Reese Kaplan -- A Dead Weight Trade Test for BVW

While some folks may not agree with all of the moves made by Brodie Van Wagenen, the fact is that he’s been far more active on all fronts than his predecessor.  He’s made trades, signed free agents, used the Rule 5 draft, reinforced the bench and signed a great many major leaguers to minor league contracts to keep his roster flexible while minimizing costs.  The results are yet to be seen but no one can deny he’s been busy.

Rumor has it that BVW is now looking to trade Juan Lagares with the recent addition of Carlos Gomez and backups Rajai Davis, Rymer Liriano and Gregor Blanco slated for AAA.  In addition you have carryovers like Kevin Kaczmarski, possibly Tim Tebow and others looking for minor league OF at-bats.

The question for today is which contracts are the most unmovable on the Mets.  Here are the contenders:

• Todd Frazier – one year -- $9 million
• Juan Lagares – one year, plus a buyout option – total $9.5 million (or a $9.5 million salary for 2020)
• Jason Vargas – one year, plus a buyout option – total $10 million (or an $8 million salary for 2020)

                     

PC - Ed Delany

In the case of Todd Frazier, you have a veteran third baseman who is a competent fielder and home run hitter.  He surprised a great many people back in his Cincinnati Reds days when he was a 20 HR type of hitter who won the All-Star Game Home Run Derby.  He then followed it up with a 35 HR season with the Reds before hitting free agency and signing with the White Sox where his first year he hit 40 HRs.  It’s been a downhill slide since then with 27 HRs being his high-water mark.  What’s more disturbing is his batting average which, for the last two years, has been a paltry .213.  On the plus side, his reputation as a positive clubhouse presence may be attractive to a team with a great many younger players who need a role model, but $9 million is a hefty price to pay in an era when the contradiction of home runs being desirable yet not highly valued seems to have evolved.

PC - Mack

Juan Lagares is one of the more polarizing players among fans.  No one disputes his amazing defensive abilities both to track down balls in the air and his usually golden arm adept at nailing people who attempt to take an extra base on him.  His offensive game has never been a strength.  Even in his 2014 season in which he hit a respectable .281 with 4 HRs, 47 RBIs and 13 SBs.  However, it was again the strength of his defense that resulted in an eye-popping 5.3 WAR for that season and what duped Sandy Alderson into offering up the ever-increasing contract.  That strategy is particularly flawed because as someone nears the end of his deal he’s far more expensive, thus resulting in the inability to trade him away, yet that was a familiar method Alderson used for many years.  Injuries, of course, derailed Lagares’ career.  He’s never sniffed anywhere near that kind of production again after inking his lucrative deal, never topping 1.8 WAR. 

The man everyone loves to hate, Jason Vargas, was another iffy transaction by BVW’s predecessor.  He was arguably the worst pitcher in team history who continued to get the ball every 5^th day for the first half of the season.  (Don’t bring up guys who were bounced from the rotation – who was worse who kept getting the ball handed to him?)  However, much to everyone’s surprise, Vargas pitched to a career average 3.60 ERA for the 2^nd half (actually better than his career mark).  Many people are not willing to forgive what he did to lose games in the first half and advocate signing a Gio Gonzalez or others.  Then there are the fans who point to the strong finish as indicative of the former All-Star level of performance possible once healthy and getting into the swing of learning the National League.  The point, however, is that no one is likely to want to pay the man $10 million (other than the departed Alderson).

In order for BVW to move these contracts he is looking at either taking on someone else’s equally undesirable contract.  That approach would mean staying essentially payroll neutral.  Another approach not often used in the past is to pay down the contracts.  If you offered to kick in say $3 million Todd Frazier or Juan Lagares or Jason Vargas, then they become respectively $6 million, $6.5 million and $7 million obligations for the receiving team.  Those price points are much more reasonable based upon past performances and thus would make them much more marketable.  Now we don’t know if it was Alderson or the Wilpons who didn’t understand the concept of sunk costs and refused to pay down salaries, but $7 million of salary relief in the case of Vargas, for example, would help fund the lion’s share of what it would cost to land a Gio Gonzalez.  If he was able to do so with all three players, he would have $19.5 million of payroll dollars to play with. 

Of course, with Frazier being hurt, Brandon Nimmo sick, Jeff McNeil nursing his scrape (and yet to get a hit), and not much attractive depth behind Vargas, it may be even more difficult to make any of these transactions.  Then again, that’s why BVW is paid the big bucks.