10/23/21

Reese Kaplan -- From the Outside Isn't Always Good Business


One type of baseball fan has blinders on in that everyone on his or her team is by far the best option for the Mets to retain as the players in question produce otherworldly numbers when wearing some combination of orange and blue.  Then there are the other type of baseball fan who believes that consistent losing by the Mets as a team means that outsiders are needed to push the team forward into contention.  Furthering this belief are hot weeks or hot individual games that draw a lot of attention.  

This past week one non-Met who garnered an awful lot of attention is the Los Angeles Dodgers' version of Ben Zobrist, a player who is credible with the bat, the glove and can play all over the field.  For LA the man in question is Chris Taylor who started off with the Mariners back in 2014 at the age of 23.  He then played almost exclusively shortstop.  He was kind of up and down with the bat and after an even-up trade for pitching suspect (not prospect) Zach Lee, he's been with Los Angeles since 2016.

Upon arriving at Dodger Stadium Taylor was made into a utility man, adding other infield and outfield positions to his playing resume.  He has now six positions on his baseball card, only missing out on first base, catcher and pitcher.  In three of those seasons he's exceeded 500 ABs playing all over the place, delivering as many as 21 HRs and driving in as many as 73 runs while stealing in the lower double digits with his high being 17 in 2017.  His batting average as a Dodger is .265 to accompany all that versatility.  

Right away people are clamoring for him to be a primary target for the New York Mets as they enter the 2021-2022 off season.  There is surely merit to having someone who can play well all over the field, but his current salary is already $7.2 million and his Thursday night 3 HR feat in the NLCS will surely push his asking price well north of $10 million per season.  Given the Monopoly-money reality of baseball contracts, that's not an unreasonable number but you do have to question if it makes sense.

The Mets have also employed a player who has spent some time at second base, shortstop and third base who has had an up and down career playing all over the place.  This gentleman averages 16 HRs, 54 RBIs and 39 SBs over a full season along with a .258 batting average.  Jonathan Villar this past season for the Mets was more good than bad, finishing with 18 HRs and 42 RBIs in 454 ABs while hitting .249.  For this effort the Mets paid him $3.55 million for one year.  

So the question in my mind is whether or not it makes any sense to pursue Taylor who will command at least double what Villar earns when the Mets already have a guy capable of infield and outfield on the roster named Jeff McNeil.  For a refresher, McNeil is a lifetime .298 hitter (which includes his terrible 2021 season), averaging 16 HRs and 67 RBIs in a single season.  For that effort he was recently paid $642K for the 2021 season.  So wouldn't a combination of bench player Villar and versatile player McNeil cost a lot less in aggregate and deliver more?  

Granted, I am not usually in the Mets-Mania group when it comes to the roster (or front office) construction.  However, as a business proposition it would seem to make little sense to pursue the same-aged Chris Taylor when Jonathan Villar and Jeff McNeil combined would cost less than the NLCS hero looking to cash in on his high profile production. I'm all for reinforcing the roster with resources already here and from the outside, but not when it comes at prices that might deter the Mets from addressing other needs when that contract proposal really doesn't have to be made.  

13 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Me? Not really watching Taylor play, I would keep Jammin’ Jeff and Villar. McNeil almost has to have a bounce back season, and Villa is a very solid 300-400 AB guy, who happened to hit 70 points higher at home than on road, where home hitting is a scarce commodity.

Tom Brennan said...

But, if Steve Cohen wants to spend with great abandon to remake the team, it is his dime.

Tom Brennan said...

Villar offensive-output-wise reminds me of Tommie Agee…pop and speed, and modest average.

melissa said...

Totally agree with you Reese! I don't want the Mets to trade McNeil (who is also my favorite player). I really believe if he can rediscover his old swing and return to the McNeil of old, he's sooo much better than Taylor. Fingers 🤞.

Gary Seagren said...

Yes and less that upper deck blast Tommy hit in old Shea back in the day. I wonder if it would have left Citi-field completely and I'll go to my grave wondering what the exit velo was :)

Tom Brennan said...

Melissa, lots of McNeil fans here at Macks Mets.

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, they say it wan't televised, but it was. Back in those days, they were all televised. Sadly, I was at my aunt's watching the game on a fuzzy, B&W 9 inch TV. How they could not have kept that film was criminal. I don't know if it would have gone out of Citifield, but at the time, I wondered if it would have left Yankee Stadium. Very possibly.

Mack Ade said...

I vote to not add another 3 home run, Kirk Neuinhouse wonder (sp).

Gary Seagren said...

Tom the older I get the more I appreciate the time we grew up in when it was all about the game not salaries, attitudes, analytics and "Play ball" had a whole different meaning.

Gary Seagren said...

Tom I think your right I'm almost sure I saw the game 1970 I believe.

Gary Seagren said...

April 10 69' was the homer.

bill metsiac said...

A lot of fans suffer from what has been termed GIGS, or Grass Is Greener Syndrome. The symptoms are looking at other teams' players and assuming they are better than ours.

Often, the absolute opposite is true, and when the Mets (yes, even the Yankees) bring them in they are nowhere near as productive here as they were elsewhere.

I prefer players who have proven themselves in NY. And in the current Mets situation, with 4 or more outstanding prospects a year or 2 away, I don't want to block them with outsiders signed to 3+ year deals.
McNeil, Smith, JDD and Villar fill holes nicely here, and hopefully will bring in outside talent in trade once the new kids are ready.

I'll be very disappointed if we don't get at least 2 productive MLers out of Mauricio, Baty, Vientos and especially Alvarez.

Don't trade them or fill their prospective slots as long as they produce.

Anonymous said...

One Mets Fan General Observations Over The Years

Roster construction to me is all about having decent depth and balance. One of these is not enough to have.

In other words, you don't want to just be strong in one area of the game, say starting pitching or homeruns. It's the balance. There are other considerations to make.

The 2021 NYM season went down hill second half mainly because of balance and depth missing. A third one could be player attitudes. Not too good and it showed. A lack of professionalism.

When the Mets chose to not re-signed Zach Wheeler after the 2021 season, and I understand why, and then Noah went down hurt, only Jake remained from their previous 2021 season's top three pitcher rotation. Management had wisely acquired Taijuan Walker, Marcus Stroman, and Carlos Carrasco to try to fill these voids. Walker second half showed arm weariness from an injury season prior, Carrasco a hamstring injury plus a more recent stat sheet showing less innings pitched last two seasons prior. And Stroman is not a one or two starter.

The NYM had also acquired a couple of starters for insurance purpose in Lucchesi and Hill. But the lack of a strong top three (without Noah, Zach, and Jacob) was definitely a huge part of the team's downfall causation. Too much to absorb for one team.

2. The overall reluctance (over the seasons) to infuse their best MiLB players into the 25-26 man roster who have shown considerable promise, instead signing other teams older FA stars who don't always come through for multiple reasons sometimes, most namely previous accomplishment and financial savings.

The Reason.

This is NY and everyone here wants to be a winner right now, this second, like yesterday even. They see FA veterans as definite and proven way to do this. But this should not be so easy a thing to assume here anymore. It can blow up as well.

In 2022, the NYM will probably do what they have pretty much always done in this way and re-sign their in-house veterans (most of which showed decline in 2021) and not more wisely use them in trades for other roster change purposes as they probably should do, thus utilizing the younger promising MiLB Met players who have gained much notice and deserve a shot to start in 2022 and make their own mark.

My Off Season Do_List

1. Sign a lefty star like FA starter Carlos Rodon (CWS) (2021: 13-5, 2.37 ERA, with a .957 WHIP which is Jacob-worthy) at any cost. Repeat, ANY COST! Look, if this were the Mets only outside move (Rodon) that they made this off season, and the Mets fielded players from within, I think that the chances of the 2022 NYM getting to the playoffs (and beyond) would increase their probability by about 20%.

One Mo' Time

Rotation 2022: 1. Jake 2. Rodon 3. Noah 4. Walker 5. Megill with a couple of decent starters who could possibly be utilized wisely as sub-ins for the starting five when needed to insure seasonal endurance. This idea as opposed to say a six-man rotation, which I for one am not against for this particular hard throwing rotation. A plan needs to be devised now.

Field: 1B Alonso 2B Cano (not sure on his status or intentions at this time though) or Wilmer Reyes, Carlos Cortes. The two bag is covered people. SS Lindor 3B Mark Vientos LF JD Davis (because he is a batter who can hit for high average and decent HR's as well) CF Nimmo RF (Lee, Mauricio, or Mangum) C Francisco Alvarez, because the Mets have literally nothing to lose in trying him there, and it will be his job anyway in 2022. He's "seriously skilled" are what the scouts are all saying.

By this, if say Noah or Jake were to go down (even just for a little while) no one sweats it with Rodon in the house.

L-G-M!