Dear Omar:
Look, we all know that there’s one fact about one position on the New York Mets. There will never be a minor league catcher promoted to Queens and given the starting catcher position. Never, no way, uh uh.
The Mets will always have a seasoned veteran, preferably one with NL experience, who has a ‘book’ on current MLB hitters, and can help manager a particularly young rotation.
No, Jerry Grote isn’t available anymore.
With that in mind, and the fact that no one seems to dancing in the halls over Brian Schneider, let me suggest an approach for 2010.
Let’s make an assumption that small market teams, due to salary restrictions, do actually start rookie catchers. A good example is Jesus Flores, on the Nats, who, if he still was Met property, wouldn’t be playing in Queens.
Therefore, a good place to look for your next catcher is, not the prospects coming up in the next two seasons, but the catchers currently on the roster of the small market teams, that have these prospects that are maturing, and will probably be looking to pair some salary.
So…
It is the general consensus that the top 7 catching prospects in baseball today are:
Matt Wieters - Orioles - played 2008 in A+/AA, batting .300+ at both levels… currently listed as the 4th catcher on the Baltimore depth chart behind Greg Zaun (38 yrs. old), Guillermo Quiroz (28-yr old backup), and Chad Moeller (34-yr old ex-Yankee). Most probably ETA is full time 2010.
Buster Posey - Giants – big time 1st rounder in 2008 – big time winter ball stats – will play A+/AA ball in 2090 and probable ETA is not until 2011. Already listed 4th on the Giants’ parent depth chart. Current catchers include Bengie Molina (turning 35 in July), Pablo Sandoval (ex-prospect – turns 23 in August – batted .345 in 2008 for Giants in part time role as C/1B), and Steven Holm (sub at best)
Carlos Santana - Indians - Current Cleveland catchers include Victor Martinez (30-yr old lifetime .298 hitter; spent most of 2008 hurt; had 25 HRs/114 RBIs/.301 in 2007)), and Kelly Shoppach (29-yr old – 21 HRs/.261 in 2007)
Jesus Montero - Yankees - see below.
J.P. Arenciba - Blue Jays - played equal time in 2008 at both the A and AA level, hitting .322//527/.850 combined, with 27 HRs and 105 RBIs – This is your future Toronto catcher in 2010. Currently 3rd on parent depth chart. Currently on the parent squad is Rod Barajas (34-yr old in September, lifetime ,245 hitter)
.
Wilin Rosario - Rockies - Rosario just finished a season in rookie ball, so he’s years away from the Bigs.
Brett Lawrie - Brewers - a 2008 draft pick, Lawrie is projected as a future catcher, but was drafted last year as a SS.
A few general observations:
1. There is no one currently on the Orioles that is worth trading for and I’m sure Wieters will be the Baltimore catcher, come 2010, for many years to come.
2. It sure seems to me that the Giants are going to have to make a big time decision at the end of the 2010 season as to who is their long term catcher, Sandoval or Posey. Based on current projections, it should be Posey, leaving Sandoval available for the right trade. Also, Molina will be a free agent at the end of this season, but he’ll be 36 next year.
3. A perfect example of my scenario above. Martinez is a real time star and Shoppach deserves his own full time gig. The only downside here is the fact that this is an American League team and neither of the two existing catchers have a ‘book’ on NL hitters. Also, Martinez is a restricted free agent after the 2009 season, with a $7MM club option and a $250K buyout!
4. It really doesn’t matter who is catching where in the Yankees chain. They would never trade, for anyone, a top catcher to the Mets.
5. Arenciba is your future catcher here, and there is no one on the current squad worth pursuing.
6. There’s no sense in analyzing the Colorado situation since Rosario is so far off.
7. Ditto Milwaukee.
So… there seems to be one obvious player to go after in the off-season, and things will be much easier since he’s a restricted free agent.
Omar, go get Victor Martinez.
Mack
1 comment:
Good analysis from the past - and obviously, Omar did not heed your advice to get Victor Martinez, who did quite well thereafter.
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