Remember's Ramblings: October 16, 2021
And this will definitely be a ramble as I sit here tonight just after Boston evens their series with Houston.
First: Can we just get these playoffs and World Series done already so we can move into the hot-stove season and maybe get a front office in place in Queens? Are all you other Mets fans as disinterested in these games as I am? I generally pick the teams I want to win for every series and things are not going very well for me. Tampa over Boston . . nope. Cardinals over Dodgers . . nope. Giants over Dodgers . . nope. OK, so Red Sox over Yankees was a win and I was rather ambivalent about the Braves-Brewers series. Now I guess it is Red Sox over Houston and Braves over Dodgers, then Braves over Red Sox. We'll see.
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Next: Speaking of not going very well for me, I just looked up my pre-season predictions that I wrote up in April: Remember's 2021 MLB Preditions
That was pretty ugly. Don't take my writings to your bookies! Of course I had the Mets winning it all.
About the only thing I actually got right was my predicted demise of the Nationals. I wrote that the Padres and Dodgers were the two best teams in the league by far. I guess one out of two ain't bad. I don't know what happened to the Friars - they had the makings of a great year.
I did say that the Giants were the best team in the league to not make the playoffs. I should have left off the last clause.
Hmm, maybe it wasn't quite as bad as I first thought. I did pick the White Sox for the A.L. Central and the Cards and Brewers to finish 1-2 in the N.L. Central (ok, 2-1, but . .)
And I did say that the Angels offense was lead by the best player in baseball. Unfortunately in April, I wasn't thinking that guy was Ohtani.
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And Last: On a different topic, I got curious about some of the commenter's on the site pining for Kyle Schwarber while setting Michael Conforto out on the first train to anywhere. So I looked them up:
Conforto is 4 days older than Schwarber.
Conforto has 346 more at bats: 2551 to 2205
Conforto has scored 29 more runs: 400 to 371
Conforto has 128 more hits: 650 to 522
Conforto has 51 more doubles: 141 to 90
Conforto has 46 more RBIs: 396 to 350
Conforto's BA is 18 points higher: .255 to .237
Conforto's OBP is 13 points higher: .356 to .343
Conforto has struck out 8 times less 710 to 718
Conforto has walked 23 time more 360 to 338
Schwarber has 21 more homers: 153 to 132
Schwarber's Slugging PCT is 25 points higher: .493 to .468
Schwarber's OPS is 12 points higher .836 to .824
Conforto has -2 Rdrs across all positions played, Schwarber has -20
Each has made one all star game
Schwarber has been DFA'ed once after a terrible season
Schwarber had a nice bounce back year after a terrible season
Conforto has 15.7 career WAR, Schwarber has 9.0 career WAR
In my own "Runs Produced Ratio" stat * that shows the percentage of runners driven in:
- Total Runners on Base (career): Conforto .143 Schwarber .133
- Total Runners in Scoring Position (career): Conforto .186 Schwarber .153
- Total Runners on Third Base (career): Conforto .239 Schwarber .181
(An interesting note on this was that Schwarber was far worse than his career average in 2021 - his bounce back year. His numbers were awful at just .119 with Runners in Scoring position and .149 with Runners on Third Base)
Tell me again why shipping Conforto out and bringing Schwarber in is a good idea?
Can Conforto not have a bounce back year after a down year which wasn't as bad as Schwarber's terrible year?
* RPR stat was introduced in March 2021 on Mack's Mets blog: ANOTHER Baseball Stat?
Out for now.
9 comments:
1. I don't watch playoff baseball without the Mets.
2. Stop fretting the loss of Conforto. His agent will take him away from the Mets.
Schwarber is an outstanding example of what the Mets DON'T need -- more one dimensional players who can do one task well (in this case, power) -- but little else. I'd rather see 20 HR guys who are healthy and can do a multitude of productive things. I don't relish more fielding-only, homers-only or stolen base-only types.
Yes Mack..my point not so much that I think MC will be back, it's just that he is as good or better than most other FA options.
With Boras, I don't see any way that he'll be back, unless he hasn't signed by Mar 1 and the Mets have a one year option on the table (a la Donaldson or Ozuna)
I would rather have Vientos and Khalil Lee in the outfield than Schwarber - or, for that matter, Conforto, if the latter will require a long (> 2 YEAR) contract. A very comparable player to Conforto, Jay Bruce, started a steep deline about 2 years older than Conforto is now.
I HATE long term contracts (sorry, Francisco). Why? None of them are Cal Ripkin.
All of our predictions got screwed by the tidal wave of injuries. When I make predictions, I often add "if reasonably healthy" or something to that effect. That was NOT the 2021 Mash Unit known as the Mets.
Me? Not watching the playoffs - or even most of the highlights. I did see Freddie Friggin' take Hader deep - THAT was impressive.
I do look at some box scores. That's it.
But, hack to Schwarber - he will be 29 next year. Could be fine - could decline. Why is better than Mark Vientos? Possibly in 2022, but that is it. Vientos' video of her first 3 HRs in AAA showed a rocket to left center; a rocket to right center; and a rocket down the line to right. I want to go with youth here. He and the young Khalil Lee ought to be able to handle a lot of at bats between them. Even Cortes - perhaps premature, but I think he is close to being able to put a hurting on major league pitching.
I would rather see Schwarber's teammate, Hunter Renfroe, than Schwarber.
On Kyle Schwarber
Doesn't really have the sort of statistics that a Mets fan would prefer for playing in right field currently. He's having a .176 BA post season with Boston as well.
Unlike most fans here probably, I don't see him ahead of maybe first seeing how homegrowns Khalil Lee and Jake Mangum handle the right field position and batting against top MLB pitchers. I think it is possible that either Khalil or Jake will grab the right field position in ST.
Something that I have noticed over the years here. It has been obvious to me and others.
I sometimes think that a MLB team's fans may overly emphasize homeruns, as opposed to a player's batting average. I think Javier Baez is a good example of this overall in 2021 and too Kyle Schwarber.
For 2022 in the homerun department. Take a closer look at this.
1. Alonso (1B) 2. Possibly Cano (2B) without the PEDS hopefully. 3. Lindor (SS) 4. Vientos (3B) 5. JD Davis (LF)6. Maybe Alvarez (C) 7. Lee, Mangum, or even Mauricio (who knows) (RF) So right there you have a total of approximately 180-200 seasonal homeruns. Is that not enough homers for you? It is fine by me. I like scoring runs the most as a team statistic by a solid offense who win games.
But the Mets as a team overall gets younger too. Most of these seven players above mentioned can hit for average as well. Then you have one of the top lead off hitters in baseball in Brandon Nimmo to get things rolling.
This is precisely my logic why I have been stressing here the importance of signing (via trade or FA) a really top-flight lefty starter to place between Jake and Noah at the 1-3 top of the Mets rotation. We have guys like Taijuan Walker, Tyler Megill, and Drew Smith who could easily (I believe) handle the four and five slots. Plus some other newer kids as well.
It was mostly the rotation and injuries that crippled the 2021 NY Mets second half. It destroyed everything from team ERA, runs scored against the Mets, run production for the Mets (through slack attitudes of the Mets hitters), and even overall team morale.
Why we cannot all understand this, I do not understand. It's the rotation.
The big contract money needs to go after a top starter like the CWS' lefty Carlos Rodon. I believe that everything else I have suggested for a few weeks here should all nicely fall into place around this one acquisition.
It ain't Einstein's Theory of Relativity here. Is it?
How you guys all enjoying the football season?
NYG and Jets? Oy Vey. Like pushing needles into your corneas.
The NYK have some hope with their new additions. But then again, it's the Knicks. I haven't seen much since Ewing left town there. But there is at least some early hope brewing and that is good.
I think that I predicted here (if I remember correctly) an LA Dodgers versus the NY Yankees preseason.
Why the Yankees?
Because I had thought at the trade deadline if they were not doing as well as they had expected to (and there was some risk with their roster going in) that ownership would go out and get exactly what they needed more player personnel wise via trades to take the AL eastern division.
I was wrong.
But to me, the SF Giants and LA Dodgers were an even pick for the NL western division. But to me, the LAD had more experience with the post season. So I chose them. But Atlanta came storming back second half 2021, once they saw deGrom go down I bet. So it's close with the Braves, they are up a game right now. However, I still pick the Dodgers for the WS anyway. Who knows. Stubborn.
TB
I hate long term contracts to players over 30 years old. Here's why.
Will they come in here as a star, and then maintain that status even after having had some very wealthy success elsewhere with another team prior? Darn good question to ask yourself. I have seen both types of players. It's all their attitude and personal psychology. Now in coming here, they have already proven themselves as elite players and have "made it". So which will we get, a star or a laid back once a star player, who has nothing more to prove?
It can be fools gold sometimes I think.
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