to expanded rosters that can help in 2019, prior to the All Star break.
You are right about both McNeil and Gimenez. They will be in the starting lineup then.
Mack, I agree.
Steve, my point, using Rosario as an example, is to have pushed him faster thru levels. Exposed by higher competition, realize what isn't working sooner, fix it sooner, get up here sooner.
Let's say if pushed faster to a higher level, Rosario hit .220 and fanned a lot. Maybe he would have accelerated development of his plate discipline and pitch recognition.
Tom -
I will say this...
I predict one of the follow relievers to blossom and bloom in 2019:
Ryan, Blackham, Roseboom, Villines, Poboreyko
I will say that I am one of these wolves on Rosario and Nimmo.
And I am still waiting to see star in their game. Rosario is a slap hitting Middle infielder who is a bad fielder by all metrics. Nimmo had a great half, let see both put together full season...
I do not believe either is a star but both may be a solid MLB-er. And I welcome being wrong as I don't root for my assets to fail. But Based on the position that Rosario is currently playing he is not the future at SS with guys like Gimenez and Maurico potentially on the way. He either becomes the stud projected or prepare for life at another position. You are not owed anything for arriving first.
As far as pushing prospects, i am a believer of pushing not rushing prospects. If you show dominance then move them. they dont need X numbers of at bats at certain level before they can be challenged. At 21 we all felt we could take on the world so I never understood the ruining a KID concept. Football yes since a 20 may not be physically mature enough to handle a 25 year old professional. But as I repeat this is not a contact sport and they face the same speed in pitches and exit velocity in the field.
So if Kelenic, Mauricio and Ventos prove they can succeed push them, Challenge them... (the ones that can are special)
Let them show they are not ready vs having the front office who have proven to be incompetent decide their fates...
My favorites there, Mack, to blossom are Ryan, Roseboom and Villines. Blackham has to harness his control more (which seemed to be happening late in the season), and Poboreyko (27 next year) needs to tighten up control, too, although in his two seasons since leaving indy ball he has been mostly very good.
Villines has been very walk-free and who wouldn't love his last 4 outings in 2018: 8 innings, 4 hits, 14 Ks. An amazing 10:1 career K/BB ratio.
Roseboom is very tough on lefties and 27 for 34 in career saves.
Ryan had a really fine 3rd season at age 23 and feels much like Drew Smith a year ago.
Eddie, Nimmo has a great on base % right around .400 and good power. I could see him moving to star status in 2019.
Tom
I see Nimmo as a Garder type MLBer... not a star but potential contributor on a first division team...
I think "The Pounder" is the next big addition to the major league lineup (from our minor league system) and due to financial reasons, I don't think we see him in NY until late Spring 2019.
Gimenez may force his way into the conversation, but I don't see him as a full time option until 2020 (maybe a cup of coffee late in 2019?)
Outside of those two, I would look at positions where there is a major need, like Catcher or in the Bullpen (if they aren't addressed in Free Agency).
Maybe Gerson Bautista?
Oh and I agree, Tom.......sadly, I think Gavin moves on this off season.
Mike, we agree on Alonso, but on Gimenez, his great glove and speed make his developing bat easier to tolerate sooner in the season than cup of coffee time. My guess? July.
Bautista gives up a lot of hits - he needs to refine his repertoire further - my guess? He made a lot of that needed progress this year.
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