Tom Brennan - CAN JARRED KELENIC BE LIKE RONALD ACUNA JR?
Jarred Kelenic comes with very high pedigree - 6th overall pick in 2018, and highest HS bat pick.
Ronald Acuna, Jr. was an almost passed over international prospect, bonus wise. Only Atlanta ($100,000) and KC ($50,000) offered him a signing bonus in 2015. A lot of people struck out on him.
Amazingly, the lad, who has several cousins in the majors, has had 25 doubles and 25 homers in a stunning MLB rookie season at the time of this writing, through just 97 big league games. To observers, a budding superstar.
SO: Can Jarred Kelenic be the Braves' Ronald Acuna, Jr?
In other words, can Kelenic be MATATA to Acuna's HAKUNA?
Let's consider:
At age 17, Acuna played in the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League and hit .269/.380/.438.
At age 18 (most) in 2018, Kelenic similarly played in the GCL and App Leagues and hit .286/.371/.468 in slightly more ABs.
At age 18, Acuna was in just 42 games in Full A ball and was .312/.392/.429, apprantl due to injury.
Based on that Acuna step up in his year 2, I have no doubt Kelenic also jumps to Full A Columbia in his upcoming 2nd season in 2019. Unlike Acuna, he should play 120 + games next season, and in my view should split the season between St Lucie and Columbia.
At age 19, Acuna rocked a full year in High A, AA, and AAA - playing (for the minors) an Iron Man 139 games, and smashing at .325/.374/.522. He only was in High A ball for 28 games at the start of that 2017 season, and quickly moved right along.
Based on the Acuna year 3 step up, I believe Kelenic will be in AA and AAA in 2020 - and could even show up with the Mets, unless he is given Super 2 (a/k/a not-so-super-too) treatment.
At least, that is how I see it going.
Kelenic is a little bigger and has more speed.
I see a star coming to the Mets. And FAST.
So, in answer to the question I posed, "Can Jarred Kelenic be like Ronald Acuna, Jr.?", I see the answer as ABSOLUTELY! And, in the not-too-distant future.
HAKUNA MATATA - IT'S A TROUBLE FREE PHILOSOPHY.
14 comments:
Morning
Not sure if Kelenic can be the Mets Acuna jr?
But id like them to spend and sign Victor Victor Mesa.
And see if he can be the Mets version of Acuna
Steve
Tom Brennan - slow down.
It's far too early to predict what Kelenic will be, let alone compare to Ronald Acuna who debuted at 20, just a year older than Kelenic who turned 19 in July and is unlikely to reach the majors prior to 2021.
Acuna appears to have somewhat better tools, rated 60 by MLB Pipline to Kelenic's 55 which also includes 55 speed - 5 less than Acuna.
Let's just let Kelenic be Kelenic and see what he does next season and the one thereafter before anointing him 5-tool superstar worthy of a 60-70 MLB Pipeline rating. Thus far, he's barely gotten his feet wet in pro ball.
Tom -
Good morning.
You know I was high on the Kelenic pick even though my 'odds on favorite was Travis Swaggerty.
Acuna is one of those rare superstars that develop as their career goes on. Think deGrom.
I currently project Kelenic somewhere between Conforto and Nimmo.
Thus far, Kelenic (from commentator feedback so far) has not earned the right to be compared to Acuna Jr. - but my point is, he COULD turn out to be that good - and that possibility is great.
Splitting hairs, but Acuna is actually 19 months older than Kelenic, so he is closer to two years older than Kelenic than 1 year. That is also a factor, and at that young age a fairly significant one. On opening day 2020, Kelenic will be 20 years and 8 months old. I would not put it past the Mets to see him as soon as Super 2 that year, but more likely at midseason 2020 if he plays healthy in 2019 and 2020.
Mack, you say Kelenic projects between Conforto and Nimmo - but at this point, who of those 2 is your favorite? Nimmo or Conforto? Nimmo has had one heck of a season, so much so that he could turn out to be the better of the two players.
And yes, let's get Victor Victor Mesa. Let's be THAT team this time around.
Tom -
Kelenic was born 7-16-99 and thus cannot be what you say - 20 years and 8 months on opening day 2020.
Basically you predict Kelenic's going to reach the majors at same pace as Mike Trout.
If you're interested in a bona fide fast tracker from 2018 high school picks, it's 3rd Baseman Nolan Gorman of the Cardinals who hit .291, with 17 homers and .949 OPS between rookie ball and Low A.
Kelenic will turn 20 in July 2019 - 8 months after that is opening day 2020, give or take a few weeks.
Gorman is a big bopper, all right. Hopefully, in the long run, Kelenic will be better, but time will tell.
Gorman has no speed apparently (caught 5 of 6 times) and in his last 10 games was 4 for 37 with 19 Ks, even though that was at a challenging Full A level at just 18 years of age, so he has a clear speed deficit to Kelenic, clearly, and a possible K problem.
Kelenic had his slump in rookie ball, but when interviewed, indicated that he was squaring up a lot of balls without luck during that stretch.
Kelenic doesn't have Acuna's power
The Mets don’t have the International Signing bonus availability to land a top fish. The O’s lead the way with $6.5 and the Marlins are second at $4.3. Then come a few other teams before the Mets $2.5. Sorry, reality check on that happening.
Tom, while I mostly agree with you and it’s very hard to constantly have a ready topic to write about everyday, comparing our kids to major leaguers has been around since sand was on beaches but it sucks. And, it never works out.
Check these two sites:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-managers-perspective-mickey-callaway-on-his-first-year-in-the-big-apple/
http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/09/20/klawchat-9-20-18/
Tom
Nimmo is developing into a fine starting outfielder but, since the All Star break Conforto is proving that if the all star game would be voted on and played at the end of the season, he would be a starter there.
Nice work, Tom......I have high hopes for JK and it would be awesome if he could
play CF at the major league level (which is a trouble spot for our system, IMO).
I think 2021 is a reasonable target, but that would mean continuing his aggressive assignment protocol (which started this year and looks to be a the new normal for our system).
At that point, you should have Nimmo in LF and Conforto in RF.......
Reese, Kelenic and Acuna's power #'s were similar their first year - I am not giving up on Kelenic developing plus power - heck, look at Nimmo.
Mack, I have a "last 30 days" article scheduled in terms of Nimmo and Conforto (and others). Both make us smile much.
The big question: will Kelenic become the next JEFF MCNEIL? LOL
TexasGus, I like to dream early! Kelenic will some day have the nickname Killer Kelenic - and I don't mean rally killer!
Mike, by mid 2020, if healthy, Kelenic will turn 21 and have (hopefully) 1,000 + professional plate appearances. Hopefully, he will justify that "best HS hitter in draft" label and show that those are enuf PAs to play in the bigs.
In this organization he most definitely has McNeil potential -- left to languish in the minors until he's 26 :)
Reese, let's hope the philosophy of this organization turns dramatically better going forward, and guys will no longer languish. I personally want to see Kelenic in a Mets uniform before he is 21 - so he has until mid July 2020 to pull that off.
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