Good Morning, Mets' Fans!
As you read the title of this article, you might be wondering what I am talking about. No, this isn't an Orthodontic Journal article about Michael Strahan's front teeth, nor is it a piece intended for This Old House magazine and winterizing your home. What I am referring to is the gap between our current Mets' team and what it will take to return to relevance (i.e. the playoffs, meaningful baseball games in late September or at the very least not getting eliminated from the conversation before Labor Day).
I am not a New York Giants fan, but I did appreciate the job that former coach Bill Parcells did during his tenure with the team. Bill was famous for a variety of quotes that I find quite relevant today, despite the time that has passed and the differences between football and baseball. On that topic, Bill was credited with saying that if you want to win a championship, you have to start by being the best in your own division before you can worry about overtaking anyone else (paraphrased, of course).
***Yes, both sports have other ways of getting into the playoffs, but generally speaking, if you want to be the BEST team in your sport, it starts in your own back yard and in our case, that is the National League East.
As I write this piece, there are only a handful of games left in the regular season and our division has already been clinched by the Atlanta Braves. So, I think it is close enough to review the basic standings and to reveal just how far the Mets will need to go to "close the gap", so to speak.
Consider the following standings;
Team W - L GB Run Diff
Atlanta 89-68 --- +105
Washington 80-78 9.5 +88
Philadelphia 78-79 11 -32
New York 73-84 16 -32
Miami 62-95 27 -219
Reviewing the listed standings, it is pretty clear that the Braves have earned the right to represent our division in the NL playoffs. They have the best record and it is supported by a positive run differential and corresponding "expected record" only one game off of the pace they are setting. That does not include the fact that they have an impressive stable of young players that are powering their success, so I do not see them taking a step backward as we move forward in time.
The preseason favorites (Nationals) underachieved yet again and will finish a distant second to the Braves, while missing the playoffs at the same time. This is despite their run differential hinting at more success then they have enjoyed to this point, but this team has consistently failed to live up to the hype so I am not surprised. They are also in what feels like a transition period, so it remains to be seen if they will rebound or continue their slow slide into mediocrity. Either way, they are no longer the "hunted" team and should not be the Mets' main focus.
The Phillies had a nice run for most of the year, but started to fade about a month ago. If you look at their run differential, that is also not a surprise and it hints at a young team that is on the rise but not quite ready for prime time, yet. With another off season under their belt and some rumored "big ticket" free agent acquisitions, they SHOULD be a contender next year.
The Marlins are horrendous, but that has been the plan all along. The team was torn down to the studs in anticipation of a multiyear "rebuild", so they will not likely be in the picture in the next season or two.
We are all well aware of the Mets' up and down season, along with the potential for success that their roster presents (I plan on using a different article on a different day to delve further into that topic). However, if you take a quick look at the standings, the Mets have sixteen games to make up on the Braves, while simultaneously passing the Nationals and Phillies in the standings. Furthermore, the Mets' 2018 run differential is -137 runs when compared to Atlanta's computation, so clearly there is much work to do.
Looking a bit closer, the Mets have a winning record against everyone in the division (32-22) EXCEPT for the Braves, who have simply OWNED the Mets this year (4-13 with two games left to play).
If we agree that Atlanta is the front runner for the 2019 season, then the Mets have to figure out a way to hold serve against the rest of the division while getting MUCH better against the Braves. Simply playing ".500 baseball" this year would have closed the sixteen game gap down to a much more manageable six games!
Keep this information in mind as the Mets transition into the off season and they begin to address the issues with their roster, etc.
6 comments:
Good article, Mike.
I think the Mets have already gotten a lot better with McNeil, the emergence of ace Zach Wheeler to give the Mets a formidable rotation (best in baseball, maybe). Nimmo has legitimately emerged, Comfort has greatly recovered, and Bruce is doing adequately again. Rosario could be a borderline All Star talent next year. Gimenez and Alonso are looking.
This team, though, needs major upgrades at catcher and in the pen, even if Mejia comes back on fire. Fix those two areas and we could win the division in 2019. And even win a World series with the pitching.
Looming, not looking.
Agree, Tom.....in addition to beefing up the pen and finding a catcher that can hit and field/throw, I see CF as a void in need of attention.
I like Nimmo in LF and Conforto in RF moving forward (Cespedes will be delayed and he is likely going to be a DH before too much longer, i.e. trade bait), but CF
is wide open.
Too bad Lagares could not stay healthy and figure out how to hit consistently.
Mike, it seems almost foolish of me to think Lagares can stay healthy enough to even make it to Opening Day. But trying to assume he won't get hurt before the end of April again, I am comfortable with Nimmo, Conforto and Bruce being the 3 starting outfielders next season, with Lagares as # 4. I think the starting 3 would be adequate defensively, and above average offensively.
All we've been hearing since this latter day Generation K arrived is how the pitching will carry the club. Ask Jacob deGrom about that. Pitching is great to have but for once I'd like to see them put some emphasis on SCORING RUNS. Also recognize with guys like Rosario, Nimmo and McNeil you don't have to hit the ball into the parking lot in order to have a positive impact on the outcome of the game. I'll take more high OBP guys.
As much as I hated them, the 90's Cardinals scored plenty of runs without much power, at all (Jack Clark and then.....)
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