Jeremy Mand: The Mets need to end this weird era

The 2021 Mets started off promising. Their starting pitching was superb, their defense was the best they had in years, there were too many good hitters in that lineup not to expect them to turn it around eventually. 

But the season ended up being yet again another microcosm of a unique problem that has plagued the Mets for at least the last half dozen years. On paper you look at the roster and think and start to fantasize about what it could be if they all click—Jeff McNeil can compete for a batting title; Brandon Nimmo is an OBP machine; Dom Smith is a budding young superstar; Francisco Lindor is a top-10 MVP caliber player; Jacob deGrom is a HoF level starter; Michael Conforto is an All Star; and Pete Alonso is the next Mark McGwire. How could we all be so wrong? 

The truth is, we weren’t wrong to dream, but the reality is that all these collections of good players never seem to be good at the same time. And that is just weird to me…

Conforto has been extremely good and extremely bad at various times. Lindor was an MVP caliber player but he was unequivocally bad at the plate for most of the season. I don’t even know what to make of Dom, McNeil and J.D. Davis who each have shown tremendous bats for stretches of their career and had no indication of hitting at replacement level levels, but at the end of the season, there they were essentially replacement-level players, with a collective WAR of about 1. For comparison, Javy Baez got 2.5 WAR in 60 games with the team. 

So now, beyond that collection of players across the roster, there are tons of players with legitimate question marks beyond widely varying performance expectations—deGrom’s elbow; Noah Syndegaards recovery; Carlos Carrasco’s age; Taijuan Walker’s 1st half/2nd half splits; is James McCann really that bad? Is Edwin Diaz the one we saw in 2018 for the Mariners or 2020 in the shortened season, or is he Armando Benitez?

All this leads to is one conclusion, there are really only two players that you can reliably count on long-term and that’s Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, who after a rough start showed who he probably will be. Beyond that, everything is a question mark—which leads to another sobering conclusion, the Mets may need to and probably should rebuild. 

The good news is, a Mets rebuild may not have to look like the tank jobs that have colored the game over the last decade. Cohen’s money gives the Mets the chance to compete while building from within by filling in with free agents on short-term deals to fill roster holes. The team also has a handful of very elite prospects about 1-2 years, perhaps less, from making their MLB debuts. Let me be very clear: Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos are all elite prospects and could all be + MLB starters by 2023. They also have two very good pitching prospects, when healthy, in Matt Allan and J.T. Ginn, who could also skyrocket up the system to join the team in 2023-2024. 

So, actually rebuilding and winning could look a lot like winning. The one heartache is probably letting Conforto walk — not because we don’t want to keep him, but because it would help us recoup additional draft capital for what will be the most important draft of the next 10 years (with two first round picks and perhaps compensation for Conforto walking). I imagine going into 2023, the Mets will have a top 10 farm system depending on who we draft, who develops further this year, and assuming Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, and Vientos don't make enough appearances at the MLB level. 

No matter who the Mets name as the eventual President of Baseball Operations and/or GM, I expect the Mets to come out swinging in free agency this year—I would be surprised if they did not re-sign Baez, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Loup, Jonathan Villar and Syndergaard. I also would be shocked if they didn’t sign 2 no QO players such as Starling Marte, Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer, Tommy Pham, and Chris Taylor.

I also expect a slew of trades as the Mets 40-man roster is at its max already, with players like J.D. Davis, Dom Smith, Jeff McNeil all likely to go for—what I think should be—low-level high upside prospects to help form the future bench and bullpen.