Mike Freire - Which Zack Will We Get This Year?

If you have read any of my articles over the past few years, you would likely label me as a "moderate", meaning that my views tend to reside in the middle of most issues.  In addition, I also try to find positive things to highlight during the various discussions that take place on this blog, even when that is very difficult to do (defending Sandy towards the end of his tenure, for example). 

So, when I write a "critical" piece on a Mets' player, it may seem a bit out of character when compared to my usual contributions to this site.

PC - Ernest Dove

For some reason, Zack Wheeler has always been one of those players for me as a fan and as a writer.  Perhaps it is due to the fact that he arrived with a TON of hype after being obtained from the Giants in exchange for Carlos Beltran in the middle of the 2011 season (eight years ago already) and has largely failed to live up to the same. Or as a fan of efficiency, Zack's "wild ways" on the mound have always bugged me.  

You know, the 4 inning start that takes 98 pitches and ends with a "small village" of base runners each inning which in turn burns out the bull pen.  In fact, my brother calls a poor start by any of the Mets' pitchers "pulling a Wheeler", which says a lot.

Better still (sarcasm alert), Zack hasn't exactly been a model of durability since his major league debut in 2013.  If you credit him with one half of a season in 2013, he has had the opportunity to pitch in five and one half seasons through the 2018 season, which would amount to roughly 165 starts if we use 30 starts as a benchmark for a "full season".  

Zack has started 95 games during that span, which amounts to just under 58% of the aforementioned total.  Sure, it may not be his fault that he missed some time with a variety of injures, but that's the point.  It would be more then fair to label him a bit "injury prone", despite how the 2018 season turned out.

Perhaps I am a bit cranky today, but what spurred the idea for this article was a recent interview that took place with Zack, where they discussed his impending free agency for the 2020 season.  He said "all the right things" about wanting to come back to the Mets next year and that he wanted to remain a part of the young pitching staff, etc.  He also made a point to caution everyone listening that it was going to cost some serious money for him to sign a contract extension in order to forgo free agency.

I don't expect anyone to play for free and Zack is entitled to ask for whatever he thinks he is worth.  BUT, this is coming from someone who has missed 42% of his starts over the last few years, but still cashed all of his checks totaling more then 10 million dollars along the way!  It just rubbed me the wrong way, especially since he has had exactly one half of a good season so far (see below) which means he has a lot left to prove in my opinion.  Plus, he was born and raised in Georgia which makes him a closet Braves fan, but that's a topic for a different day.

So, let's take a look at his basic statistics from 2013 through 2017 for some perspective.

66 Starts (out of a possible 135, or just under half)

21-23 Record

371.67 Innings Pitched (5.67 per start)

3.90 ERA

1.40 WHIP (ugly)

Now, let's take a look at his 2018 season and let's highlight the changes.

29 Starts (basically a full season for only the second time in his career)

12-7 Record

182.33 Innings Pitched (6.28 per start)

3.31 ERA

1.12 WHIP (huge improvement)

Clearly, Zack was healthy and he threw more strikes in 2018 which had a positive impact on all of his numbers.  So, he finally figured things out and this will be the  new normal, right?  Perhaps, but his 2018 season was buoyed by an exceptionally strong finish to the year (8-1 Record and a 1.59 ERA, for example), so was it a hot streak or not?

More worrisome is the start to his 2019 Spring Training cycle where he has been "the old Zack" through two Grapefruit League starts.  Yes, two starts in St Lucie scream small sample size, but he has a 10.13 ERA and a 2.63 WHIP in those outings so that's not good, either.

All of this brings me back to my original question and that is which Zack are we going to get this year?  The 2018 version would be worth signing to an extension and he would be an above average #3 starter moving forward.  The pre-2018 version would NOT be worth signing to an extension, due to his consistent injury history and overall lack of efficiency.  Plus, he will pitch the 2019 season as a 29 year old, so his extension will take him into his 30's, which is always a point of contention with pitchers.

Another problem is that he will want to "finally get paid" and his contract will likely be inflated a bit on the heels of what COULD have been a career year in 2018.  It is a tough spot for Brodie, especially when you need to pay Jake this year and Noah in the near future.

So, when in doubt, I like to ask myself what is MOST likely to occur moving forward.  In Zack's case, which version to you think is most likely to show up in 2019 and beyond?  Will the money required to keep him around match what you think he will provide the team?

I am not in love with his track record, so I would let him finish the last year of his contract and move on in 2020. Don't forget that the team will have significant money coming off the books after this year (Frazier, Vargas and Lagares), so the resources are there to find a more reliable replacement.  

We don't need another injury prone and/or inefficient player on a long term deal which is where this is headed, in my opinion.

In short, I hope Brodie is smarter than Sandy.