There’s an old axiom attributed to Branch Rickey that luck
is the residue of design. That
philosophy may make some sense when you’re talking about someone’s success in business
or their chosen career by working hard, being in the right place at the right
time or identifying something unique that consumers wanted. However, sometimes bad luck is just that.
Take for example former first rounder Dominic Smith. Yes, he did himself no favor by arriving late
to his first spring training to impress his new manager. That’s on him. However, the foot injury that followed was simply
a matter of bad luck. When it happened,
any vapor-thin hope of him supplanting scrap heap pick Adrian Gonzalez was
obliterated.
He followed that up with a somewhat lackluster season
offensively in AAA for the Las Vegas 51s.
Although he’d gotten into better shape than ever before, the opposition
woke up to his pull tendencies and started shifting on him regularly. He has not yet figured out how to combat that
defensive alignment. As a result his
batting average plummeted from .330 in 2017 to just .258. More alarmingly the power was down and the strikeouts
were up. He had 76 in 337 ABs whereas
last year he had 87 in 457 ABs. Then he
hit 16 HRs and drove in 76. This year he
has just 6 round trippers and 41 RBIs.
The Mets brought Smith back from AAA where he’d been forced
to learn to play the outfield on the fly due to the emergence of Pete
Alonso. When injuries forced their hand
they reached into AAA and brought him up to the big club where he made a
game-costing error which set back his future opportunities with the big
club.
Like he did last year, he seemed to show more HR power than
was advertised and recently put a couple over the fence. He got rewarded with a rare start at 1B, his
natural position, to see how he handled it.
Going into next season the Mets are indeed unsettled there with Wilmer
Flores, Jay Bruce and Pete Alonso as competitors for the position.
Then Lady Luck showed her vengeful side once again and Dom Smith was shelved with an injury, tightness in the groin area
perhaps from running out a fielder’s choice. Fortunately this time it appears to be minor and with his pinch hit yesterday he's up to .333 since his mid-August recall and this September recall in his very limited playing opportunities.
The Mets on the whole are considered by many to be unlucky
in terms of injuries. To be sure they’ve
had more than their fair share, including DL stints this year by David Wright, Rafael
Montero, Travis d’Arnaud, Anthony Swarzak, Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Yoenis
Cespedes, Jason Vargas, Kevin Plawecki, Juan Lagares, Michael Conforto and
others. Still, they use that excuse of
simply being bad luck which results in their second straight season of a losing
record.
However, their mirror opposites out in the left coast, the
Los Angeles Dodgers, have had 38 separate DL stints to the Mets 28. They sit just 1.5 games behind the Rockies
for the Western Division crown with 3 weeks to make up that ground. It’s got to be more than luck that propelled
them near the front of their division, because losing players to injury didn’t
derail their plans.
Therein lies the difference and brings us back to Branch
Rickey and the residue of design. What did the Mets do to plan for the
probability that some of their key players would miss significant chunks of the
season and what did they do when it actually happened?
Let’s start off with a positive note. The injuries gave at-bats to people who
otherwise were role players on this team – Brandon Nimmo and Wilmer Flores –
and both have flourished. However, that’s
where the good news ends.
Instead of looking to acquire longer term solutions from
other clubs by executing trades, the club did what it’s done and failed while
doing for each of the past few years – they went scrap heap picking. We already mentioned Adrian Gonzalez. Then they got the released Jose Bautista who
foundered around the Mendoza line for way too long.
Then they thought they had lightning in a bottle with the released Austin Jackson who started off absolutely on fire. However, since that hot start he’s gone just .213 since mid-August. And there are whispers they want to bring him back! Then there’s Jose Reyes. Enough said.
Then they thought they had lightning in a bottle with the released Austin Jackson who started off absolutely on fire. However, since that hot start he’s gone just .213 since mid-August. And there are whispers they want to bring him back! Then there’s Jose Reyes. Enough said.
The Dodgers, by contrast, went out and obtained both Manny
Machado and Brian Dozier. They added
veteran closer Ryan Madson to support Kenley Janson. (Granted, Madson is having a bad year this
year but has a solid track record). They
have their own feel-good role player story with the slugging of Max Muncy. The difference is they went out to get real
players to address real needs and are within a whisper of first place. Do you see a design difference?
I recently went through a debate with some Mets fans
regarding the somewhat encouraging signs from the latter part of the
season. They were celebrating it and I
was suggesting that it is, in the long run, a bad thng. Now I’m not necessarily talking about tanking
to secure top draft picks because for every Bryce Harper there’s a Gavin
Cecchini. No, I’m talking about playing
the folks who could possibly be a part of next year’s team from whom you don’t
have a lot of data and eyeball observation as to whether or not they’re viable
for the future.
Towards that end, I can see the rationale behind playing Jay
Bruce at 1B. It’s less stressful to his
plantar fasciitis-affected feet, it increases his flexibility for defensive
alignments and it opens up trade possibilities to other clubs who may be full
in the OF but need someone capable of playing 1B. I get that.
I also get the financial rationale (though I don’t agree with it) of
waiting out the service time clock for Pete Alonso.
What I don’t get is Austin Jackson playing or Jose Reyes
playing. I want to see Dom Smith when he’s
healthy. I want to see Wilmer Flores’
bat in the lineup. If you have to play
both of them in the OF, so be it. If you
want to sit McNeil against a tough lefty as was done last week, play Flores at
2B. Now is the time to evaluate since
you are not going anywhere. Yes, it’s
nice to win ballgames but it’s a marathon and not a sprint. For once it would be good to see some
planning taking place.
8 comments:
“Born Under a Bad Sign” was an old Cream song that applies to the Mets.
I hope it is changing, finally, with the Jeff McNeil Lucky Charm and the rotation acting like a flotation device for the team.
When considering Peter Alonso vs. Dom Smith’s mid-40’s season-long RBI totals, consider that on July 19, Pete exploded from his Vegas slump. The last 41 games, he hit .317 with 15 doubles, 15 HRs, and 44 RBIs. Some guys end up with 15 doubles, 15 HRs and 44 RBIs for a whole season and we try to rationalize why they're a prospect - Pete did the above in 1/4 of a full major league season.
The Mets realistically could not have known that the McNeil/Vargas/Wheeler/Matz effect would have this team suddenly be as good as most teams in the majors, or they might have kept Familia. His presence in the pen might have won them 5 more games, and have them still on the fringe of a division run.
But, suddenly, this team looks to have real potential for 2019 if they get aggressive.
That's a huge if beyond the realm of the current braintrust.
I just threw together a 2019 article for 11 AM today on the positive case for 2019.
An old blues aficionado like me mustvpoint out that Cream covered Albert King who first recorded that Mets anthem.
Reese/Tom -
We don't have much positional depth on this team.
Middle infielders seem to be being developed into a category that we aren't going to have to worry about finding a new SS or 2Bman in quite awhile.
1B has become that too.
Normally, I would say that the middle field will get too crowded when Gimenez emerges, but he, Rosario, or McNeil can be moved to third.
None of this can happen at first.
Flores is inadequate at all positions he plays. Bruce becomes less of a defensive outfield factor every year he plays. Smith is an ex-minor league Gold Glove first baseman who will never make the grade in right. And Alonso is a one position player.
Short term - Smith, Bruce, and Flores can handle the duties when they aren't playing another position or sitting on the bench.
Long term - Alonso should be moved while the fire is hot.
(another 2 good versions were Hendrix and SRV)
Mack, we'll have a good team if we "let Jimi take over."
As a kid the only way I cold distinguish between Ricky & O'Malley was the bow tie -- still can't.
Mack, I have never seen a player (incl. myself) who could not learn how to be at least adequate playing first base. It's just hard to predict the timeframe I suppose.
The Mets need homerun hitters. Peter Alonso looks like he could be one of those solutions for that. If me, I hang in there with Peter for completing his development at first base. Two words..."Winter Ball" with Keith and the 1000 cats in tow. Or someone like Keith who has played first base well in the field.
One blog I read today elsewhere had Andres Gimenez up and a NY Mets in 2020. What is that person dreaming? I'd suggest Winter Ball for Andres merely to expose him now to better pitching and to see if he could be ready sooner than 2020. Get a read on him in other words.
Jeff McNeil played a very impressive third base last night. Moves about 4X faster than most third basemen in MLB and has all the glove, the range and the arm. The guy is an athlete.
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