Mike Freire - Fleeting Thoughts (Mid-Spring Training Edition)

Good Morning, Mets' fans!

As I put this article together, it is roughly the midpoint of the Spring Training schedule and things are generally moving along at a somewhat brisk pace.  There have been the usual injuries and surprise performances (good and bad) as Mickey and his staff inch closer to the 25 man roster that will start the season on March 28th in Washington DC.

As a fan, it is hard to look at the team's performance and not draw any conclusions from their actual record. Once the regular season is underway, wins and losses are really the only thing that matters.  However, during Spring Training games, wins and losses are much farther down the list of what is important, coming in well behind "staying healthy" and "working on various aspects of the game".  So, I am not overly worried that the team is bouncing around .500 so far, at least not as much as some of the injuries that have taken place.

What I am ready for is the start of the regular season!  This season has a different feel then the last few years, at least for me.  The team has some quality depth and it appears much more capable offensively, which should work well with our pitching staff in a division that appears to be quite balanced.

So, let's get on with the rest of the article.

1.  Not to pick on a division rival, but I am not overly concerned about the Phillies and their recent signing of Bryce Harper.  Yes, Bryce is a talented player and he likely makes the team a bit better then they were.  But, is he the difference between a "solid" team (80 to 82 Wins) and a "contender" (90+ Wins)?

IF (very large IF) you remove Bryce's MONSTER 2015 season from the equation, then the other six full seasons of his career are good, but not terrifying.  Take a look at the average of his "other seasons" below and see for yourself;

.269/.376/.489  (.856 OPS)

3.05 WAR (including a negative dWAR, which is getting worse by the year)

I know you are not supposed to pick and choose from a player's statistics to suit your argument, but could 2015 end up being his "career year" and he will simply be "pretty good" moving forward?  I don't think that is too far fetched at all, meaning we are relying on what he has done 86% of the time in the past.  Furthermore, you also have to subtract the statistics from the player he is replacing, so his overall "impact" will likely be two or three more wins and not the needle moving change that he media wants you to believe.

Personally, I think that Dallas Keuchel would have been a better fit for a Phillies team that gave up the most runs in the division last year, (other then the Marlins who are not going to contend this year), but that's just my opinion.

2. Very sad news last week about franchise icon Tom Seaver.  Even though he is still very much alive, his Dementia diagnosis almost feels like he has passed, doesn't it?  I have had minimal exposure to this condition, but from what I have seen it is horribly difficult for everyone to deal with (especially those closest to the person who are charged with keeping the affected individual safe).

Several writers on this blog have already done a great job throwing some "love" his way and it also seems that the team will follow suit (which is long overdue, in my opinion). On this topic, I decided to take a look at his career statistics since I was a bit on the young side for a good portion of his time with the Mets.

Over a 20 year career, Tom AVERAGED the following statistics;

32.35 Starts
239 Innings Pitched
15.5 Wins and 10.3 Losses
3.04 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP

That would be an excellent season in any era, never mind consistently for two decades!  He was truly an "ace" and he is more then deserving of the accolades that he received along with his place in Cooperstown.

3.  I am trying to temper my enthusiasm about Mets' first base prospect Pete Alonso, also known as "The Pounder", but it is getting more difficult by the day.  Pete has been tearing the proverbial cover off of the baseball this Spring, to the point that Red Sox manager Alex Cora tabbed him as "the best bat in Florida" (pretty high praise).  Plus, he has been holding his own defensively which was most critics biggest concern about his major league prospects.

I am not sure if he will break camp with the team, or not.  I STILL think that it would be irresponsible of the franchise (i.e. BVW) to bring him to Queens right away which would cost them an additional year of control financially.  If his career continues on it's current "arc" then that extra year could be worth several million dollars. This issue may also be mitigated by how well Dominic Smith is currently playing, meaning Dom can hold down the fort for a few weeks while the "service time issue" is taken care of.

Some have argued that this strategy could somehow cost the team a playoff berth, etc.  You are talking about roughly a dozen games, so it is possible.  But, with Dom playing well it isn't likely to translate into the loss of "three or four wins" and the upside is much more valuable (the extra year of control, plus the ability to showcase Dom for a potential future trade).

4.  Lastly, it seems like the team is more potent offensively if we use the team's performance during the Spring Training games to date.  Here is an early stab at what the Mets' lineup could look like on Opening Day, followed by what the lineup could look like after the arrival of "The Pounder" a few weeks later;

                              1. Nimmo - LF           1.  Nimmo - CF
                              2. McNeil - 3B           2.  McNeil - LF
                              3. Cano - 2B             3.  Cano - 2B
                              4. Conforto - RF        4.  Alonso - 1B
                              5. Ramos - C             5.  Conforto - RF
                              6. Smith - 1B            6.  Lowrie - 3B
                              7. Rosario - SS          7.  Ramos - C
                              8. Lagares - CF         8.  Rosario - SS
                              9.  Pitcher                9.  Pitcher

OK, so the initial lineup on the left is pretty "solid" and it represents an upgrade over some of the lineups the team trotted out last year.  However, due to a return from injury and the much discussed "service time" issue, the lineup on the right has a couple of different names listed and it is more the just "solid" in my opinion.

Seriously, take a long look at the lineup on the right and tell me where the "easy outs" might reside? Plus, you also move Dominic Smith and Juan Lagares to the bench, which only adds to the overall strength of the roster in the form of quality depth (for a change). 

Health and normal performance permitting (fingers crossed), the lineup on the right should score a lot more runs then last year's team.  Couple that with a talented pitching staff and a much improved bullpen and I think we are just a strong as anyone else in our division (on paper). 

Well, Mets' fans, I should probably put the Kool Aid down and temper my enthusiasm just a bit.  But, I will leave you with one last tidbit on my way out.......we could also have Yoenis Cespedes available before the season is over.  Imagine having his bat mixed into this line up?